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Question: Rate TX 6
#1
Safe R
#2
Likely R
#3
Lean R
#4
Tilt R
#5
Tilt D
#6
Lean D
#7
Likely D
#8
Safe D
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Rate TX 6  (Read 907 times)
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,304
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

« on: May 19, 2020, 02:32:31 PM »

Is Stephen Daniel particularly noteworthy? Any better than Jana Lynne Sanchez?

No. Personally called my dad and asked for donations today, that is what sparked this thread. He’s not raised much and he is pretty much a generic D.
Still think it's a Tossup, but Daniel is kind of a dud so Wright might outperform Trump. I wouldn't count this one out though.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,304
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2020, 11:45:01 AM »

TX is a Tossup. If TX flips to Biden, he will win this district. It voted for Cruz 51-48, and given suburban trends, this on definitely votes D in a Biden midtern. And again, candidate quality is overrated. Yes, Daniel is a lousy recruit but given polarization it's possible it doesnt make a difference. I shouldnt have said tossup, it's more Lean R. And of course, we cant underestimate the incompetency of the dccc, which is wasting money trying to win ME-02 NY-22 instead
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,304
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2020, 05:38:05 PM »

TX is a Tossup. If TX flips to Biden, he will win this district. It voted for Cruz 51-48, and given suburban trends, this on definitely votes D in a Biden midtern. And again, candidate quality is overrated. Yes, Daniel is a lousy recruit but given polarization it's possible it doesnt make a difference. I shouldnt have said tossup, it's more Lean R. And of course, we cant underestimate the incompetency of the dccc, which is wasting money trying to win ME-02 NY-22 instead

It voted for Trump 54.2-42. If you think this district is "tossup to lean r," what do you think TX-24 is? Safe D?
It voted for Cruz by 3 pts even though he had a 51-39 approval rating
And I dont want to hear about "muh D+9 year" You had GOP turnout through the roof and yet Cruz still had still had the weakest performance of any republican in recent TX history.
Trump is toxic in areas like these, and no, incumbency will not help. But fine, write this off af safe R. Just dont be surprised if he loses.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,304
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2020, 05:40:12 PM »

Right, because a district that voted for Cruz by 3 pts(his statewide margin) is totally Safe R.
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