Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[GoTfan]

Based Biden.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1510996562394103808

I'm all for. once Bush faces them over Iraq.

I hate Bush as much as anyone but piss off with the false equivalence 🤬

> Russia has done more in Ukraine in 6 weeks than Bush did in Iraq in 6 years and that was with Bush actually being able to take Iraq over.

> There was actually a good reason to invade Iraq but instead Bush lied about the causus belli. I originally favored it and still do in principle, but the corruption and incompetence quickly illustrated that it was a failed operation. Bush and members of his administration should be held responsible for the negligence and fraud that they committed and the unnecessary mercurial violence they encouraged in regards to Iraq.

> The only reason Russia invaded Ukraine was because they wanted  back the territory they lost during the dissolution of the USSR.

> Let's talk about the here and now instead of someone else kind of doing the same thing and getting away with it.
 

That argument would have had more credibility outside the west if it was actually talked about rather than swept under the rug with "whataboutery" being one of the things keeping it in the public conciousness.

In this thread, the issue has been raised and the differences pointed out repeatedly by multiple people. The ones bringing it up both in this thread and in other places are doing it to try and score cheap political points against the West in general and the U.S. in particular while dodging answering any of the questions posed by their tepid to nonexistent support of Ukraine. They’re not interested in an honest examination of the issue, but in using “what about Iraq/Afghanistan” as a deflection from their morally bankrupt stance.

A discussion on what was done in Iraq and Afghanistan is long overdue.

However, could we perhaps put a pin in it for now?

[GoTfan]

Plot twist. Western official: "My understanding is that tanks & jets will not be supplied, partly because...they have this offensive dimension...but also...would not be particularly relevant... what the Americans have told us is that they are not minded to give [MBTs] to Ukraine"

Yes, because Ukraine is going to storm Moscow with a few hundred Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

This is pathetic. If the Ukrainians need tanks, then give them the bloody tanks!

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

[GoTfan]

This is genocide, and anyone pretending otherwise is an ignorant hack to say at least. So much for "denazifaction."

Unfortunately, this kind of stuff seems to be quite common from Russian forces for a very long time. Let's not forget the red army committed terrible crimes in WWII already, and not just against German civilians, but also against Polish civilians and others. As much wrong was done to them by the Nazis, still doesn't justify rape and murder against civilians. Two wrongs don't make a right. In WWII, I'm just aware of few cases of such cruelty from American and British troops, and where they happened, the offenders were put on military trial.

Putler, his soldiers and generals need to be put on trial. It's for sure wishful thinking, but I'd like to see an international arrest warrant issued for him.

A somewhat different situation existed in WW2. Slavs as a whole were considered sub-human by the Nazis. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ukrainians are considered sub-human by the Russians, but we can't be sure.

And personally, if you're willing to invade a country and commit war crimes, dont be f(inks)ing surprised when the other side responds in kind. I mean, there was one instance where the Soviets found the bodies of children literally bled dry to provide transfusions for SS officers. How are yu going to respond to that if you see that done to your countrymen?

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

Even if this is true, the importance of the UN in facilitating discussion between people and countries who wouldn't otherwise be talking shouldn't be understated.

To add to this, the UN's purpose is to prevent another world war, and they've been successful  in that regard.

[GoTfan]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

Even if this is true, the importance of the UN in facilitating discussion between people and countries who wouldn't otherwise be talking shouldn't be understated.

To add to this, the UN's purpose is to prevent another world war, and they've been successful in that regard.

Nuclear weapons have been (so far) sucessful in that. Don't know what contribution the UN has had, if any.

It's called MAD because you have to be mad to believe in it. I don;t believe mutually assured destruction is as big a deterrent as everyone pretends it is because the entire concept rests on the idea that any leader would rational enough not to hit the big red button.

That's an awfully risky gamble to take.

And without the UN, we're back to the pre-WW1 way of sorting things out, and I don't think we have the modern statesmen capable of that.

[GoTfan]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response, and I fully support it. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

Umm... GoTfan please review the comment bolded, since I doubt honestly and sincerely believe that you don't support Ukrainian massacres of Russian POWs.

No, you're absolutely right, I don't. I'm just ticked off because what the RUssians are doing reminds me a lot of some stories from ancestors of mine in the Second World War who suffered at the hands of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.

I fully repudiate that part of the comment. I was speaking from a place of pure outrage.

[GoTfan]

More Americans think the United States is responsible (somehow) for Putin invading Ukraine than do Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Brazil.  And South Africa.  So pretty much matching India.  

It's the Tucker Carlson effect.

An abomination.

Tucker would find a way to justify Russia invading Western Europe at this point.

[GoTfan]

And thus, the Lazerpig Loop is proven

[GoTfan]

A couple of pages back, I posted about something called the Lazerpig Loop. Invented by YouTuber Lazerpig, the Loop is the best summary of this war you're gonna get. For those not in the know, the Lazerpig Loop is as follows:

Russia stronk memes->Russian tech is better than Western tech because (insert reason here)->War happens, Russian stuff turns out to suck->People forget about war->Repeat.

[GoTfan]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

You mean in their invasion or in their army?

The whole Russian army has around 130 Ka-52s.

Also each one has an estimate cost of about $15 million. Almost $200 million down the drain.

Again, Lazerpig Loop:

Russia stronk memes->Russian tech is better than Western tech because (insert reason here)->War happens, Russian stuff turns out to suck->People forget about war->Repeat.

[GoTfan]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

Based. The opposition is even more based.

Honestly surprising out of the CDP, who are really peacenik-y usually.

[GoTfan]

Yikes, this is how Russia will win. We need to send NATO troops now and demand Putin back down. Let him know going any further than Donbass will result in WW3.

And sending in NATO troops won't?

[GoTfan]

Herald Sun is officially reporting a UK minister saying a world war will start in days. Don't put much stock in it to be honest.

[GoTfan]

The ABC just reported that Russian forces are storming the steelworks.

[GoTfan]

I think the US and it's Allies saying that they are going to crush the Russian military threat and admit they are providing intelligence to sink ships etc.

If Russia feels threatened, they may freak out.

My concern is what Putin will do if he loses in Donbass. He can't admit defeat, so what's he gonna do if his conventional army loses?

[GoTfan]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176?s=20&t=2kHJbe6odA-...

Putin will blow everyone up before he does that. They have to know that.

[GoTfan]

Another trash editorial by the NYT. Not a surprise, but it was truly painful to read. The crux of their argument was that Ukraine should surrender because the West isn't prepared to deal with a defeated Russia. Truly horrendous.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1527577262052323328

One of Zelensky's advisors:

https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1527181698026418176?s=20&t=2kHJbe6odA-...

Putin will blow everyone up before he does that. They have to know that.

so should the world just pussy out and stop supporting Ukraine because it might hurt some demonic trillionaire prick's feelings?

As much as you might want to, you can't just butterfly away Russia's nuclear arsenal.

[GoTfan]

In a new series of counter-sanctions against the West, the Russian government has banned almost 1,000 Americans from entering the country. The list includes actor Morgan Freeman as well as the corpses of late senators John McCain and Orrin Hatch. Donald Trump was again exempted from the sanctions though.


https://mobile.twitter.com/axios/status/1528112776824111105

Losing so badly that you need to literally ban corpses from entering you country.

[GoTfan]

It seems like most western leaders fall into three camps
1. Ukraine must take back all of its recognized territory.
2. Russia must retreat to the pre-February 24th borders to start serious negotiations
3. Russia should retreat to the pre-February 24th borders, but it isn't necessary for negotiations.

It seems like the Baltic Leaders, Johnson, and Duda are in camp 1, Biden is in camp 2, while Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi are in camp 3 and I don't know about anyone else.

Might just be my stupid perspective, but camp 2 seems like the only feasible option. Russia will escalate before admitting defeat.

[GoTfan]

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/187917/Ukraine-to-decide-how-much-territory-it-gives-to-Russia-NATO

"Ukraine to decide how much territory it gives to Russia: NATO"

The US-led alliance aims to strengthen Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table, Jens Stoltenberg said but added that any peace deal would involve compromises, including territory.

So  NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg admits that Ukraine will most likely have to cede territory as part of a peace deal.

...and this is why Putin continues to see the West as weak.

The only peace deal should be for Russia to get the **** out of Ukraine.

The awful part is for how weak Biden is, Trump is even a bigger pussy. I could see this entire clusterfinks be what revitalizes the Bush-Cheney-Rove Republican Party. Will be really interesting to see where DeSantis falls on all of this whether he is a nationalist who doesn't care until aggressive neighbors are threatening us directly or going to work closer with John Bolton and their likes. At either rate, there is something as TOO aggressive.

Could you imagine if the pre-2016 Republican Party still exist?

The pre-2016 Republicans were not good guys. The wars in the Middle East were justified on false grounds and I suspect were mainly done at the behest of the oil companies and Halliburton. Not to mention Bush's horrific domestic policies which have irreversibly damaged the American economy.

[GoTfan]

As helpful as NATO has been, I'm not convinced they would go beyond Ukraine reclaiming its land up to the Feb 24th lines, and Ukraine needs their continued support to wage that kind of operation against Russia. America still won't provide long range missiles to Ukraine, for fear of triggering a major escalation from Russia (whatever that even means at this point). Hard to see how invading Crimea wouldn't be worse from that perspective.

Taking back the Crimean Peninsula would almost surely have to come later in the war (implying Ukraine has nearly pushed Russia out), given how much control Russia has over Southern Ukraine and how much of Ukraine's forces are tied up elsewhere, at which point it's easy to see Russia refusing to concede Crimea no matter what it takes, nuclear weapons included. Actually, as far as nukes go, the perekop isthmus is pretty ideal for halting an invading force, particularly given that Ukraine doesn't have the ability to conduct an amphibious invasion. I don't know if it would ever come to that, but I just can't see Russia giving up Crimea.

Talking about Ukraine taking back some territory is pure delusional at this point. Talking about Crimea while they are losing ground still. And they WILL continue to lose the ground in the East at least.

They are taking back small areas of territory around Kherson even as you typed this.

Another twitter offensive I suppose. In which they took for now maybe 3 unimportant villages. And even that's the question. In the same amount of time they lost two cities in SD and Lisichansk. Only villages around Lysychansk like Belogorovka are probably bigger advancement than all of that Kherson offensive. But if you wish to beleive in that, sure.

Why are you simping so much for a dictatorship?

[GoTfan]

I think fog of war is beginning to come into effect. The situation seems to me to be a bit unclear. Russia may be making gains, but as long as Ukraine can hit these supply depots with relative impunity, then I fail to see how this is unambiguously good news for Russia.

Of course, our resident dictator simp will disagree.

[GoTfan]

BRRRRRRRRT!!
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184

It would probably be the least useful donor jet for reasons gone into elsewhere, but the US Air Force has been looking for any excuse to get rid of them. The A-10 close support planes are an interesting example of MIC grift; they’ve been known to be a waste of money for decades by the Air Force, but the Army lobbies to have the Air Force keep them anyway because it means part of the Air Force’s budget goes exclusively (but inefficiently) to helping the Army. They are helped in this expensive act of trolling by Congresscritters who ignore evidence when lobbyists deploy the “Brrrt!” card.

Exactly. The A-10 is probably the most useless aircraft the US has, and is beyond obsolete in modern warfare.