Clown Ernst will be shown the door by the Very Intelligent Swing Voters of the Great State of Iowa Who Vote For The Person, Not The Party.
Meanwhile Bel Edwards will use his socially conservative, fiscally liberal populism (
) to show that Louisiana is really a Democratic stronghold at heart.
Tbh there is a good case to say Ernst may be more likely to lose. Mediocre approvals (apparently), swingy as all hell state with Democratic successes actually happening more than once in recent history, polarization of federal races, etc. Dumb-o-crats seem to be angling to lose a winnable race again because she has an Iowa Values Haircut so that means she's BIPARTISAN or whatever.
Bel Edwards only has the fact the Louisiana is a very Republican state now as a mark against his electoral prospects. He only has clown-tier opponents (so far) and good approvals. Gubernatorial elections being less polarized, along with the electorate being smaller in an off-year election also helps immensely for him.
Things could affect both much closer to the election either strengthening them or weakening them... but that is how I see things on paper.
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