Japan General Discussion

[Lachi]

RIP the democrats in Tokyo for the forseeable future

[Lachi]

Is there any way these numbers might give Renhō a second lease on life or is she definitely going to be turfed out after the Tokyo elections regardless?

She's a goner.

[Lachi]

What do you think the fallout could be from this?

[Lachi]

Murata is a dead woman walking right now. This kind of polling would be fatal for any leader

Also, imgur doesn't work on the forums.

[Lachi]

I like how no party would be the biggest opposition if it was an actual party XD

[Lachi]

I was just thinking back today to after the 2015 British general election when Cameron called Abe and said something like "here's to another five years working together". Abe didn't respond because he didn't want to come across as too eager to change the rules for the LDP leadership to stay in power longer. Now, Cameron is already out and Abe may very well still be in office in three years.

When will the heat be on for Abe to change the rules? This year or next right?

LDP already changed the rules.

http://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/LDP-passes-rule-change-that-could-see-Abe-remain-PM-until-2021

Abe just has to win the next election and he can be PM into the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and into 2021

Oh god no...

[Lachi]

Question.

What has cause the Democrats to just collapse this damn quickly?

[Lachi]

So basically, the Democrats need a more appealing, comprimising leader? Or is it more complex than that.

[Lachi]

I find something interesting about the General elections in Japan.

I notice that even in normal elections (LDP landslides), Aichi stays pretty reliably Democrat for the most part, with them winning nearly half the seats a lot of the time, and historically sweeping the prefecture. I have no clue why, and I've tried looking into it, but not really finding anything.

[Lachi]

Used to live in Osaka for 7 years. My wife is Japanese. I worked for a Japanese companies for 12 years till 3 years ago. Now working for Korean company but still heavily with Japanese automakers.

From a libertarian POV what party seems most in line with ideas of economic freedom? I don't see any great examples.

Of course few are involved in politics. Except when it was sort of too late some millennials were protesting the role of the military or a good deal of nuclear energy post-Fukushima.

Campaigning seems so quaint with the posters and the little vans. Except when the uyoku vans roll by.

For me Your Party which became defunct came the closest Libertarian ideals.  While it was there I backed YP.  I think in theory Koike's TPFA could also become such a party.  Both has the problem of being just another LDP faction that uses neo-liberal economic ideals to attract votes but the real agenda is personal aggrandizement. 

Koike is very much a conservative, and I don't think she would let her party go in that direction.

[Lachi]

Abe is a dead man walking imo.

[Lachi]

Yeah, but that could be up to a year and a half away. That is plenty of time for him to redo his public image.

[Lachi]

Taro Aso? you mean the one who lead the LDP to a landslide defeat?
I really don't think the LDP would want their leader to have that kind of legacy.

Also, who do you think would be the most likely successor for the DP?

[Lachi]

The problem with the opposition in Japan, and I think Japanese politics in general, is that the factionalism that is so prominent in the political parties in Japan is getting to a point where a solidly unified opposition might is nigh impossible at this time. The politicians who splinter off don't seem to realise that them moving to new parties is just going to take the vote away from their old party, and is only going to help the party who they are opposed to in the first place.

#ANALYSIS

[Lachi]

wow the Democrats are falling apart quickly.

[Lachi]

I REALLY don't want it to happen, but It's looking like the LDP might get a massive super majority all by itself the way the opposition is going.