This is the least surprising result to people who have actually been paying attention. It's only this site where you see "IA is now MO" or "IA R+15" takes. Yes, Trump may still be a slight favorite here. No, the margin won't even come close to last time. Not sure how many times some of us in the midwest have to repeat how uniquely toxic HRC is here and how that fact alone had an impact on results in 2016.
Ernst should be worried. With Greenfield pulling 10% of Trump supporters it's no longer unlikely that he carries Iowa and she loses.
As someone from IA, what are you seeing on the ground there? Do these results make sense?
I think it's going to be close so the results seem fitting. I'm not sure if I have any unique takes that others wouldn't have in their home area. A few observations:
-Compared to 2016 people have dug into whatever side they're on and are more vocal about it. Here in 2016 you didn't see a lot of yard signs (for Trump or Clinton). It seemed like a lot of their own supporters were embarrassed by them. Now I see tons of Trump and Biden signs.
-The urban/rural divide exists here even though IA doesn't have any large urban areas. This does create a somewhat "shy" effect of rural Biden voters and urban Trump voters.
-A lot of 2016 3rd party/no show vote that naturally would have been democrat in 2016 seems to be coming home for Biden now. This has been reflected in polling too. Lets not forget that the Clinton/Sanders divide was amplified here at a state level that was somewhat unique to the national narrative. Everyone talks about the 2020 caucus disaster but 2016 wasn't great either. It was a close race here and I think the outcome and seeing some of the failures of the caucus process then left a bad taste in some democrats' mouths. It really fit with the narrative of Clinton "being part of the system."
-I see a lot of people getting involved or vocal when they are usually more private about politics. I don't think that's unique to here, but it is interesting to see.
