Arizona megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I still think Yee or Salmon wins. Trump's endorsement doesn't always clinch the victory  for someone, as we've seen before

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Gold help us if these people win. God help us

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Let's check in on the Lake campaign to see what attacks they're going with this cycle:

https://twitter.com/KariLakeWarRoom/status/1559680746792529920
https://twitter.com/KariLakeWarRoom/status/1559600559425933312

Gaslighting? Kari Lake is an atlas poster confirmed!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is embarrassing

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

At this point, Hobbs probably has the same chance of winning as Stacey Abrams.

No?

LMAO the way this race is being positioned online is just completely different than the reality of this race. All this talk of "Hobbs running a terrible campaign!" when she's still up slightly in the average and still seems to be doing more campaigning and ad-running than Lake is.

She's literally refusing to debate her opponent. It's a bad look, period! It makes her look like she has something unsavory to hide or worse that she feels like she is above the idea of debating. And it will register with voters soon, it takes time for stuff like this to get out. When Cunninghams scandal came out it took a while for it to actually affect the polling(the polls were always wrong but I remember several Cunningham +8-9 polls and those numbers rarely appeared after the affair broke out).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

For all Hobbs campaign misteps, Lake sure is doing all she can to keep Hobbs hopes alive lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

For all Hobbs campaign misteps, Lake sure is doing all she can to keep Hobbs hopes alive lol

I was told that Kari Lake was the one running a good campaign by the people in this thread though

I mean she's attacking Hobbs on the right issues but her election denialism is a turnoff

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

One very interesting thing is Lake's efforts with the youth vote. They are holding tailgates before ASU games, and have an impressive canvassing operation. During the primary she was also holding rallies in crowded bars. Last year, Lake was advocating for students to ditch mask mandates, while the university establishment was raising fees and prices. This is far different than the traditional AZ GOP operation, and it is worth watching how it plays out.

I think Kari Lake is a good example of someone who is a flawed candidate but a good campaigner. She's scandal ridden, says lots of outrageous things and is generally crazy but she knows how to turn all that off when she has to.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hobbs HAS to do an ad with Cheney. HAS to.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

To think that Liz Cheney would have any impact in a AZ race is laughable. She doesn't even have impact in her home state. Republicans hate her and the only reason democrats "like" her is because she calls out the GOP with every opportunity she has. It's not even a Trump thing anymore either. She is very critical of the majority of modern day Republicans. This isn't a party of neocons anymore. Liz should really leave the Republican party and just become an independent. 

You are ignoring the fact that AZ Republicans do quite well downballot because of people who adore neocons like Liz Cheney. Hobbs appearing with Cheney could get the college Ed vote to match or even exceed 2020. That would be a problem for Lake, who so far has coasted on name recognition from her being a reporter and Hobbs ineptitude as a candidate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hobbs is running an awful campaign. At this point I'm calling the election for Lake. If Hobbs wins I'll consider it an upset.

Not trying to single you out in particular, but it is absolutely infuriating to see 20 people post the same message here over and over again (Hobbs is doomed!!!) because of some minor development on the campaign trail. In this case, it was actual fake news from the Lake campaign that people fell for. Hook, line, and sinker.

You say that this townhall was a "publicity stunt" organized by the Lake campaign. What is your source for this? I've heard that the organization which organized this event was Prensa Arizona, which is a Spanish language publication. Apparently, they extended invitations to both Hobbs and Lake to attend. Lake showed up, but Hobbs did not, and apparently had her campaign manager issue a statement that she couldn't oblige due to her schedule. Is this true? Or was this a stunt?

Because people in my party cannot accept anything other than the Rosiest possible picture of whats happening for them. It's infuriating

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The problem for Lake is that we're 2 weeks out and she still has this albatross around her neck - and much is her own fault. She keeps going on interviews and essentially is constantly keeping the 2020 (and 2022) election denial in the headlines. Not sure why she's so hell-bent on making sure it's still what voters are going to hear about her.

https://twitter.com/sbarchenger/status/1584357184200056832

I have a feeling election denying isn't the third rail people on here people think it is.

CitizenZ, I'm with you on this year being good for Republicans, but you need to learn when to take the l lol. The idea this doesn't matter In a state with a lot of college Ed Romney-Trump-Biden voters doesn't make much sense. Not saying Lake won't win, but her skeletons are toxic to a good portion of the electorate

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What are people saying about Hoffman’s chances of re-election?

It's not looking good. She's down by about 8K votes. It would take a miracle for her to pull ahead.

It sucks because not only does her losing bode ill for public education in Arizona, but she was the best performing statewide Democrat in 2018 and for her to go from that to outright losing reelection just sucks. I feel bad for her.

Lingering resentment for school closings during the pandemic, perhaps?

Horne used to be in the position. He has name recognition + parental choice argument young kin used maybe

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

#Girlboss alert

https://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1628053398326235137

Hot take- AZ D trifecta is very doable and possibly more likely than Biden winning AZ

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Who else thinks Liz Cheney's endorsement was really helpful? I do