Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[bilaps]

The TX-34 result obviously isn't good for Democrats, but objectively, the Democrats didn't even try here. Flores quite literally outspent Sanchez over 20:1, given the fact that this district is not going to exist later this year in its current form.

Right now, it's about R+5 in total votes, compared to Biden +4 in 2020.

Again, not a *good* result for Ds, but given the midterm environment right now and the fact that Rs actually tried here and Ds didn't, it could've been quite worse.

Oh, it will get worse. Just wait.

[bilaps]

GOP works overtime getting out the vote/upping their ground game while Dems work overtime on fundraising for races they have no chance in smh

How on earth will this party stay afloat when they're bleeding ground with Hispanics the same way they bled with Appalachia after 2008? Where are they actually gaining to make up for this massive L? Don't tell me suburbs, because those gains were definitely not permanent.

While I agree Dems need to adjust their messaging, what evidence do you have that their suburban/college educated gains aren’t “perminent”, at least any more so than GOP’s with Hispanics. Places like Gwinnett County and Collin are not going back to being R + 20 in a normal election cause they’re physically very different counties than they used to be.

Also generally speaking the National electorate is changing in a way that favored democrats. Does this mean they’ll get a permanent winning coalition? No. But as the nation gets more urban, educated, and diverse the gop HAS to gain with some of these voters to stay viable

We have been saying all of that since 2012 and look where it has gotten us. The GOP *has* been making gains with some urban voters and some Asian demographics as well. We are the ones who need to be making gains in the other party's demographics to stay viable. We can't just be relying on college educated voters all the time.

The GOP's gains with urban voters are dubious at best, and a lot of the Hispanic strength in 2020 had to do with Trump being an incumbent as well.

Remember when NM-01 was supposed to show the collapse of Dems with Hispanics last year and nothing happened? Yes, the Dems have work to do with Latinos, but I think the data is extremely muddy overall, given we've also seen numerous polling now that shows Dems still have strength with that group.

I think the data in November will be pretty clear that we're losing a ton of ground with them. Let's just wait and see I guess

He'll say that it's because of Biden or environment nationally just like he said it's because Trump's incumbency. Heard that one before and never made any sense to me.