Joe Biden 2020 campaign megathread v3 (pg 45 - mass-dropout aftermath)

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All I know is that I'm glad I don't incessantly follow political Twitter and don't find it to be the sole/dominant forum this primary will be fought in.

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Biden is triaging New Hampshire. Which is not something one would do if they think they’ll win Iowa.

NH is probably the least important early state for Biden, though. He can afford to lose it badly if he wins big in SC and takes either IA or NV.

It seems SC is the only important early state for Biden

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Prez Bernie and Veep Buttigieg,  nice ring to it

I presume you meant to post that in the other thread?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=358836.0

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I'd still say Biden is the favorite in SC regardless of what happens in NV, and a victory there would probably let him stay in on Super Tuesday.

Margins do matter here. Even if Biden wins in SC my gut feel is that he won't get that massive bump Hillary got out of SC in 2016. Bernie only got 26 % in SC in 2016. You can probably bet your house that he will do much better than that and better with AA in general this time around.

Hillary won SC 3 to 1. Biden would be happy just to get a quarter of the margin she got.

Funny enough, if Biden is the "Hillary/establishment" of this primary, South Carolina could become for him what New Hampshire was for Bernie this year.

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Biden is spending all of next week in South Carolina.  He'll be there from Feb. 24-29:

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1230671014922600448

which doesn't leave much time to campaign in Super Tuesday states.

I'm sure other candidates will spend a lot of time in SC next week, but presumably the rest will also be doing some Super Tuesday state campaigning.

Well, Bidens campaign depends entirely on SC. If he is weak or loses it, then he won't even have the AA leg to stand on, they will head over to one of the billionaires. If he does well though, he gains momentum purely with the AA community, which is all Biden wants right now. AA momentum will carry into Super Tuesday and help him in AL, TN, TX, and other AA controlled contests.

I guess the big question about SC I'm interested in is "At this point in the race, what is considered good enough for Biden?"

Before Iowa, anything above 12-15% would've meant smooth sailing going into Super Tuesday.

Now, I guess the bar should be lowered to where a 6-8% would make him "The Comeback Kid"? I'm just not sure what the sweet spot is anymore between an excellent performance and a pathetic performance

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I can't sleep, so I've been watching some of the morning pundits with their Sunday morning takes about Nevada. It's been fascinating watching their increasing nervousness about Biden's performance in SC and the "Bernie/Moderates Problem" in general.

My question is this:  Has the bar been so lowered over the last month that Biden getting any win in South Carolina, regardless of margin, makes him "The Comeback Kid"?

I've asked it before, but I'm getting the sense that something akin to a 26-24 Biden win is gonna be shouted about as "Biden on the up and up again!" as much as a 36-14 shellacking would be. Regardless if he'll take the delegate lead after SC, The spin is gonna be dizzying come Sunday morning.

Even on here, the downplaying has been fascinating from "Biden's gonna dominate South Carolina" to "He'll get a solid win" to "He might win by 5%" to "Just a win would be great for him".

After three relatively close primaries in 2008 (Iowa being debatable), Obama gained further legitimacy in SC with a 29% margin of victory. In 2016, Clinton reestablished dominance with a crushing 47% margin.

I feel, for Biden to remove all doubt of his troubling performance, he has to be above a single digit margin of victory. And if he wants to have the most delegates going into Super Tuesday, he's gonna have to get around a 20% margin + one of Steyer/Sanders below 15% (Sanders for best case scenario). Either that or hope the field is so fractured that he's the only candidate scraping past viability

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The campaign is airing a television ad that features Obama praising Biden in early 2017, when Obama awarded his right-hand man the Presidential Medal of Freedom. The ad will air in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia on shows and stations “that overperform with African American viewership,” according to the campaign — a constituency that Biden’s team believes remains a strength for their campaign and a decisive force in the Democratic nominating process.

He's really pinning his whole candidacy on the South.

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Ya'll know he's just trying to get a rise out of people?

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"Tomorrow is Super Thur -- er -- Super Tuesday.  Boy I'm getting ahead of myself there."

Clearly this man is losing his mind.

Who cares.  Its endearing.

You clearly don't know MacArthur if you think he's being serious lol

I’m on too much of a moderate-high to notice tonight.

You and 95% of those who've posted since Saturday night seem to be on the same stuff

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Hey guys throwing this out but might we be overreacting a bit? I mean Biden still has no staff or ground game in California or the northeast along with the fact almost all the races right after ST are gonna be Bernie friendly

I've heard conflicting takes regarding whether the post-ST states are more Biden-friendly or Sanders-friendly