How will Iowa vote in the GE?

[Desroko]

@ Virginia - the Republican party is incontrovertibly incompatible in its current  formulation with the millennial generation on social issues.  but, assuming they eventually wise up and change, how strong do you think the effects of generational imprinting will be, given that partisan identification in general has drastically declined?

Partisan identification has declined over the past few decades, but partisan polarization has actually increased.

[Desroko]

@ Virginia - the Republican party is incontrovertibly incompatible in its current  formulation with the millennial generation on social issues.  but, assuming they eventually wise up and change, how strong do you think the effects of generational imprinting will be, given that partisan identification in general has drastically declined?

Partisan identification has declined over the past few decades, but partisan polarization has actually increased.

Is the imprinting the result of an emotional attachment to a party or a mental attachment to a set of ideas?

Why not both?

But seriously, there is both more ideological polarization and fewer swing voters than at any point since the WWII, and maybe Reconstruction - though we lack robust ideological data for that timeframe. People like to call themselves "independents" and whatever, you do you, but they're consistently voting for one party over another at higher rates than in living memory.

[Desroko]

@ Virginia - the Republican party is incontrovertibly incompatible in its current  formulation with the millennial generation on social issues.  but, assuming they eventually wise up and change, how strong do you think the effects of generational imprinting will be, given that partisan identification in general has drastically declined?

Partisan identification has declined over the past few decades, but partisan polarization has actually increased.

Is the imprinting the result of an emotional attachment to a party or a mental attachment to a set of ideas?

Why not both?

But seriously, there is both more ideological polarization and fewer swing voters than at any point since the WWII, and maybe Reconstruction - though we lack robust ideological data for that timeframe. People like to call themselves "independents" and whatever, you do you, but they're consistently voting for one party over another at higher rates than in living memory.

I guess the point is if the parties undergo ideological realignment the ideological gulf might be jeopardized if the imprinting is based on ideology alone.

It would, though there's scant evidence of that actually happening - and realignments happen slowly, not overnight.