NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

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My most anticipated primary/caucus of the early 4. The most reflective electorate for the national Democratic party and the biggest window into the national landscape before Super Tuesday.

The state where, regardless of overall result, we'll finally get some sizeable entrance/exit poll numbers regarding the various demographics that'll determine the candidates' coalitions going forward.


Plus a number of variables that'll affect today and the next three weeks of primaries (Or 59% of pledged delegates):

- The difference between a shockingly strong Sanders win or a shockingly narrow Sanders loss  (And how much of his strong Hispanic support is Beyond Belief: Fact or Fiction)
- The difference between a 2nd place or 4th place finish for Biden
- The potential reemergence of Warren after The Passion of Bloomberg
- The true reach & test of Buttigieg's ground
- The full effect of Steyer's advertising blanket
- And whatever Klobuchar is up to these days
- How much early voting or potential snafu renders some of these variables moot (And if early voting increases turnout at all)

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I'm excited for the caucus results. I'm also excited to move on from Nevada. I get sick of hearing how important Nevada is because of the racist idea that people who have similar skin colors all vote alike. They don't. Race needs to stop being elevated above ideas, but the Postmodern Democrats struggle with that simple concept. Hopefully Klobuchar overperforms, but I'm not expecting it. We'll see.

My exact feelings about South Carolina

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Here's what CNN updates looked like for the 2016 Democratic caucus. Though the fractured nature of the race, early voting & the chances of Iowa-like chaos renders a lot of this moot. Still a fun look back at the last rodeo and perhaps provide some timed goalposts. I'd wager there being a great deal of messiness if the results are 90 minutes late from the time caucusing starts


Pacific time

 12:00     Caucus begins
 12:04     First entrance polls released (Race, Ideology, Union household)
 12:35     2nd set of entrance polls released (Head-to-head, first-time caucusgoers, qualities)
 12:57     First precinct numbers reporting
   1:17     13% precincts in_____9% of Clark County in, 40% of Washoe County in
   1:27     21% precincts in____13% of Clark County in, 45% of Washoe County in
   1:39     31% precincts in____21% of Clark County in, 54% of Washoe County in
   1:52     40% precincts in____36% of Clark County in, 74% of Washoe County in
   2:06     50% precincts in
   2:18     61% precincts in____53% of Clark County in, 85% of Washoe County in
   2:26     Hillary Clinton projected as winner (66% precincts in)
   2:38     70% precincts in
   3:31     80% precincts in
   7:33     90% precincts in

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Final ranking prediction

1. Sanders (Wins final round by 6-8%)
2  Buttigieg
3. Warren
---Below viability---
4. Biden
5. Klobuchar
6. Steyer

Basically an Iowa repeat in terms of ranking. The percentages may vary wildly

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Quick request, but does anyone remember the website that had New Hampshire results tricking in at a quicker rate than news sites?

https://decisiondeskhq.com/nevada-democratic-caucus-results/

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Biden's lead with Black voters bodes well for SC

And Bernie as well. SC is not gonna be a 10%+ romp for Biden

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I know they reported on early voting numbers earlier, but I get the feeling CNN is not up to speed on just how much of a percentage of the electorate got it over with earlier in the week

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Plus a number of variables that'll affect today and the next three weeks of primaries (Or 59% of pledged delegates):

- The difference between a shockingly strong Sanders win or a shockingly narrow Sanders loss  (And how much of his strong Hispanic support is Beyond Belief: Fact or Fiction)

NBC Entrance Poll

Hispanic (18 %)
Sanders 51
Biden 13
Buttigieg 11
Steyer 9
Warren 7
Klobuchar 6
Warren 11

https://youtu.be/MCT80HJWQ2A

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I'm getting the feeling that Bernie Sanders is going to win handedly, but at the same time the delegate lead won't be crazy. There's just not that many delegates to get in Nevada and there are still many candidates to split with.

I guess we shouldn't devote much time to Nevada's results, particularly less time than New Hampshire's despite their lower delegate total.

No one cares about Nevada

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I'm guessing TRUMP will end Bernie & SN2903 will be the leading candidates to be mod-muted for today's primary thread?

It seems we're on route to, at least, one thread-wide mute per state primary

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I guess I spoke too soon! Congrats to SN2903 for "winning" the primary mute contest.

Anyway, looking clearer that it'll be a Bernie romp, but I can't see Biden getting 2nd today. At the very least, he'll be in a very close race for no delegates

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https://twitter.com/makeroadactNV/status/1231326904214413312?s=20

FATALITY!

Damn Hispanic Bernie-bros. I bet they're conspiring to dox those 13 non-Bernie voters and are writing up their death threats as we speak

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I honestly don't see what makes Nevada so important. And I don't see how Sanders winning Nevada makes him the frontrunner or inevitable nominee. I'm calling out both Sanders supporters and the MSM right now.

What makes any pre-Super Tuesday state important?

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I honestly don't see what makes Nevada so important. And I don't see how Sanders winning Nevada makes him the frontrunner or inevitable nominee. I'm calling out both Sanders supporters and the MSM right now.

What makes any pre-Super Tuesday state important?

The four pre-ST states set the media narrative. They are not about the delegates. They are about testing all of the candidates in four geographically and demographically diverse states to see who performs best where. So far Sanders is the only candidate who has shown strong numbers across all three states.

I agree with everything you said. And I strongly think Nevada is an indicator of the national landscape as a whole.

I just found Grassr00ts' comment on the silly side

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I honestly don't see what makes Nevada so important. And I don't see how Sanders winning Nevada makes him the frontrunner or inevitable nominee. I'm calling out both Sanders supporters and the MSM right now.

And to add on to this, if Biden gets in 2nd, which he appears to be on track to do, then he can win SC. If he wins SC, he's back in contention.

So we're circling back to the months old take of "The primary doesn't matter until Biden wins South Carolina"?

That take is as old as Biden's 10%+ leads in the national polls

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https://twitter.com/ChrisBarrett/status/1231345694599811073

Sanders voted against comprehensive immigration reform, and his M4A and Green New Deal proposals are so expensive and far-fetched that they are far less likely to get passed than the plans of other candidates.  Meaning on all three of her issues, Sanders is the least likely candidate to actually enact positive change.

"How stupid are the Hispanics of Nevada?"

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Sanders voted against comprehensive immigration reform, and his M4A and Green New Deal proposals are so expensive and far-fetched that they are far less likely to get passed than the plans of other candidates.  Meaning on all three of her issues, Sanders is the least likely candidate to actually enact positive change.

It's a misinformation cult just like Trump. None of it is going to happen. Does she not know that Bernie lobbied for toxic nuclear waste to be dumped in a poor Hispanic community? And he's brought ZERO bills for civil rights to the floor of the Senate, voted against Ted Kennedy's immigration bill, and voted in favor of protecting Minute Men who wanted to murder migrants at the border. But I'm a neoliberal hack shill c-nt b-tch for pointing this out.

Again, to reiterate what I think you two are trying to say:

"How stupid are the Hispanics of Nevada?"

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Sanders voted against comprehensive immigration reform, and his M4A and Green New Deal proposals are so expensive and far-fetched that they are far less likely to get passed than the plans of other candidates.  Meaning on all three of her issues, Sanders is the least likely candidate to actually enact positive change.

It's a misinformation cult just like Trump. None of it is going to happen. Does she not know that Bernie lobbied for toxic nuclear waste to be dumped in a poor Hispanic community? And he's brought ZERO bills for civil rights to the floor of the Senate, voted against Ted Kennedy's immigration bill, and voted in favor of protecting Minute Men who wanted to murder migrants at the border. But I'm a neoliberal hack shill c-nt b-tch for pointing this out.

Again, to reiterate what I think you two are trying to say:

"How stupid are the Hispanics of Nevada?"

I guess as stupid as Bernie and his bros made Black voters in the South out to be in 2016 when we backed Hillary Clinton by insurmountable margins. *shrugs*

Nice! I applaud your pivoting and vague "Whataboutism" skills


To add to my original point, if Bernie wasn't running, who among the other candidates could they coalesce with if he wasn't in the race? Not very likely Hispanics enthusiastically coalesce around the "Deporter in Chief's" Number One. I doubt Buttigieg, Klobuchar or even Warren appeals to them much.

So much is talked about the young, white & loud/divisive Bernie Bros, but the Unidos Con Bernie voters are in much higher numbers (Except perhaps in Florida). And with Nevada entrance polls & results baring themselves out, it seems the polls were spot on with his Hispanic support

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I am so relieved that Bernie not Biden is gonna be nominee. Biden supporters are trying to switch the Russian thing on Bernie, Hunter Biden  was implicated in the Ukraine scandal,  not Bernie

Lmao.
Ever wonder why Trump has been pushing for Bernie to be the nominee implicitly?
Ever wonder why Putin is trying to get Sanders to win the nomination?
Even if unfair, Trump will taint Bernie in a way that will make 1988/2004 look like child’s play.

You're really taking these results hard. I hope you're feeling ok

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America deserves Trump.

Someone's mad

You know, if I had said the same thing back during Iowa to a Bernie supporter, mods would have deleted that post in minutes. Shows how much of a tilt this forum has.

I hope you feel better in the morning

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Has Warren spoke yet? I think it could be telling she's going last...

The event page says her Seattle rally starts in 40 minutes. She'll be speaking in around 60-90 minutes

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Bernie is just as much a narcissistic cult leader as Trump is and he's going to win the nomination the sane way Trump did: a militant base and a fractured field of opponents.

I guarantee, as we speak, those self-hating Hispanic voters in Nevada are planning how to dox the 60% of caucusgoers who didn't support him as we speak

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Has Warren spoken yet?

She'll be on in a couple minutes

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Has Warren spoken yet?

She has event in Seattle.

She is an hour late with no explanation for the delay.

More like a half-hour late. The event started at 6 PM PST. They probably have other speakers beforehand.

Bernie didn't speak in San Antonio until a half-hour after his event started

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From the NYT live blog:

Astead Herndon, in Charleston, S.C. 23m ago

Sanders’s win in Nevada should reshape the narrative about his supporters, and is a wake-up call to rivals who have ignored the warning signs

Astead Herndon, in Charleston, S.C. 22m ago

If the “Bernie Bros” are real, so are the working-class Latino moms who put Sanders over the top in Nevada.