CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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After the earlier discussions in this thread, it's gonna be really funny seeing Orange County vote No.

Though sad the IE is such a strong Yes bloc. Riverside I'm expecting to lean Yes, but I thought San Bernardino County changed a corner. Then again, crosstabs in one poll & all.

Ah well, nearly 5 months to go until I stop seeing every California/Newsom-related story being framed within the context of this recall. That's easily been one of my biggest annoyances with this recall.

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Gonna be fun when the networks insta-call this for Newsom and the right freaks out.

As fun as Atlas freaking out if/when Orange County votes against the recall

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Two recent nuggets involving John Cox

From a Times of San Diego interview released yesterday:

Q: Do you support or oppose Rep. Mike Levin’s bill to permanently ban new oil and gas leases off the Southern California coastline? Why or why not? What current state rules would you lift, if in the state’s power?

Cox: "California could be the Saudi Arabia of the West. And we should be. We should explore oil and gas safely. We should also produce more natural gas. California could be fueling our country. It would make California more prosperous and our country more safe."


and this tweet regarding his campaign funds:

@rpyers: "Between Cox's 2021 and 2022 committees, he has now reported raising a combined total of $7.75 million, around $670K of that total coming from individuals not named John Cox."


https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2021/06/07/what-say-cox-faulconer-jenner-and-ose-top-gop-rivals-in-recall-tackle-tough-qs/

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1402004285194326034

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Newsom is gonna handily defeat the recall and the map will look identical to the 2018 governors race (With the possible exception of San Bernardino & Merced flipping against him).

Schools & colleges are planning for 100% on-campus learning for the fall, music venues are announcing concerts & festivals on an hourly basis, theme parks & restaurants are packed, 2/3 of the state are vaccinated in some way, case/death rates are around record lows & the French Laundry already feels like ancient history. And we don't even know when the recall is taking place!

Honestly, if it wasn't for every news story blanketing every breath he makes as related to this, I doubt most Californians would even know what or why Newsom is facing a recall.

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I agree. Perhaps Orange will also vote for the recall itsself. That said, Newsom will again win Orange and Bernardine counties in next year's regular election, which he will win with ease.

I guess I'll be "bold" and say that I don't see Orange voting for the recall. If they do, it'll be by like 1-2%.

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I don't know which take is more laughable. "California GOP Governor Larry Elder will win in 2022 because B I D E N M I D T E R M" or "It's actually bad to encourage more people to vote"

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Vote by mail design flaw?

Evidently they're meant to help visual impaired voters find/see where to do sign the ballot. "They also serve as a visual check for elections officials to ensure that a ballot has not been left inside an envelope uncounted." I don't get this explanation because isn't it obvious whether an envelope has been opened or not? Some spokesperson then goes on to say voters can fold their ballots "another way" if they're concerned.

We've had those ballot envelopes for as long as I can remember (At least since 2008). As for the ballot itself, it's not one uniform ballot design all across the state. Mine looks different from the one in the video and there didn't seem to be a way to see the votes through the holes.

There has been previous elections where one of my filled-in votes can be seen, but it was as simple as folding another way or stuffing it another way. But I'm sure for someone that just wants to get it turned in, it's easy to overlook

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Nearly 600K ballots have been returned in California already.

Total ballots returned = 578,191
Democrats 334,389 (57.8%)
Ind/Other 128,372 (22.2%)
Republicans 115,430 (20.0%)

https://www.dropbox.com/transfer/AAAAAGsEIwg3FoQZQ0tj5RiXoG5qV9Wr381D1YX38USpHR1C0sb7FTA

Update for the next page

Total ballots returned = 1,076,724
Dems 604,981 (56.2%)
Reps 236,038 (21.9%)
Ind/Other 236,002 (21.9%)

Is this good or bad that the Democratic share decreases with each update? From which areas are these votes coming in? I guess the total number is still way, way too small for any estimation how this might go. I still struggle to see how Newsom loses, though the polls aren't that great.

To be fair, the GOP share also decreases with each update.

And also to be fair, we've had like 2 updates.

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Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

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Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Funny that never being President somehow equals having no political future. For the next 5 1/2 years he is going to be governor of California, after that who knows maybe a cabinet position/ Senator or maybe just being an influential private citizen. Sounds like  a political future to me.

I certainly agree with you.

If Suburbia thinks Newsom has no political future in his first term as governor, I can't imagine how much incessant gloating he'd be doing about Jerry Brown after his 1992 presidential run went bust.

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The NorCal/SoCal divide is really about Northern California Democrats being better organized to get support for running statewide. The Democratic base in the past was mostly northern and that still is somewhat true when it comes to who can build up support to run statewide. I've never heard anyone complain about SoCal not having enough clout over NorCal.

I have my qualms about a lack of SoCal representation in Sacramento/DC in recent years, but honestly I relate more with NorCal/Bay Area politics than SoCal.

Not only are SoCal Dems lacking in the organizational side, there's just so many ideological splintering down here. Not just regionally but also at the local/municipal level. Down here, it's like a patchwork of varying levels of liberal/leftist politics.

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https://twitter.com/CA_Talks/status/1434329635412529161?s=20

Also in the thread they note that those who oppose are more likely to go later, either voting this coming week or day of.

What I am asking myself is, "How can the recall have any chance of success if it's only up 50-48 in Orange County?".

Only feels like yesterday folks were adamant about OC snapping back to pre-2008 partisanship & supporting the recall by double-digits

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That the CA GOP managed to screw this up should not be a shock to anyone that follows California politics. This just happened to be the biggest spotlight for them, but this is the exact same playbook they've done for the last decade.

Moderate Republican steps up who the party fawns over, conservative enters the race and gains traction, schizophrenic tug-of-war ensues between moderate/conservative candidates, moderate Republican slowly embraces conservative red meat, Democrat points & smiles in the background.

Only this time, the conservative is the preferred GOP choice now and the moderate Republican flamed out. If things weren't bad before for the CA GOP, this recall may actually make things worse for them in the foreseeable future.

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The reason Democrats did better over the weekend, despite the big Republican close with in-person voting is that in-person votes are only a small share of the total ballots cast.

The combined number of in-person ballots we received by these two counties was just 20,000, which is paltry compared to the over 200,000 total ballots reported by the two counties during the same period. Essentially, Republicans are cashing in on the in-person voting, roughly doubling their share of the electorate.  But that’s less than a 10% slice of the electorate.

Not surprised at all. I didn't even know they were doing in-person voting for the recall.

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On Monday, Newsom will be holding an anti-recall rally with President Biden in Long Beach.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/biden-campaign-california-gov-gavin-newsom-eve-recall-vote-n1278830


I'm tempted to drive out for this

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Also (I'm surprised no one posted this):

Orrin Heatlie, the one that launched the recall effort last February, recently tested positive for COVID-19 and has been self-isolating for the last 2 weeks. While his wife/daughter were vaccinated, he himself was not.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-07/california-governor-recall-leader-covid-19

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So far, the only outlets that seem to be covering this press conference are Fox News, The Sun & The Daily Mail. No state news outlet, no regional news outlet, no local news outlet

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At this point, I'm only interested in the following:

1. If No gets 60% or higher
2. How Orange, Riverside & San Bernardino votes on the recall
3. How much Kevin Faulconer gets & where he places
4. Who enters/drops out of the 2022 gubernatorial race in the next few months

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Posting crap like this will NOT help Republican turnout. These people are incredibly stupid.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/09/wayne-root-larry-elder-will-win-california-recall-electionbut-will-lose-rigged-election-just-like-trump/

"Your vote doesn't count!"

What a horrible way to speak to your voters.

I wonder how close the CAGOP could have made this race. An outright victory would have been unlikely regardless, and the CAGOP are infamous for being incompetent, but I feel they could have done a much better job during this campaign, and get a morale victory for 2022, but this didn't happen. Will the CAGOP learn anything from this?

I really hope this recall puts to bed the takes of "The CA GOP aren't a terrible state party, CA is just so blue".

No, the CA GOP are a terrible & incompetent state party. They've somehow gotten even more out-of-touch & crazier with this recall than without it. I kinda expected it, but even I'm surprised how much they fell off the deep end.

Even a single-digit result would've gave them tons of momentum statewide & nationally. Instead, Newsom may actually improve on his 2018 numbers for tomorrow & next year's races. I also wouldn't be surprised if he becomes more emboldened to advance even more progressive/liberal policies.

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Perhaps them picking up those four House districts made them cocky.

And recalling State Sen. Josh Newman in the 2018 primaries (Though he won the seat back last November)

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The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts
 

Inland Empire gets no respect. Sad!

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Total ballots returned = 7,327,713
Dems 3,852,837 (52.6%)
Reps 1,819,002 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,655,874 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (37%) Reps (34%), Ind/Other (25%)

Total ballots returned = 7,757,346
Dems 4,070,655 (52.5%)
Reps 1,931,763 (24.9%)
Ind/Other 1,754,928 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (39%), Reps (36%), Ind/Other (27%)

Gonna steal wbrocks67's thunder for a sec.


Total ballots returned: 8,722,954
Dems 4,509,992 (51.7%)
Reps 2,233,539 (25.6%)
Ind/Other 1,979,423 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (43%), Reps (42%), Ind/Other (30%)

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Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +26.1.

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/snip
(as of about 1:00 PT) Looks like terrible ED turnout in OC.

This doesn't surprise me at all. In-person voting was never gonna be a significant factor, especially when everyone is mailed a ballot and off-year elections here always have pathetic in-person turnout.

Hell, I didn't even know there was gonna be in-person voting until a week ago. And I live in California!

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Biden at 56-41 approval in CA isn’t great in the long run

1. It's the only exit poll we've got.

2. Exit polls are prone to change throughout the night. Especially 3 hours before polls closed.

3. It's an off-year election.

4. For reference, CNN's 2010 Exit Poll had Obama's approval at 53-45 in California. For 2014, it was 57-41 in California.

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This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

I take it you're not from California and haven't followed California politics in a while?