Which of these states will first go Democrat?

[A18]

Kerry has no chance in Virginia. The state's solid GOP and it's staying that way.

[A18]

It's +6 Mason-Dixon, +11 Survey USA

Bush is to Virginia as Kerry is to Washington. Only a complete hyperpartisan would predict a Kerry landslide, which is the only thing that would move VA into the Democratic column.

Just because you live here doesn't mean the state is in play. I'm sure if I was in California, I'd like to think it was a battleground state too.

[A18]

Zogby internet polls are complete garbage. I believe they have Arizona and Arkansas as tied.

What? Your two best friends don't like Bush? That's not really a scientific trend...

Bush has a 54% JA rating here. Four or five points would make it close, but it wouldn't flip the state.

[A18]

I think 2000 was before Zogby started the internet survey method. I'm sure his telephone polls are fine.

The reason Gore won the popular vote is because of that DUI report. It wouldn't have been a close election without it.

Clinton came close because of Ross Perot. That was 45%, a full 4 points worse than his national average.

There's no such thing as a Democrat "nailing" Virginia. He could, however, squeak out a victory with a 7-8 point lead nationally.

Hasn't happened since Lyndon Johnson.