What does the LA election tell us about the remaining 2023 races? (user search)
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  What does the LA election tell us about the remaining 2023 races? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What does the LA election tell us about the remaining 2023 races?  (Read 1626 times)
Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
Just Passion Through
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Norway


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« on: October 15, 2023, 05:31:33 PM »

Nothing changes. This was never the year Democrats were going to win in Mississippi, but the key difference between Louisiana and the other two states is that Democrats are investing in the latter.

If anything, I'm more bullish on Democrats winning one or both houses in Virginia than I was yesterday, just because this morning I saw an ad from Republicans about abortion. Republicans can't win on abortion here.
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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,515
Norway


P P P

« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2023, 10:00:24 AM »

Nothing changes. This was never the year Democrats were going to win in Mississippi, but the key difference between Louisiana and the other two states is that Democrats are investing in the latter.

If anything, I'm more bullish on Democrats winning one or both houses in Virginia than I was yesterday, just because this morning I saw an ad from Republicans about abortion. Republicans can't win on abortion here.
many people said this, but do you have any data that proves this?

I don't have monetary figures (other than the appalling 35.8% turnout - down 10 points from the 2019 primary, and a larger drop from the 51% in the general), but what I'm reading suggests that Democrats weren't very interested in contesting this race from the start. They didn't educate the voters about Shawn Wilson or build the infrastructure and outreach needed to do well in Louisiana statewide like they did four and eight years ago. In fact, it sounds like JBE was more interested in (unsuccessfully) defeating a progressive state rep. than getting Wilson past 26%(!). Also, of the 71 unopposed candidates for Legislature, 44 were Republicans. Only 27 were Democrats.

That's a huge contrast to Andy Beshear's, Brandon Presley's, or the Virginia Democrats' situation, where Democrats are at least attempting to have a better showing in these states.
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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,515
Norway


P P P

« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2023, 10:17:36 AM »

Nothing changes. This was never the year Democrats were going to win in Mississippi, but the key difference between Louisiana and the other two states is that Democrats are investing in the latter.

If anything, I'm more bullish on Democrats winning one or both houses in Virginia than I was yesterday, just because this morning I saw an ad from Republicans about abortion. Republicans can't win on abortion here.
many people said this, but do you have any data that proves this?

I don't have monetary figures (other than the appalling 35.8% turnout - down 10 points from the 2019 primary, and a larger drop from the 51% in the general), but what I'm reading suggests that Democrats weren't very interested in contesting this race from the start. They didn't educate the voters about Shawn Wilson or build the infrastructure and outreach needed to do well in Louisiana statewide like they did four and eight years ago. In fact, it sounds like JBE was more interested in (unsuccessfully) defeating a progressive state rep. than getting Wilson past 26%(!). Also, of the 71 unopposed candidates for Legislature, 44 were Republicans. Only 27 were Democrats.

That's a huge contrast to Andy Beshear's, Brandon Presley's, or the Virginia Democrats' situation, where Democrats are at least attempting to have a better showing in these states.

JBE only ever got through in Louisiana because he was seen as a quasi-independent, so that's unsurprising. 

Yeah, that and the fact that his opponent was David Vitter. "Prostitutes over patriots" was a brilliant attack line.
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