2008 Senate Races - Bad Map for Republicans

[Joe Biden 2020]

Don't forget Oklahoma.  Sen. Jim Inhofe is highly unpopular back at home.  Its likely, that a good Democrat could knock Inhofe off and reclaim an Oklahoma seat for the Democrats for the first time since 1994 when then Sen. David Boren retired to assume the presidency of the University of Oklahoma and Sen. Jim Inhofe was elected.

Oklahoma is trending Democratic, as well.  We just re-elected a Democratic Governor by an overwhelming margin in 2006 against a highly respected Oklahoma Republican Former Congressman Ernest Istook of CD-5.

Oklahoma will still probably go Republican in 2008 for the Presidency, but it won't be by as large of a margin as 2004.  The GOP candidate will struggle to reach 55%, with most likely around 53 or 54%.

I would put Oklahoma Senate from the safe Republican to barely lean Republican, possibly Republican-leaning toss-up.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The Democrats have a chance at defeating Senator Dole of North Carolina. Senator Warner of Virginia who has been whining about how he fillibustered his own bill could be vulnerable, or could retire. If Domenici retires, that race should be competitive.

All three of those seats are very prime targets for Democrats.  Especially if John Edwards were to win the Democratic Nomination for President, that would, imo, put North Carolina and Virginia as toss-ups.

[Joe Biden 2020]

As I said in another thread, I can see the GOP losing a net of 2 seats for the 111th Senate, no matter who the nominee is, giving them a 53-47 majority.  I'll give them Louisiana, depending on what happens with Governor Kathleen Blanco this November, but I'll give Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota to the Democrats.  If Guiliani or Romney is nominated, NH has a better chance of staying GOP, but thats a big if.  If McCain is nominated, it increases the GOP's chance in Colorado, but still not likely.  If Huckabee or Brownback is nominated, all three will go Democrat.  As of now, until I see some formidable opponents, I am going to keep Mississippi and Oklahoma in GOP hands, but with the knowledge that they could change and give the Democrats a net gain of 4 seats, giving them a 55-45 majority.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I agree with Harry that if Cochran does not retire, Mississippi is safe GOP, if Cochran does retire, Mississippi could go Democrat, especially with the Democrats hatred of Trent Lott, the Junior Mississippi Senator.

I would also add, again, that Oklahoma is definitely not safe GOP.  It is lean GOP, possibly an unsung swing state in the Senate race.  Jim Inhofe is not very popular in Oklahoma right now, and the Oklahoma Democratic Party, a VERY strong party, will mount every effort possible to unseat Inhofe.