CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Riverside County just finished their count

Turnout - 55.7%  (2018 - 62.8%)

Yes - 362,958    50.5%   (50.2% Cox in 2018)
No - 355,630    49.5%   (49.8 Newsom in 2018)


On a related note, my growing frustration with the Registrar of Voters continues as I was all ready to break down the local results, but the County for whatever reason didn't upload their SOV with the final summary results.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

On a related note, my growing frustration with the Registrar of Voters continues as I was all ready to break down the local results, but the County for whatever reason didn't upload their SOV with the final summary results.

The County must've heard my cries cause they uploaded the SOV!

Interestingly, No won the overall city vote 51 - 49, but the unincorporated area supported recall around 57 - 43. Just enough for the county as a whole to flip to Yes.

Cities largely voted as they did in 2018 & 2020. Banning, Corona, Hemet, La Quinta & Lake Elsinore were all Biden/Cox cities that supported recall. The only Biden/Cox city to vote against the recall was Palm Desert.



                                  Yes% - No%    N-Y margin%  
Palm Springs               20.1  -  79.9               +59.7
Coachella                    20.5   -  79.5               +59.0
Cathedral City             28.0   -  72.0               +44.0
Perris                          31.6   -  68.4               +36.9
Moreno Valley             35.6   -  64.4               +28.7
Desert Hot Springs      38.0  -  62.0               +24.1
Rancho Mirage            39.7   -  60.3               +20.7
Indio                           41.9   -  58.1               +16.2
Riverside                     45.6   -  54.4                 +8.8
Palm Desert                46.5   -  53.5                 +7.0
Jurupa Valley              47.4   -  52.6                 +5.1
San Jacinto                 48.8   -  51.2                 +2.3
Eastvale                      49.9   -  50.1                 +0.2
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    50.5  -  49.5                  -1.0
La Quinta                    51.4   -  48.6                  -2.9
Banning                      51.8   -  48.2                  -3.7
Hemet                         52.4   -  47.6                  -4.9
Corona                        52.6   -  47.4                  -5.2
Beaumont                   54.3   -  45.7                  -8.7
Lake Elsinore              54.7   -  45.3                  -9.4
Unincorporated Area  57.1   -  42.9                -14.2
Temecula                    59.1   -  40.9                -18.2
Menifee                       59.4   -  40.6                -18.8
Blythe                         59.8   -  40.2                -19.6
Indian Wells               59.9   -  40.1                -19.8
Murrieta                      62.1   -  37.9                -24.1
Wildomar                    65.6   -  34.4                -31.2
Calimesa                     67.2   -  32.8                -34.4
Norco                          74.0   -  26.0                -47.9
Canyon Lake               79.5   -  20.5                -58.9

CD-36                          45.1   - 54.9                 +9.9
CD-41                          42.5   - 57.5               +15.0
CD-42                          59.0   - 41.0                -18.0



2021 N-Y - 2018 D-R SWING
Indian Wells                D+16.1
Rancho Mirage             D+14.1
Palm Desert                   D+8.7
Palm Springs                 D+7.4
La Quinta                       D+7.1
Hemet                            D+6.5
Menifee                          D+4.7
Banning                         D+4.6
Cathedral City                D+4.2
Beaumont                      D+2.2
Temecula                       D+1.6
Calimesa                        D+1.5
Murrieta                         D+1.5
Unincorporated Area     D+1.0
Indio                              D+0.4
RIVERSIDE COUNTY      R+0.7
Moreno Valley                R+1.4
Corona                           R+1.6
Lake Elsinore                 R+1.8
Wildomar                       R+2.0
Desert Hot Springs        R+2.9
Riverside                       R+3.5
San Jacinto                   R+4.1
Norco                            R+5.2
Canyon Lake                 R+5.8
Eastvale                        R+7.1
Perris                            R+8.3
Jurupa Valley                R+8.3
Coachella                      R+9.5
Blythe                         R+13.7


CD-36                          D+3.5
CD-41                          R+3.8
CD-42                          R+0.4


2021 - 2018 TURNOUT (+ Percentage of 18+ year old Hispanics & 18+ year old Non-Hispanic Whites)
                                2021% - 2018%     DIFFERENCE%      HISPANIC%   WHITE%

Indian Wells                77.9  -      83.4                       -5.4                     5.4           89.1
Rancho Mirage             76.8  -     80.7                        -3.9                   11.2           79.5
Canyon Lake                72.4  -     72.0                       +0.5                   12.9           77.7
Palm Springs               71.1  -     76.3                        -5.3                   20.9           66.9
Calimesa                      67.9  -     71.0                        -3.1                   25.3           65.1
Palm Desert                 67.2  -     74.4                        -7.2                   22.0           68.2
Norco                           66.4  -     70.5                        -4.1                   33.4           51.7
La Quinta                     66.1  -     72.4                        -6.3                   29.4           61.5
Temecula                     62.9  -     68.4                        -5.5                   25.1           52.2
Murrieta                       61.9  -     66.6                        -4.8                   27.6           49.6
Menifee                        60.6  -     66.7                        -6.1                   34.0           47.6
Beaumont                    60.3  -     66.6                        -6.3                   40.4           42.7
Banning                       59.3  -     66.5                        -7.2                   40.4           42.7
Wildomar                     58.1   -    63.4                        -5.3                   37.3           47.0
Corona                         57.0   -    64.0                        -7.0                   43.3           34.3
Eastvale                       56.7   -    62.5                        -5.8                   35.4           20.5
Cathedral City              56.1   -    62.1                        -6.1                   54.4          33.9
RIVERSIDE COUNTY    55.7  -     62.5                       -6.8                    45.6          44.1
Unincorporated Area   55.2   -    64.5                        -9.3
Indio                            53.6   -    61.4                        -7.8                   64.3          28.6
Riverside                     53.3   -    60.6                         -7.3                   50.6          30.9
Lake Elsinore               52.4   -    59.6                        -7.2                    47.4          33.2
Hemet                          51.9   -    59.7                        -7.8                    40.4          42.4
Jurupa Valley               46.7   -    56.8                      -10.0                    66.9          21.1
Blythe                          46.1   -    58.9                      -12.8                    38.6           39.4
San Jacinto                  44.5   -    53.1                        -8.6                    57.4           26.1
Moreno Valley              43.6   -    51.4                       -7.9                     58.2           15.4
Desert Hot Springs      42.6  -     51.1                       -8.5                      56.0           30.0
Perris                          37.0   -    46.0                        -9.0                      73.7             9.2
Coachella                    34.1   -    43.8                        -9.7                      96.2             2.1

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This is very interesting. Looks like the cities with a larger white population swung to Newsom and those with a larger Hispanic and Black population swung against him. And perhaps lower turnout among non-whites might explain some of that, which means this result is even worse for Republicans than it looks at first glance. They should perhaps quit with the covid truther nonsense and actually try and face reality.

Yeah, I don't think it's a coincidence that the most Hispanic cities also saw some of the worst turnout drops + swings against Newsom. I mean, we knew going into EDay that Hispanic & youth turnout was as abysmal as they usually are in odd-year elections.

Once the SoCal counties finish counting or the Supplemental gets released, I'd love to make a bubble graph comparing city margins to ethnicity/turnout. I'm clamoring to do one for the IE but San Bernardino is counting their last 10k votes at a glacial pace.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

San Bernardino County finished counting their ballots Thursday afternoon.


Turnout: 50.96% (-7.2% from 2018)

No      288,877   50.22%   (-1.32 from Newsom 2018)
Yes     286,364   49.78%

Margin   No +2,513   +0.44%   (-2.64 from Newsom's 2018 margin)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

John Cox is not running.

I wonder who the GOP unites behind now?

Faulconer if they want any chance.

The only way Faulconer has a chance is if he runs as an NPP candidate. And even then, the best he could hope for would be a 3-4 point win.

Poizner & (possibly) Schubert have shown that the only real avenue for a Republican to have a chance at statewide office is to not run as a Republican.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

In regards to the AG race, I feel this is gonna be a repeated talking point between now and November:


LA Times: A D.A. issued dire warnings about the Sacramento gun battle suspect. He was released early from prison anyway

The man arrested for possessing a machine gun at the scene of Sunday’s deadly shooting in Sacramento was allowed to leave prison in February despite opposition from the county’s district attorney to his early release.[...]

Almost exactly a year ago, Dist. Atty. Anne Marie Schubert’s office opposed Smiley Martin’s release from state prison to the Board of Parole Hearings in a two-page letter, first reported by the Sacramento Bee. The district attorney’s office asked that he not be freed because he is a career criminal and a danger to the community. Schubert released the letter after a records request but would not comment further.

“Inmate Martin has, for his entire adult life, displayed a pattern of criminal behavior,” wrote Deputy Dist. Atty Danielle Abildgaard. “While the current case on review may not be ‘violent’ under the Penal Code, Inmate Martin’s criminal conduct is violent and lengthy.[...]

California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation officials said the Board of Parole Hearings denied Martin parole under nonviolent parole review in May 2021, but he was later released in February 2022.

He had entered the state prison system in January 2018 with a 10-year sentence. But CDCR officials said prior to reaching a CDCR facility, Martin had already received 508 days of pre-sentencing credits, and received a variety of additional post-sentencing credits and hence was let go early this year, having served his sentence.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-05/sacramento-shooting-suspect-got-out-of-prison-early-despite-da-opposition

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

/snip

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-05/sacramento-shooting-suspect-got-out-of-prison-early-despite-da-opposition

I don’t know that it could really be used against anyone, but it definitely could help Schubert.

That's what I was implying

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

You can almost track the trajectory of the CAGOP just by their gubernatorial candidates:

2006: Incumbent Governor from Los Angeles
2010: Businesswoman from Silicon Valley
2014: Investment banker from Orange County
2018: Businessman from Orange County
2022: State Sen. from Lassen County

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is there a separate thread for the LA Mayor's election?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=464187.75