538 Democratic primary model is up (user search)
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  538 Democratic primary model is up (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 Democratic primary model is up  (Read 9527 times)
bilaps
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Posts: 1,789
« on: January 29, 2020, 09:36:33 AM »

LOL, they had an error in a code which overplayed home state, region bounces instead of downplaying them and now Biden has surged from 41 to 45 when they corrected it.
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bilaps
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,789
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2020, 08:33:37 AM »

New model has no majority at 60%, but Biden narrowly trailing Sanders being pretty close in delegates. When Bloomberg drops, this probably means Biden and Sanders finish with a very similar number of delegates. As such, I'd give Sanders a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination outright, Biden a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination outright, and Biden a 1/3 shot of getting the nomination on the second ballot. As such, Biden is the overwhelming favorite to be the nominee, has been the frontrunner from the start, and has honestly run a solid campaign. It's time to unite behind our likely nominee.

Delusional
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