Eh, I mean, it's not like voters flat out don't care about a politician's record. Even if the voters forget about something from 2+ years prior, or perhaps never knew to begin with, they can be educated about it during the election. To say otherwise ignores politicians we know have lost primaries for being insufficiently liberal/conservative or making some other bad decisions. Lipinski almost lost his, and probably in large part because someone just called him out on his record for once in an actual campaign that had actual resources. McCain's 2016 margin was significantly smaller than past elections and it's clear his record had turned some people on him. Crowley lost because it turns out the people wanted something different and he got a proper challenger in a year where liberal energy was off the charts. And this puts aside the fact that yes, sometimes people do remember past slights and hold it against politicians for years. I still know people who won't let Liz Warren off the hook for not endorsing Bernie in 2016. I talked to them about this last week. And these are not super political people either. I still can't believe they care so much about some stupid endorsement that wouldn't have made a difference anyway 2 years later.
I get what you're saying, and I usually agree with you on a host of issues, but I think you don't give voters enough credit here. Kavanaugh's confirmation is a big issue to Democrats, and Maine may not be a Solid Democratic state, but it's not really a purple state either. If Democrats polarize against Collins, and conservatives still remain skeptical of her because she doesn't do literally everything they want, she could definitely be in trouble. Whether that will actually happen though, we'll just have to see. I'm not convinced it will, but I'm not convinced it won't either. I do think it's possible.
That's what happens with Generic Rs, but Collins had an independent brand that has now basically been wiped away, she's a Generic R at this point.
While I think people are exaggerating the impact this will have, the issue will almost certainly hurt Collins more than someone like Doug Jones (even though it helps her in the primary). She’s unlikely to lose, but her margin of victory next time will be greatly reduced.
It makes it so that she performs as a Generic R and will trend the way the state votes in the general, she's going to have problems in the primary regardless because of her Obamacare vote. If she wanted to be stronger at thwarting a primary challenge, she could've should've also voted for the repeal.
