Texas (UT-Tyler) - Biden +5

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I think there's a real possibility that the case surges are what may be handing Florida, Georgia, Texas, Arizona to Biden.

We may very well see all of the shifting southern states flip at once. Certainly didn't expect that.

I absolutely think this take hasn't gotten much thought around here when it should.

I've been thinking this since Abbott & Ducey have tried to take credit for implementing mask orders while overturning cities for issuing them months ago. At that point, the vote becomes personal

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

		UT-Tyler Poll		2018 Texas Exit Poll		2016 Texas Exit Poll
Democrat		38%		34%		29%
Independent		22%		27%		33%
Republican		39%		39%		38%
Liberal		31%		22%		20%
Moderate		28%		35%		36%
Conservative		38%		43%		44%

Maybe this poll is bit skewed towards liberals and Dems, but nonetheless these are bad looking numbers for Trump

I got bored and adjusted the crosstab numbers/percentages to fit the exit polls. And unless I messed up somewhere in my math, still not looking good for Trump.

                 2018       2016
Biden          45%        43%
Trump         41%        41%
Undecided    9%         10%
Other           5%          5%


Seems like the Texas result is gonna be heavily dependent on how Independents shift from now until November. But if Trump wins, I don't expect him to do any better than Cruz in 2018