NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

I know we still got a month & a half and to "avoid complacency", but I'd be very surprised if Trump's national support gets above 46%. At this point, I'm expecting a 53-46 national PV ala 2008.

And that's without taking into account my belief that Biden overperforms his numbers due to undecideds breaking strong for him

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

No. That's the self-reported sample, but NYT doesn't weight by self-reported vote

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304740486062759937
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304746758082265088

Right, that's what I'm saying. There is no weighting, so this is a straight Trump +6 self reported sample. Their June poll was a self-reported Trump +1 sample. So them acting surprised that Biden dropped from the previous poll is rich considering the sample is obviously more predisposed to Trump.

The only self-reported vote ID of any of these states that was accurate was the NH poll.

Do they really not weight for that at all? That might explain the relatively high fixation on law & order in these polls, but it's funny that Trump is even losing on that issue.

NY Times can't even push-poll their way to a horserace narrative. There's just no budging with this race & it could perhaps widen further if the first debate is a total disaster for Trump