CA State House/Senate 2020 Megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Democrats may already have a supermajority in both chambers, but that doesn't mean there's no more room to grow! In contrast, Republicans have a steep hill to climb to make any sort of comeback. But with nowhere else to go but up, there's still some Assembly seats they can potentially pick off.

Some of the races to watch tonight and into November:

The 2018 Democratic flips
* Assembly 16 (East Bay): Rebecca Bauer-Kahan)
* Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita): Incumbent Christy Smith dropped out to run for CD-25
* Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands): James Ramos
* Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa): Cottie Petrie-Norris
* Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside): Tasha Boerner Horvath


Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)
* Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo): Jordan Cunningham
* Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster): Tom Lackey
* Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda): Phillip Chen
* Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin): Steven Choi
* Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley): Tyler Diep

* Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert): Scott Wilk
* Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton): Ling Ling Chang (Josh Newman's seat before he got recalled in 2018)
* Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa): John Moorlach


Other races to watch

* Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy): Incumbent Susan Eggman dropped out to run for Senate-5. Just 3 Democrats running, 2 Moderates vs 1 Progressive

* Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree): Incumbent Chad Mayes running for the first time as NPP after switching from GOP last year.

* Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry): Ian Calderon dropped out to spend time with his family, setting the stage for a familial turf-war between Lisa Calderon (Ian's stepmom) and Sylvia Rubio (Sister of Susan & Blanca Rubio, State Senator & Assemblywoman respectively). 8 Democrats vs 1 Republican.

* Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway): Incumbent Brian Maienschein running for the first time as Dem after switching from GOP last year.

* Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet): Incumbent Mike Morrell is term-limited.

* Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs): Special election to fill vacancy by Jeff Stone, who resigned to work for the US Department of Labor.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Diedre Nguyen (D-AD-72) going to make the runoff, or will it be R vs. R?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Is Diedre Nguyen (D-AD-72) going to make the runoff, or will it be R vs. R?

I'd be lying if I said this thread wasn't meant to consolidate your questions

[I’m not Stu]

I’m looking forward to the AD-72 primary. It could either be R vs. D or R vs. R.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How things currently stand in the featured races. Keep in mind that if it currently states 100%, that means there's probably another 15-20% of VBM/provisional/late ballots to count.



The 2018 Democratic flips

Assembly 16 (East Bay)  75% reporting
Rebecca Bauer-Kahan*  63.1%
Joseph Rubay                 36.9%

Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita)  83% reporting
Suzette Martinez Valladares   34.1%
Lucie Lapointe Volotzky         20.2%
Kelvin Driscoll                           12.2%
Annie Cho                                11.4%
Brandii Grace                            9.6%
Dina Cervantes                         7.4%
Susan Christopher                     5.2%

Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands)  42% reporting
James Ramos*   54.4%
Jennifer Tullius   45.6%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)  100% reporting
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   49.2%
Diane Dixon                 26.9%
Kelly Ernby                    23.9%


Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside)  34% reporting
Tasha Boerner Horvath*   53.1%
Melanie Burkholder           46.9%



Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)

Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo)  100% reporting
Jordan Cunningham*  61.2%
Dawn Addis                 38.8%

Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster)  83% reporting
Tom Lackey*       59.7%
Steve Fox            15.4%
Jonathon Ervin        7.2%
Lourdes Everett       3.1%
Diedra Greenaway   5.2%
Michael Rives          3.8%
Ollie Mccaulley        3.3%
Eric Andrew Ohlsen  2.3%

Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)  93% reporting
Phillip Chen*           59.9%
Andrew Rodriguez  40.1%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)  100% reporting
Steve Choi*  45.6%
Melissa Fox   31.9%
Eugene Fields  12.7%
Benjamin Yu      9.8%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)  100% reporting
Janet Nguyen  35.1%
Tyler Diep*      26.5%
Diedre Nguyen    23.7%
Bijan Mohseni     14.8%

Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert)  69% reporting
Scott Wilk*    58.4%
Kipp Mueller  16.7%
Dana LaMon     10.8%
Warren Heaton   8.6%
Steve Hill           5.6%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)  96% reporting
Ling Ling Chang*  49.9%
Josh Newman        32.6%
Joseph Cho              17.5%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)  100% reporting
John Moorlach*   50.0%
Dave Min              25.5%
Katrina Foley          24.5%



Other races to watch

Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy)  54% reporting
Kathy Miller             35.8%   (Progressive)
Carlos Villaspudua  33.0%   (Moderate)
Christina Fugazi         31.2%   (Moderate)

Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree)  38% reporting
Chad Mayes*                 36.7%
Andrew Kotyuk             33.8%
DeniAntionette Mazingo    29.6%

Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry)  100% reporting
Jessica Martinez  31.4%
Lisa Calderon       19.0%
Sylvia Rubio           17.2%
Josue Alvarado       13.3%
Vanessa Tyson         7.7%
Gary Mendez           3.5%
Primo Castro           3.5%
Dora Sandoval         2.9%
Oscar Valladares      1.5%


Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway)  64% reporting
Brian Maienschein*  54.8%
June Yang Cutter      45.2%

Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet)  35% reporting
Lloyd White                   26.0%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh    24.3%
Abigail Medina                 23.9%
Kris Goodfellow                17.3%
Cristina Puraci                   8.4%

Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs)  32% reporting
Melissa Melendez    41.5%
Joy Silver                20.9%
Elizabeth Romero       20.6%
John Schwab             14.1%
Anna Nevenic              2.9%

[I’m not Stu]

Does Diedre Nguyen (D-AD-72) still have an outside chance to finish second in the primary?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Some updates now that everything is at "100%". The deadline to count the remaining VBM's and provisional ballots is April 3.

The 2018 Democratic flips

Assembly 16 (East Bay)
Rebecca Bauer-Kahan*  63.1%
Joseph Rubay                 36.9%

Assembly 38 (Simi Valley, Santa Clarita)
Suzette Martinez Valladares   33.0%
Lucie Lapointe Volotzky          19.3%
Kelvin Driscoll                            11.4%
Annie Cho                                  11.4%
Brandii Grace                             10.9%
Dina Cervantes                            8.1%
Susan Christopher                       6.0%

Assembly 40 (San Bernardino, Redlands)
James Ramos*   56.9%
Jennifer Tullius   43.1%

Assembly 74 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
Cottie Petrie-Norris*   49.2%
Diane Dixon                 26.9%
Kelly Ernby                    23.9%


Assembly 76 (Carlsbad, Oceanside)
Tasha Boerner Horvath*   53.7%
Melanie Burkholder           46.3%



Clinton/Republican districts (Cox got no more than 52% of the vote in 2018)

Assembly 35 (San Luis Obispo)
Jordan Cunningham*  61.2%
Dawn Addis                 38.8%

Assembly 36 (Palmdale, Lancaster)
Tom Lackey*       56.6%
Steve Fox            15.9%
Jonathon Ervin        7.2%
Diedra Greenaway   5.6%
Michael Rives          4.6%
Ollie Mccaulley        4.0%
Lourdes Everett       3.6%
Eric Andrew Ohlsen  2.5%

Assembly 55 (Diamond Bar, Yorba Linda)
Phillip Chen*           58.2%
Andrew Rodriguez  41.8%

Assembly 68 (Irvine, Tustin)
Steve Choi*  45.6%
Melissa Fox   31.9%
Eugene Fields  12.7%
Benjamin Yu      9.8%

Assembly 72 (Garden Grove, Fountain Valley)
Janet Nguyen  35.1%
Tyler Diep*      26.5%
Diedre Nguyen    23.7%
Bijan Mohseni     14.8%

Senate 21 (Santa Clarita, High Desert)
Scott Wilk*    55.5%
Kipp Mueller  17.2%
Dana LaMon     11.4%
Warren Heaton   10.0%
Steve Hill           5.9%

Senate 29 (Yorba Linda, Fullerton)
Ling Ling Chang*  49.3%
Josh Newman        32.7%
Joseph Cho              18.0%

Senate 37 (Irvine, Costa Mesa)
John Moorlach*   50.0%
Dave Min              25.5%
Katrina Foley          24.5%



Other races to watch

Assembly 13 (Stockton, Tracy)
Carlos Villaspudua  35.1%   (Moderate)
Kathy Miller             33.3%   (Progressive)
Christina Fugazi         31.6%   (Moderate)

Assembly 42 (Palm Springs, Joshua Tree)
Chad Mayes*                 35.8%
Andrew Kotyuk             34.7%
DeniAntionette Mazingo    29.5%

Assembly 57 (Whittier, Industry)
Jessica Martinez  29.5%
Lisa Calderon       19.7%
Sylvia Rubio           17.8%
Josue Alvarado       13.6%
Vanessa Tyson         7.5%
Primo Castro           3.9%
Gary Mendez           3.5%
Dora Sandoval         2.8%
Oscar Valladares      1.6%


Assembly 77 (San Diego, Poway)
Brian Maienschein*  54.9%
June Yang Cutter      45.1%

Senate 23 (Rancho Cucamonga, Hemet)
Abigail Medina                 26.3%
Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh       25.1%
Lloyd White                        23.2%
Kris Goodfellow                  17.0%
Cristina Puraci                      8.4%

Senate 28 (Temecula, Palm Springs)
Melissa Melendez    41.5%
Elizabeth Romero    21.7%
Joy Silver                   20.6%
John Schwab              13.4%
Anna Nevenic               2.9%

[Idaho Conservative]

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-assembly/district/8
This one could be competitive too

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-assembly/district/8
This one could be competitive too

Perhaps. It could also be fools gold ala AD-60
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/state-assembly/district/60

Cervantes was 6% behind in her 2018 primary and then won in November by her 2016 margins.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

AD38 is seriously irritating

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

AD38 is seriously irritating

I guess it's karma for AD-76 in 2018

[Epaminondas]

Safe Dem Supermajority -> Tossup

[Epaminondas]

AD38 is seriously irritating

I guess it's karma for AD-76 in 2018

In 2018 all the Repubs together were at 48% in AD76 (Clinton+13), so it's not exactly a bug, just bad luck to lose a round early.

It feels it's always the Dems who get truly shafted in Top2 lockouts.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

AD38 is seriously irritating

I guess it's karma for AD-76 in 2018

In 2018 all the Repubs together were at 48% in AD76 (Clinton+13), so it's not exactly a bug, just bad luck to lose a round early.

It feels it's always the Dems who get truly shafted in Top2 lockouts.

And so far, all the Democrats together are at 47.7% in AD-38. We'll see how the final composition looks, of course.

I'm just as upset about Steve Fox in AD-36 moving onto November. 4th time's a charm

[Nyvin]

Safe Dem Supermajority -> Tossup

Isn't a supermajority 54 seats?   And the Democrats currently have 61?    How can the Republicans possibly flip 7 seats?  

Besides AD-38 most of the marginal seats in the state are already held by Republicans,  there's not much out there for them to flip.

Honestly the same pretty much goes for the state senate,  what competitive seats are out there for Republicans to make gains on?   I sure don't see much.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Diedre Nguyen beat out Tyler Diep for second place in the primary?

[Coastal Elitist]

Anyone know anything about AD-73. The incumbent Republican is in fourth place in the jungle primary.

Laurie Davies 27.6%
Scott Rhinehart 22.2%
Chris Duncan 18.4%
Bill Brough 17.6% (incumbent)
Ed Sachs 14.3%

[Yellowhammer]

Anyone know anything about AD-73. The incumbent Republican is in fourth place in the jungle primary.

Laurie Davies 27.6%
Scott Rhinehart 22.2%
Chris Duncan 18.4%
Bill Brough 17.6% (incumbent)
Ed Sachs 14.3%

I read somewhere that he was me too'd.

[Nyvin]

Anyone know anything about AD-73. The incumbent Republican is in fourth place in the jungle primary.

Laurie Davies 27.6%
Scott Rhinehart 22.2%
Chris Duncan 18.4%
Bill Brough 17.6% (incumbent)
Ed Sachs 14.3%

I read somewhere that he was me too'd.

In June 2019, two women accused Brough of making unwanted sexual advances to them in public settings. Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett charged that Brough cornered her in a loca restaurant in March 2011, when both were serving on the Dana Point City Council, and pressed his groin against her. After she broke free and left, she filed a complaint against him with the city. Also, a Laguna Beach real estate agent who worked on campaigns for Bartlett and Brough, said Brough harassed her about five years ago before he was sworn into the state Assembly in 2014. Brough has denied the allegations.

[Coastal Elitist]

Anyone know anything about AD-73. The incumbent Republican is in fourth place in the jungle primary.

Laurie Davies 27.6%
Scott Rhinehart 22.2%
Chris Duncan 18.4%
Bill Brough 17.6% (incumbent)
Ed Sachs 14.3%

I read somewhere that he was me too'd.

In June 2019, two women accused Brough of making unwanted sexual advances to them in public settings. Orange County Supervisor Lisa Bartlett charged that Brough cornered her in a loca restaurant in March 2011, when both were serving on the Dana Point City Council, and pressed his groin against her. After she broke free and left, she filed a complaint against him with the city. Also, a Laguna Beach real estate agent who worked on campaigns for Bartlett and Brough, said Brough harassed her about five years ago before he was sworn into the state Assembly in 2014. Brough has denied the allegations.

Ok wow yeah he's quite a slimeball, lost the party endorsement to so it makes sense how poorly he's doing

[Nyvin]

AD-73 is the southern Orange county district,  Clinton only lost it by 6% and there was a lot of third party voting here for President which won't be a problem in the General.   It's also trending D pretty fast.

I'd say that could be competitive especially since it's looking like it'll be an open race.

[Epaminondas]

I'm curious whether the missing California Assembly ballots are still actively counted, especially the three Dem lockouts.
On the Gov page (33rd, 38th 72nd), numbers have petered out since last Saturday, despite the 72 runoff being within 300 votes.

Do election workers take weeks off to perform more more urgent tasks?

[I’m not Stu]

I'm curious whether the missing California Assembly ballots are still actively counted, especially the three Dem lockouts.
On the Wiki links (33rd, 38th 72nd), numbers have petered out since last Saturday, despite the 72 runoff being within 300 votes.

Do election workers take weeks off to perform more more urgent tasks?

Updates are done at 5:00 pm PT, at least in Orange County.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm curious whether the missing California Assembly ballots are still actively counted, especially the three Dem lockouts.
On the Wiki links (33rd, 38th 72nd), numbers have petered out since last Saturday, despite the 72 runoff being within 300 votes.

Do election workers take weeks off to perform more more urgent tasks?

There's usually active counting going on, but updates vary by county. For example, in Riverside County, the only post-Tuesday updates have been last Friday and today at 6.

There's also very little updates over the weekend. Again, varies by county.

[I’m not Stu]

As of 5:00 pm March 10, Tyler Diep leads Diedre Nguyen by only 17 votes. Diedre Nguyen has this. Diep won't make it past the primary.