2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

NRCC internal: Malinowski TRAILS generic R, 44-42.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nrcc-poll-malinowski-in-close-re-election-race-remains-largely-unknown/

But Atlas told me this district was Safe D because of muh sububran trends and muh "swung towards Menendez"!

Atlas says a lot of things.

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I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

As it should be. CA 45/49 look to be lost for a generation.

With CA-48, they could use the "Rohrabacher who?" cover.

 CA-39 would be a prime pickup if 'Generic R' ran rather than Young "Dems totally stole the vote" Kim


EDIT: Probably should've said "prime pickup opportunity"

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

As it should be. CA 45/49 look to be lost for a generation.

With CA-48, they could use the "Rohrabacher who?" cover.

 CA-39 would be a prime pickup if 'Generic R' ran rather than Young "Dems totally stole the vote" Kim

Given the demographic makeup of CA-39, I have to imagine that it won't be easier to get the seat back in a Presidential year.

Yeah, I'm not sure why people are acting like CA-39 is likely to flip back. It is a majority-minority seat after all, and I doubt the presidential year demographics will be favorable at all to the GOP.

I'm acting like CA-39 will be a closer race than the 45/49, not that it would flip back.

Of the CA seats, I believe CA-48 to be the only chance of a legitimate GOP pickup at this point.

Again, if Young Kim stands as the top GOP contender in CA-39, they're just begging for a worse performance.

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These internals are probably part of a plan to persuade Republican donors that retaking the House isn't that far-fetched a proposal.

Bingo.

Indeed.

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Isn’t Valadao in debt up to his eye balls? I’m surprised he didn’t just cash out as a lobbyist or something. Seems like a poor decision

Yeah he was one of the poorest members of congress and even his farm was being repo’d iirc.

House rules prohibited himself from being involved with the daily operations of the farm, so this probably isnt on him. It was managed by his brothers.

Ok well whoever’s fault it was, he’s not in good financial shape iirc. Also Valadao is not winning this back in 2020, and Salas is probably slapping himself silly for not running in 2018, he would have won by 5-6 points.

Especially since Salas had himself a "competitive" race in 2018 (Which he won by 13%)

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Former Irving Mayor and HUD Official Beth Van Duyne is IN for #TX24.

https://www.facebook.com/1627084453/posts/10217535516252909?sfns=mo

Good recruit in my opinion. Mayor or a large city in the district as recently at 2017, Washington connections thanks to HUD (will help with fundraising), and she appears generally inoffensive.

Carpetbagger

Texas is full of carpetbaggers. It's been encouraged for years now

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As I predicted, Atlas is already freaking out about the CA-21 rating.

If you don't agree MAKE YOUR OWN RATINGS!

2 dismissive posts = TOTAL ATLAS FREAK-OUT!!!!!!!

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Yeah, but IL-14 is a Toss-Up because muh PVI and Trump won it in 2016 (by 6 points less than Romney.)

I think we got the joke by now

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Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Almost like a post engineered to peeve me off