2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

At this rate, Republicans are really going to have to count on a robust Election Day turnout. Or this is just more proof that more Democrats are motivated to vote right now.

Republicans better hope their voters have a lot of patience because I'm sensing the lines on November 3 are gonna be enormous.

Wouldn't doubt a decent amount of their voters sit the election out due to not wanting to wait in line and/or disenchantment over Trump's dim chances (As if it couldn't get more 1980).

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     56,220       8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     56,646     12.3%
2016:     96,899     18.1%
2018:     97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     43,336     11.2%
2016:     63,166     13.6%
2018:     64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     28,003      7.3%
2016:     51,317    12.0%
2018:     54,015    11.9%
2020:     70,577    14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     34,783    11.4%
2016:     53,752    15.9%
2018:     44,982    12.4%
2020:     58,986    15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     30,465    12.0%
2016:     57,576    19.2%
2018:     60,676    18.3%
2020:     80,335    21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     35,607    13.4%
2016:     45,941    14.7%
2018:     44,556    13.4%
2020:     47,899    12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     26,404    14.2%
2016:     35,782    17.2%
2018:     34,153    16.1%
2020:     53,036    23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     13,429      7.4%
2016:     21,831    11.0%
2018:     21,563    10.4%
2020:     32,696    14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     17,554      9.1%
2016:     23,766    11.9%
2018:     26,381    12.9%
2020:     36,579    17.3%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Do we you have Fort Bend County?

The main reason I haven't gotten Fort Bend County before is that it's pretty annoying to get the early vote numbers from the county site (my preferred method). The Texas Elections site seems to have fairly inconsistent reporting (They didn't have Harris & Williamson's in-person numbers until today). Here are the numbers based on the state reports. Apparently I wasn't looking close enough at the PDF! Here are the county reported numbers:


FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    46,422     13.7%
2016:    59,763     14.8%
2018:    62,886     14.6%
2020:    65,159     13.5%


Also, Fort Bend County seemed to have had some machine problems this week which may or may not have affected turnout.

https://abc13.com/early-voting-in-fort-bend-county-problems-at-the-polls-where-to-vote-polling-locations/7057448/

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(Harris County tweet)

Wow! That's almost 1/3 of Harris' 2016 vote total

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Beto is going to be governor of Texas at some point isn't he?

Either him or Lina Hidalgo

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Could be that a lot of Republican voters are holding out to Election day to vote.

That's certainly what the polls look like, in terms of who's voting early and on November 3. But I'm wondering how reliable they'll end up being. As I said earlier today:

At this rate, Republicans are really going to have to count on a robust Election Day turnout. Or this is just more proof that more Democrats are motivated to vote right now.

Republicans better hope their voters have a lot of patience because I'm sensing the lines on November 3 are gonna be enormous.

Wouldn't doubt a decent amount of their voters sit the election out due to not wanting to wait in line and/or disenchantment over Trump's dim chances (As if it couldn't get more 1980).

Granted, California Democrats also have a tendency to wait until election day to cast their ballots. But a lot of those votes are mail-in votes that are postmarked on election day. Texas doesn't have nearly as big of a vote-by-mail electorate as California

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

For comparison sake...


HARRIS COUNTY: Average early votes per day
2012:      63,877  (+3.2%)
2016:      81,440  (+3.6%)
2018:      71,309  (+3.1%)

HARRIS COUNTY: Average early votes across the first 4 days
2012:      63,188  (+3.2%)
2016:      91,621  (+3.4%)
2018:      76,222  (+3.3%)
2020:  ~120,314  (+4.9%)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How reliable is TargetSmart for early voting? I've been seeing their Texas model shared a bunch on Twitter (Admittedly by conservatives) which shows Republicans leading the early vote 50-42.

I'm just confused considering there's no political party registration in Texas. Do they track who voted in the March primaries or something?

They were horrid in 16+18 dont use them

That's what I thought. They're the only early vote tracker/modeler I've seen that has partisan breakdowns for Texas and that got me suspicious

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm very curious what turnout will look like during the extra week of Texas voting. I know it'll slow down eventually, but there's gonna be some short lines on November 3 at the rate we're going.

I know that might contradict my "Some Republicans may sit out the election if they all vote on 11/3" take earlier today, but perhaps Texas is different?


Harris County's 24 hour precincts will also be interesting, assuming the state doesn't put the kibosh on it

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(Tweet snip)

Plus, Travis County is at 40% of total 2016 turnout!!!

186,280/468,720 = 39.74%
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct16.pdf

Denton & Williamson Counties reached 50% of their total 2016 turnout today. On Day 4 of 2018 early voting, they were at 28% & 37%.


                        2016          2020 votes after today

Denton            298645     ~152423
Williamson       203081     ~102013


The suburbs are fired up!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Texas is looking like a totally different state than 2016

This really feels like a state that's gonna throw pollsters off the most this election. The electorate has grown & changed so much since 2018, let alone 2016. Not to mention the general difficulties in polling Hispanic-heavy states.

Not saying that Biden's gonna win by 5 points or anything, but I'm seeing nothing that's leading me to believe Trump is gonna do as well or better than Cruz in margin or percents. This is looking like a nailbiter at the very least.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Maybe, but also Biden kinda did triage the state basically

With the strong momentum around flipping the State House and the heavy-lifting by TX Dems, Beto, Hegar & now the Senate Majority PAC, Biden "triaging" the state probably doesn't make much of a difference

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 4 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 16)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   252,752     12.6%
2016:   366,483     16.4%
2018:   304,889     13.0%
2020:   511,675     20.6%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   151,141     12.8%
2016:   232,807     18.1%
2018:   222,957     16.7%
2020:   275,607     19.7%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   147,251     15.1%
2016:   195,816     18.2%
2018:   178,814     15.9%
2020:   227,291     18.8%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   138,203     15.1%
2016:   177,661     17.0%
2018:   153,135     13.9%
2020:   209,439     17.6%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     74,805     11.8%
2016:   157,571     21.7%
2018:   147,325     19.0%
2020:   186,280     21.8%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     72,485     15.8%
2016:   122,582     22.8%
2018:   119,114     20.5%
2020:   162,458     25.0%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     56,044     14.5%
2016:     83,286     17.9%
2018:     82,914     16.7%
2020:   152,423     27.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    36,427      9.5%
2016:    66,657     15.6%
2018:    66,887     14.7%
2020:    87,695     18.0%

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    58,227     17.1%
2016:    80,321     19.9%
2018:    78,519     18.2%
2020:    92,097     19.1%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    43,236     14.2%
2016:    65,635     19.4%
2018:    54,427     15.1%
2020:    73,101     18.7%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     39,058     15.4%
2016:     72,714     24.2%
2018:     74,933     22.5%
2020:   104,281     27.7%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    45,490     17.2%
2016:    58,615     18.8%
2018:    55,500     16.6%
2020:    63,334     17.1%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    33,085     17.9%
2016:    44,950     21.6%
2018:    41,145     19.4%
2020:    66,554     29.1%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    17,183      9.5%
2016:    27,678     14.0%
2018:    26,046     12.6%
2020:    40,214     18.4%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    22,403     11.7%
2016:    30,272     15.2%
2018:    31,625     15.4%
2020:    46,341     21.9%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yeah, Travis always has high turnout. In 2016, the county had a turnout of 90%. The fact that they’re keeping up with 2016 early voting is a good sign that they’ll hit they number again.

In 2016 Travis had a turnout of 63.8%

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/travis.shtml

You’re right, the 90% is the amount of people registered to vote. Big difference!

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2016/oct/14/bruce-elfant/bruce-elfant-says-90-plus-percent-eligible-travis-/

A remarkable stat, nonetheless!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Today's EV count at Harris will be around 70,000

If true, Harris would jump from 39% to 48% of 2016's turnout

On Day 5 in 2016, Harris finished at 38% of 2012's turnout

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This is bad for Biden.
High turnout in these even slightly red counties does not help.

So it's come to this. Folks are now saying a high turnout election favors TRUMP rather than the Democrat.

What's next? Trump somehow getting COVID and folks saying that it's bad for Biden?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 5 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 17)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   313,405     15.7%
2016:   452,124     20.2%
2018:   380,262     16.3%
2020:   585,693     23.6%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   186,271     15.8%
2016:   279,076     21.7%
2018:   272,062     20.4%
2020:   315,654     22.6%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   182,334     18.7%
2016:   239,876     22.3%
2018:   219,947     19.6%
2020:   269,023     22.2%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   168,477     18.3%
2016:   217,674     20.8%
2018:   193,521     17.6%
2020:   247,225     20.8%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:     94,724     15.0%
2016:   190,834     26.3%
2018:   181,739     23.4%
2020:   218,938     25.6%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     91,782     20.0%
2016:   151,560     28.2%
2018:   145,349     25.1%
2020:   194,225     29.9%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     70,513     18.2%
2016:   103,799     22.3%
2018:   105,113     21.1%
2020:   171,137     30.3%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     45,011     11.7%
2016:     79,883     18.7%
2018:     78,883     17.3%
2020:     96,833     19.8%

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     73,186     21.5%
2016:   102,520     25.4%
2018:     97,258     22.5%
2020:   115,896     24.0%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     52,097     17.1%
2016:     76,886     22.7%
2018:     63,508     17.6%
2020:     84,020     21.5%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     48,488     19.1%
2016:     88,202     29.4%
2018:     91,227     27.4%
2020:   117,175     31.1%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     56,527     21.3%
2016:     71,915     23.1%
2018:     68,151     20.4%
2020:     76,039     20.6%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     21,093     11.7%
2016:     33,987     17.2%
2018:     30,750     14.9%
2020:     45,043     20.6%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     27,639     14.4%
2016:     36,612     18.4%
2018:     37,510     18.3%
2020:     53,742     25.4%

No Galveston numbers as they haven't updated their reporting

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm willing to do an avatar switch bet with any Republican on this site about TX this year.

If the result in Texas is worse for Biden than Trump winning by 2 (so any margin for Trump than 2%), I will adopt the avatar of your choice FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

If the result in Texas is better for Biden than that (Trump wins by less than 2 or Biden wins), you have to be a D-TX FOR SIX MONTHS after the certification of results.

Who wants to take me up on this? First come first served.

You that confident of Biden's chances?  I feel like if the race is really within 2 points in Texas, Biden (or Bloomberg if you're out there!?!?) should invest $50 million in the state.  He has the resources.

At the same time, it's not like no one is campaigning there. Texas Democrats have done a lot of work getting their folks to turn out & flip the State House. Wouldn't be surprised to see Biden get reverse coattails there

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 6 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 18)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   384,618     19.2%
2016:   527,631     23.6%
2018:   468,549     20.0%
2020:   628,708     25.3%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   228,376     19.4%
2016:   311,307     24.2%
2018:   307,342     23.0%
2020:   341,607     24.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   195,494     21.3%
2016:   255,371     24.4%
2018:   226,845     20.7%
2020:   270,323     22.7%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   109,697     17.3%
2016:   212,995     29.4%
2018:   203,582     26.2%
2020:   234,016     27.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   112,644     24.6%
2016:   178,634     33.3%
2018:   172,344     29.7%
2020:   206,513     31.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     87,078     22.5%
2016:   127,965     27.5%
2018:   127,253     25.6%
2020:   180,768     32.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     50,387     13.1%
2016:     87,796     20.5%
2018:     85,809     18.8%
2020:   101,868     20.9%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     58,486     19.2%
2016:     84,770     25.0%
2018:     70,384     19.5%
2020:     88,103     22.5%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     54,904     21.7%
2016:     96,042     32.0%
2018:     99,877     30.0%
2020:   123,561     32.8%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     22,291     12.4%
2016:     36,474     18.5%
2018:     33,492     16.2%
2020:     47,280     21.6%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     31,966     16.7%
2016:     40,856     20.5%
2018:     40,934     20.0%
2020:     54,214     25.6%

No updates at this time from Fort Bend, Galveston, Montgomery & Tarrant

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is this a share of total RV voters or % previous election totals?

Share of total RV voters. Though I can certainly do another post with how it compares to previous election % totals

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 6 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 18)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   384,618     19.2%
2016:   527,631     23.6%
2018:   468,549     20.0%
2020:   628,708     25.3%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   228,376     19.4%
2016:   311,307     24.2%
2018:   307,342     23.0%
2020:   341,607     24.4%


BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   195,494     21.3%
2016:   255,371     24.4%
2018:   226,845     20.7%
2020:   270,323     22.7%

- SNIP -

This is somewhat misleading, because in previous years early voting in TX began on a monday, but this year it began on a Tuesday. So the first 6 days in previous years includes 5 weekdays and a Saturday, whereas this year it is 4 weekdays, a Saturday, and a Sunday. Since turnout is typically lower on weekends and especially on Sundays (with limited hours on Sundays) that probably makes the comparison understate how relatively high turnout really is this year. For example, Bexar county probably would not be behind 2016 if the comparison were based on same days of the week.

I was more anticipating a page of "TX voting slowed to a crawl. I knew it was too good to be true" takes.

Just posting them as I see them. I'm very aware of the different weekdays between 2012/2016/2018/2020. I'm not sure how I'm gonna do the comparison updates when we get to the extra week of voting (Perhaps comparing it to turnout in those years)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Really curious what the numbers are for the other counties in Monstro’s daily posts. I’m excited as hell!

I may add some line graphs as well to the update since we are thru the first week

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

~27% of the voters so far in El Paso County didn't vote in 2016.

Yet more evidence that this isn't the same Texas as 2016. Perhaps not even 2018

I wish we had similar stats for other TX counties. Especially Williamson & the Dallas suburbs

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm also getting a lot of texts and I'm in California and a non-voter.

I've gotten a text every 2-3 days to phonebank. Either from Biden, Bernie, or County Democrats people