IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[indietraveler]

To address some points here:

- Braley lost the second he was caught on tape calling Chuck Grassley a "farmer from Iowa with no law degree." No matter what he did, he wasn't going to come back from that. Yes, he was 100% true, but farmers took that as a knock against them, and you do not upset the farmers in Iowa.

- The only reason Trump won Iowa by such a big margin is because of how much Clinton was hated. I have friends that believe in everything about the Democratic Party and were ardent Obama supporters, but HATED Clinton. Why? I have no idea, but all of them were ardent Sanders supporters. When he suspended his campaign, they all swarmed to Gary Johnson. Trust me when I say, without Clinton on the ballot, Democrats are going to do a whole lot better.

2018 was actually Democrats' best election cycle in several years in Iowa. They picked up a state office they haven't held since the '60s (state auditor), picked up two U.S. House seats, almost picked up a third, and just barely lost the governors' mansion. All things considered, I think that's a great sign for Democrats, and they'd be completely foolish to not seriously challenge Ernst.

Agree with this. Trump's 9 point win was at 51% when everyone is acting like it was in the mid-50s. A combination of the environment in 2016 and the dislike of Clinton is what got him that margin. This was a weak 9 point win. I know way too many democrats here who wrote in Sanders, voted 3rd party, or just didn't vote upon Clinton winning the nomination.

Iowa is definitely lean R, but this whole talk of "it shouldn't be contested anymore" is crazy. The right D candidate would win.

However, I do think Ernst will outperform Trump by a noticeable margin here. I won't be surprised if she gets reelected and Trump loses the state if he's up against Biden or Sanders. Anyone perceived as a coastal elitist will have a harder time.

[indietraveler]

I'm still highly skeptical but less so now given polling (and not just today's) showing Ernst not being as popular as she once was.

This is still Ernst's to lose at this point. Likely R but much closer to lean than safe.

[indietraveler]

Greenfield and state democrats should question Ernst on her thoughts on the governor's recent announcement regarding schools. And if she gives a half ass answer they need to tie her to Reynolds. Seeing a lot of conservative leaners or people not typically involved in politics pissed that she threw out each and every school districts individual plan for starting the year.

[indietraveler]

Greenfield and state democrats should question Ernst on her thoughts on the governor's recent announcement regarding schools. And if she gives a half ass answer they need to tie her to Reynolds. Seeing a lot of conservative leaners or people not typically involved in politics pissed that she threw out each and every school districts individual plan for starting the year.

I feel that could work in the Des Moines suburbs pretty well. I didn’t realize Reynolds threw out the school’s plans.

Yes, parents have the option for keep their kids at home but schools have to be open in person for more than half the time. Schools here spent a lot of time developing their own guidelines based on community outreach and other data.

It's probably more effective if it's framed along the lines of "schools should get to decide..." and not have it be about stuff like masks. I think that narrative would have appeal beyond just the suburbs. Schools also now have to work with the state for shutting down when there is an outbreak and the standard was also lowered for qualifying to be a substitute teacher.

The whole thing has been fairly vague yet restrictive. The most details/metrics of any kind given are the lower standard for subs now, which in a way is just admitting that you know teachers will get sick and you will still try to push on.

[indietraveler]

Greenfield and state democrats should question Ernst on her thoughts on the governor's recent announcement regarding schools. And if she gives a half ass answer they need to tie her to Reynolds. Seeing a lot of conservative leaners or people not typically involved in politics pissed that she threw out each and every school districts individual plan for starting the year.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but is it pretty much a given that Auditor Sand runs against her in 2022? He’s been a huge critic on Twitter

I wouldn't be surprised but I guess I'm not sure how much of a given it is. He would be a pretty good choice.