CA State House/Senate 2020 Megathread

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Democrats may already have a supermajority in both chambers, but that doesn't mean there's no more room to grow! In contrast, Republicans have a steep hill to climb to make any sort of comeback. But with nowhere else to go but up, there's still some Assembly seats they can potentially pick off.

Some of the races to watch tonight and into November:

The 2018 Democratic flips
* Assembly 16 (East Bay): Rebecca Bauer-Kahan)
* Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita): Incumbent Christy Smith dropped out to run for CD-25
* Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands): James Ramos
* Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa): Cottie Petrie-Norris
* Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside): Tasha Boerner Horvath


Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)
* Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo): Jordan Cunningham
* Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster): Tom Lackey
* Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda): Phillip Chen
* Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin): Steven Choi
* Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley): Tyler Diep

* Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert): Scott Wilk
* Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton): Ling Ling Chang (Josh Newman's seat before he got recalled in 2018)
* Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa): John Moorlach


Other races to watch

* Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy): Incumbent Susan Eggman dropped out to run for Senate-5. Just 3 Democrats running, 2 Moderates vs 1 Progressive

* Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree): Incumbent Chad Mayes running for the first time as NPP after switching from GOP last year.

* Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry): Ian Calderon dropped out to spend time with his family, setting the stage for a familial turf-war between Lisa Calderon (Ian's stepmom) and Sylvia Rubio (Sister of Susan & Blanca Rubio, State Senator & Assemblywoman respectively). 8 Democrats vs 1 Republican.

* Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway): Incumbent Brian Maienschein running for the first time as Dem after switching from GOP last year.

* Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet): Incumbent Mike Morrell is term-limited.

* Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs): Special election to fill vacancy by Jeff Stone, who resigned to work for the US Department of Labor.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is Diedre Nguyen (D-AD-72) going to make the runoff, or will it be R vs. R?

I'd be lying if I said this thread wasn't meant to consolidate your questions

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How things currently stand in the featured races. Keep in mind that if it currently states 100%, that means there's probably another 15-20% of VBM/provisional/late ballots to count.



The 2018 Democratic flips

Assembly 16 (East Bay)  75% reporting
Rebecca Bauer-Kahan*  63.1%
Joseph Rubay                 36.9%

Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita)  83% reporting
Suzette Martinez Valladares   34.1%
Lucie Lapointe Volotzky         20.2%
Kelvin Driscoll                           12.2%
Annie Cho                                11.4%
Brandii Grace                            9.6%
Dina Cervantes                         7.4%
Susan Christopher                     5.2%

Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands)  42% reporting
James Ramos*   54.4%
Jennifer Tullius   45.6%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)  100% reporting
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   49.2%
Diane Dixon                 26.9%
Kelly Ernby                    23.9%


Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside)  34% reporting
Tasha Boerner Horvath*   53.1%
Melanie Burkholder           46.9%



Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)

Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo)  100% reporting
Jordan Cunningham*  61.2%
Dawn Addis                 38.8%

Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster)  83% reporting
Tom Lackey*       59.7%
Steve Fox            15.4%
Jonathon Ervin        7.2%
Lourdes Everett       3.1%
Diedra Greenaway   5.2%
Michael Rives          3.8%
Ollie Mccaulley        3.3%
Eric Andrew Ohlsen  2.3%

Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)  93% reporting
Phillip Chen*           59.9%
Andrew Rodriguez  40.1%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)  100% reporting
Steve Choi*  45.6%
Melissa Fox   31.9%
Eugene Fields  12.7%
Benjamin Yu      9.8%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)  100% reporting
Janet Nguyen  35.1%
Tyler Diep*      26.5%
Diedre Nguyen    23.7%
Bijan Mohseni     14.8%

Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert)  69% reporting
Scott Wilk*    58.4%
Kipp Mueller  16.7%
Dana LaMon     10.8%
Warren Heaton   8.6%
Steve Hill           5.6%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)  96% reporting
Ling Ling Chang*  49.9%
Josh Newman        32.6%
Joseph Cho              17.5%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)  100% reporting
John Moorlach*   50.0%
Dave Min              25.5%
Katrina Foley          24.5%



Other races to watch

Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy)  54% reporting
Kathy Miller             35.8%   (Progressive)
Carlos Villaspudua  33.0%   (Moderate)
Christina Fugazi         31.2%   (Moderate)

Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree)  38% reporting
Chad Mayes*                 36.7%
Andrew Kotyuk             33.8%
DeniAntionette Mazingo    29.6%

Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry)  100% reporting
Jessica Martinez  31.4%
Lisa Calderon       19.0%
Sylvia Rubio           17.2%
Josue Alvarado       13.3%
Vanessa Tyson         7.7%
Gary Mendez           3.5%
Primo Castro           3.5%
Dora Sandoval         2.9%
Oscar Valladares      1.5%


Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway)  64% reporting
Brian Maienschein*  54.8%
June Yang Cutter      45.2%

Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet)  35% reporting
Lloyd White                   26.0%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh    24.3%
Abigail Medina                 23.9%
Kris Goodfellow                17.3%
Cristina Puraci                   8.4%

Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs)  32% reporting
Melissa Melendez    41.5%
Joy Silver                20.9%
Elizabeth Romero       20.6%
John Schwab             14.1%
Anna Nevenic              2.9%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Some updates now that everything is at "100%". The deadline to count the remaining VBM's and provisional ballots is April 3.

The 2018 Democratic flips

Assembly 16 (East Bay)
Rebecca Bauer-Kahan*  63.1%
Joseph Rubay                 36.9%

Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita)
Suzette Martinez Valladares   33.0%
Lucie Lapointe Volotzky          19.3%
Kelvin Driscoll                            11.4%
Annie Cho                                  11.4%
Brandii Grace                             10.9%
Dina Cervantes                            8.1%
Susan Christopher                       6.0%

Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands)
James Ramos*   56.9%
Jennifer Tullius   43.1%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   49.2%
Diane Dixon                 26.9%
Kelly Ernby                    23.9%


Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside)
Tasha Boerner Horvath*   53.7%
Melanie Burkholder           46.3%



Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)

Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo)
Jordan Cunningham*  61.2%
Dawn Addis                 38.8%

Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster)
Tom Lackey*       56.6%
Steve Fox            15.9%
Jonathon Ervin        7.2%
Diedra Greenaway   5.6%
Michael Rives          4.6%
Ollie Mccaulley        4.0%
Lourdes Everett       3.6%
Eric Andrew Ohlsen  2.5%

Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)
Phillip Chen*           58.2%
Andrew Rodriguez  41.8%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)
Steve Choi*  45.6%
Melissa Fox   31.9%
Eugene Fields  12.7%
Benjamin Yu      9.8%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)
Janet Nguyen  35.1%
Tyler Diep*      26.5%
Diedre Nguyen    23.7%
Bijan Mohseni     14.8%

Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert)
Scott Wilk*    55.5%
Kipp Mueller  17.2%
Dana LaMon     11.4%
Warren Heaton   10.0%
Steve Hill           5.9%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)
Ling Ling Chang*  49.3%
Josh Newman        32.7%
Joseph Cho              18.0%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
John Moorlach*   50.0%
Dave Min              25.5%
Katrina Foley          24.5%



Other races to watch

Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy)
Carlos Villaspudua  35.1%   (Moderate)
Kathy Miller             33.3%   (Progressive)
Christina Fugazi         31.6%   (Moderate)

Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree)
Chad Mayes*                 35.8%
Andrew Kotyuk             34.7%
DeniAntionette Mazingo    29.5%

Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry)
Jessica Martinez  29.5%
Lisa Calderon       19.7%
Sylvia Rubio           17.8%
Josue Alvarado       13.6%
Vanessa Tyson         7.5%
Primo Castro           3.9%
Gary Mendez           3.5%
Dora Sandoval         2.8%
Oscar Valladares      1.6%


Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway)
Brian Maienschein*  54.9%
June Yang Cutter      45.1%

Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet)
Abigail Medina                 26.3%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh       25.1%
Lloyd White                        23.2%
Kris Goodfellow                  17.0%
Cristina Puraci                      8.4%

Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs)
Melissa Melendez    41.5%
Elizabeth Romero    21.7%
Joy Silver                   20.6%
John Schwab              13.4%
Anna Nevenic               2.9%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-assembly/district/8
This one could be competitive too

Perhaps. It could also be fools gold ala AD-60
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-assembly/district/60

Cervantes was 6% behind in her 2018 primary and then won in November by her 2016 margins.

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AD38 is seriously irritating

I guess it's karma for AD-76 in 2018

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

AD38 is seriously irritating

I guess it's karma for AD-76 in 2018

In 2018 all the Repubs together were at 48% in AD76 (Clinton+13), so it's not exactly a bug, just bad luck to lose a round early.

It feels it's always the Dems who get truly shafted in Top2 lockouts.

And so far, all the Democrats together are at 47.7% in AD-38. We'll see how the final composition looks, of course.

I'm just as upset about Steve Fox in AD-36 moving onto November. 4th time's a charm

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I'm curious whether the missing California Assembly ballots are still actively counted, especially the three Dem lockouts.
On the Wiki links (33rd, 38th 72nd), numbers have petered out since last Saturday, despite the 72 runoff being within 300 votes.

Do election workers take weeks off to perform more more urgent tasks?

There's usually active counting going on, but updates vary by county. For example, in Riverside County, the only post-Tuesday updates have been last Friday and today at 6.

There's also very little updates over the weekend. Again, varies by county.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

I look at it exactly at 5:00. Tyler Diep is gone.

So that means Diedre Nguyen beats out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Well, I was gonna post the AD-72 update, but I had an inkling ERM64man would beat me to the punch.

And it looks like within 4 minutes of the update, I was right!

I look at it exactly at 5:00. Tyler Diep is gone.

So that means Diedre Nguyen beats out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

Yes. Janet Nguyen has a large lead for first. If this trend of early voting continues, Diep will fall out of second place.

But will Diedre Nguyen beat out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

1-week update. ~1.7 million ballots to go!

The 2018 Democratic flips

Assembly 16 (East Bay)
Rebecca Bauer-Kahan*  67.7%
Joseph Rubay                 32.3%

Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita)
Suzette Martinez Valladares   32.2%
Lucie Lapointe Volotzky          18.2%
Annie Cho                                  12.0%
Kelvin Driscoll                            11.9%
Brandii Grace                             11.4%
Dina Cervantes                            8.3%
Susan Christopher                       5.9%

Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands)
James Ramos*   58.8%
Jennifer Tullius   41.2%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   51.2%
Diane Dixon                 25.8%
Kelly Ernby                    22.9%


Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside)
Tasha Boerner Horvath*   56.7%
Melanie Burkholder           43.3%



Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)

Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo)
Jordan Cunningham*  58.0%
Dawn Addis                 42.0%

Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster)
Tom Lackey*       54.6%
Steve Fox            16.7%
Jonathon Ervin        7.4%
Diedra Greenaway   5.8%
Michael Rives          4.9%
Ollie Mccaulley        4.3%
Lourdes Everett       3.7%
Eric Andrew Ohlsen  2.7%

Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)
Phillip Chen*           57.3%
Andrew Rodriguez  42.7%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)
Steve Choi*  44.5%
Melissa Fox   33.0%
Eugene Fields  12.9%
Benjamin Yu      9.6%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)
Janet Nguyen  34.38%
Tyler Diep*      25.20%
Diedre Nguyen    25.18%
Bijan Mohseni     15.24%

Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert)
Scott Wilk*    54.3%
Kipp Mueller  18.1%
Dana LaMon     11.7%
Warren Heaton   10.1%
Steve Hill           5.9%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)
Ling Ling Chang*  48.5%
Josh Newman        33.1%
Joseph Cho              18.4%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
John Moorlach*   48.3%
Dave Min              27.3%
Katrina Foley          24.5%



Other races to watch

Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy)
Carlos Villaspudua  35.3%   (Moderate)
Kathy Miller             33.3%   (Progressive)
Christina Fugazi         31.4%   (Moderate)

Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree)
Chad Mayes*                 35.4%
Andrew Kotyuk             33.7%
DeniAntionette Mazingo    30.9%

Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry)
Jessica Martinez  29.2%
Lisa Calderon       20.2%
Sylvia Rubio           17.5%
Josue Alvarado       13.5%
Vanessa Tyson         7.9%
Primo Castro           3.8%
Gary Mendez           3.4%
Dora Sandoval         2.9%
Oscar Valladares      1.6%


Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway)
Brian Maienschein*  57.1%
June Yang Cutter      42.9%

Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet)
Abigail Medina                 27.5%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh       25.2%
Lloyd White                        21.9%
Kris Goodfellow                  17.4%
Cristina Puraci                      8.0%

Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs)
Melissa Melendez    40.6%
Elizabeth Romero    23.5%
Joy Silver                   20.9%
John Schwab              12.1%
Anna Nevenic               2.9%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Some other races that've been highlighted in this thread


Assembly 8 (Eastern Sacramento)
Ken Cooley*   54.9%
Cathy Cook     45.1%

Assembly 33 (High Desert)
Thurston Smith   38.3%
Rick Herrick        17.3%
Socorro Cisneros   13.9%
Blanca Gomez       10.1%
Anthony Rhoades    8.7%
Roger La Plante      6.5%
Alex Walton            5.2%

Assembly 73 (South OC)
Laurie Davies       27.5%
Scott Rhinehart    23.2%
Chris Duncan          18.3%
Bill Brough*            17.0%
Ed Sachs                 14.1%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Tyler Diep is now in third.

Thanks for that remotely vague/cryptic update.



Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)
Phillip Chen*           57.6%
Andrew Rodriguez  42.4%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)
Steve Choi*   44.3%
Melissa Fox   33.3%
Eugene Fields  13.0%
Benjamin Yu      9.5%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)
Janet Nguyen     34.1%
Diedre Nguyen   25.3%
Tyler Diep*           25.1%
Bijan Mohseni       15.5%

Assembly 73 (South OC)
Laurie Davies       27.5%
Scott Rhinehart    23.4%
Chris Duncan          18.3%
Bill Brough*            16.8%
Ed Sachs                 14.0%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   51.7%
Diane Dixon                 25.6%
Kelly Ernby                    22.7%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)
Ling Ling Chang*  48.2%
Josh Newman        33.4%
Joseph Cho              18.4%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
John Moorlach*   47.9%
Dave Min              27.6%
Katrina Foley          24.5%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

At this point there is a non-negligible chance Dems pick up 4 seats in the Senate (21, 23, 29, 37).

Although most likely the gain will be limited to 29 and 37.

The floor really has dropped out from under Moorlach since his 2016 race.

Amazing that the OC GOP could go from controlling 14 legislative/congressional seats to 2-3 Assembly seats & a Senate seat in the span of 6 years

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Diedre Nguyen is still second in the primary.

And Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.