Most electoral college maps still have Nevada colored in as a swing state. Is this still reasonable?
Sure, Nevada is still winnable for a moderate Hispanic Republican like Sandoval for Governor, especially in a midterm year when minority turnout is low. But is it really winnable for a national Republican (especially Trump) in a presidential year, when minority turnout will be high?
I'm inclined to say no. Why? Because nowhere is demographic change occurring more rapidly than in Nevada. Over the longer term:
And
from the census, here is the change over the shorter term:
White Non-Hispanic: 54.1% in 2010 --> 51.5% in 2014
Hispanic: 26.5% in 2010 --> 27.8% in 2014
Black: 8.1% in 2010 --> 9.1% in 2014
Asian: 7.2% in 2010 --> 8.3% in 2014
Just the black population increase alone is politically significant because blacks are such reliable Democratic voters. You might not think of Nevada as a center of black population growth. But there are the numbers. Up 1% in only a span of 4 years! How much will it have gone up over the course of a decade?
If you are not ready to call Nevada a blue state, when will you be ready to stop calling it a swing state? 2020? 2024? Does Dean Heller have to lose for you to consider NV a blue state?
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