IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Vilsack is nominated he will lose by 10-15 points. That I can see from far away.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe R, nothing else to see here

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Vilsack will do worse then Hillary, Braley and Chet Culver. 14-15 points

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wait, do people actually think that Vilsack could outperform the Democratic nominee by as much as Bayh or Bredesen? Seriously, maybe he’d "outperform" by as much as Tommy Thompson on a good night for Democrats, but more likely he collapses like Ted Strickland and loses by double digits. He’s not beating a relatively popular incumbent Republican Senator in a state like Iowa, especially since it’s fairly likely that Trump wins the state by 6% or more in 2020 (even if he loses reelection), and in that case even someone like Scholten would most likely lose unless Ernst runs a garbage/Roy Blunt tier campaign. People are saying that Ernst couldn’t possibly win by a lot because reasons, but I’m old enough to remember when people said the same thing about the "very vulnerable" Rob Portman. Of course Ernst isn’t completely safe, but she’s definitely not more vulnerable than Tillis, Gardner, Daines, Cornyn, or Perdue.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

She’s definitely favored, and this notion that the 2014/2016 results were a fluke in Iowa but not in Ohio (which is Likely R and going to vote 10+ points to the right of Iowa from now on because reasons) is as absurd as saying that Arizona is still a Lean/Likely R state. Democrats could easily take the Senate in 2020, but there’s really no way Iowa will be the tipping point race. Yes, the state can be swingy, but there are far better targets for Democrats, especially if Trump wins reelection.

BUT MUH 2012

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I swearif Joni Ernst hadmy grown her hair out, she would have more #populist appeal lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I hope hat the people of Iowa are not stupid enough to reelect this joke of a senator. But I won't believe we are ahead here until I get a poll showing Greenfield ahead by 6-7 due to GOP overperformances in Iowa in 14, 16, and 18