POD is Garland gets confirmed in 2016
Chief Justice: John G. Robert (Appointed by President Bush, 2006)
Associate Justice: Sonia Sotomayor (Appointed by President Obama, 2009)
Associate Justice: Elena Kagan (Appointed by President Obama, 2010)
Associate Justice: Merrick Garland (Appointed by President Obama, 2016)
Associate Justice: Neil Gorsuch (Appointed by President Trump, 2018)*
Associate Justice: Amy Coney Barrett (Appointed by President Trump, 2020)**
Associate Justice: Bernice Donald (Appointed by President Biden, 2021)***
Associate Justice: Wilhelmina Wright (Appointed by President Biden, 2024)****
Associate Justice: Justin Walker (Appointed by President Hawley, 2027)#
* Replacing Justice Anthony Kennedy, who retired
** Replacing Justice Ginsburg, who died
*** Replacing Justice Breyer, who retired
**** Replacing Clarence Thomas, who died
# Replacing Samuel Alito, who retired
I question if Trump still wins in 2016 in this scenario. It seems like the open seat was a deciding factor for a lot of his more reluctant voters and without it being open I’m not sure he could pull off his narrow victory.