Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (user search)
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  Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1  (Read 212900 times)
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #50 on: November 10, 2018, 06:12:09 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:56:30 PM
Quote from: Lou Barletta's Teeth on November 10, 2018, 05:51:47 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:50:07 PM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on November 10, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 05:28:10 PM
Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins
Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?


Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.
That should be worrying for the pro-Sinema crowd, given tomorrow's Mariciopa dump is bigger than today's.


Well, the question is, how much did McSally improved?

If McSally is winning in a blowout, then it's worrying.

If McSally is winning by a much smaller margin or drawing even, there's no reason to worry.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #51 on: November 10, 2018, 06:13:49 PM »
Navajo made another drop apparently.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #52 on: November 10, 2018, 06:18:28 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #53 on: November 10, 2018, 06:22:51 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2018, 06:32:25 PM by pppolitics »
Quote from: Gass3268 on November 10, 2018, 06:18:46 PM
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 10, 2018, 06:14:44 PM
I’m really confused why everyone is acting like this is a forgone conclusion.

I could easily see McSally winning this, unfortunately

She's getting almost nothing from her last favorable out-state counties. Plus Maricopa Pot B is only about 40K more than Pima + Maricopa Pot A.

Bucket A (297,104 ballots) is actually bigger than Bucket B (195,296 ballots)
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #54 on: November 10, 2018, 06:28:53 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #55 on: November 10, 2018, 06:47:57 PM »
Quote from: henster on November 10, 2018, 06:44:41 PM
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 10, 2018, 06:42:32 PM
Quote from: henster on November 10, 2018, 06:39:22 PM
The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.
Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.


Yea I know but those ballots counted today out of Navajo were likely from election day as they were the last one counted and they trended heavy R. Maricopa election day vote was supposedly heavy R too so she could conceivably get the same overperformance there.

It has already been discussed to dead.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #56 on: November 10, 2018, 06:55:57 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #57 on: November 10, 2018, 07:05:29 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #58 on: November 10, 2018, 07:15:50 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 10, 2018, 07:10:40 PM
So what was dropped? The Pro-Sinema vote bucket or the Pro-McSally vote bucket?  I'm confused.

both, apparently
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #59 on: November 10, 2018, 07:19:07 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #60 on: November 10, 2018, 07:34:38 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #61 on: November 10, 2018, 07:39:38 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #62 on: November 10, 2018, 08:48:15 PM »
Quote from: henster on November 10, 2018, 08:36:10 PM
Even the Sinema camp was conceding batch B was R+10 and the McSally camp confirmed it per Vaughn Hillyard tweet. And the theory of the batch being more favorable to her was confirmed by today's dump as it was much less than previous which were from batch A.

1. That's VOTER REGISTRATION, not how people vote.

2. That's assuming that the late earlys vote the same way as the the votes on E-day.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #63 on: November 10, 2018, 08:59:13 PM »


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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #64 on: November 10, 2018, 10:24:27 PM »
Quote from: The Inevitable Kevin Stitt on November 10, 2018, 09:14:51 PM
Quote from: Virginiá on November 10, 2018, 09:05:14 PM
Incredibly excited over AZ Secretary of State results so far Curly

(might just be the most nerdiest thing said ever)

Me too. Because:

1. Ducey wouldn’t run for Senate in 2020 if Hobbs was SOS (he would be the best NRSC recruit)
2. Election oversight
3. Hobbs would stand an excellent chance of becoming AZ Gov in her own right given how many past Secretaries of State have become Governor of Arizona

Alternatively, if Ducey runs for senate and win, we pickup the governor seat.

Still a win.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #65 on: November 11, 2018, 01:21:54 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 11, 2018, 12:52:12 PM
Why does it take Arizona and California so long to count their votes?  I can understand why some mail ballots don't arrive until after the election, but for the most part that doesn't seem to be the case here.
If the ballots are already in, why don't they just count them on election night like everyone else?

Arizona apparently have machines from the 1980s that can only read so many ballots per day.

Also, Arizona requires signatures on the ballots to be matched to signatures on the voter registration.

If the signatures don't match, election officials have to contact the voters.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,966
« Reply #66 on: November 11, 2018, 01:22:35 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #67 on: November 11, 2018, 01:31:01 PM »
The batch that Maricopa is going to drop today is supposedly pro-McSally.

Let's see how that plays out.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #68 on: November 11, 2018, 01:43:36 PM »

~1300
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #69 on: November 11, 2018, 03:58:05 PM »
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #70 on: November 11, 2018, 07:04:07 PM »
Maricopa dropped
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #71 on: November 11, 2018, 07:07:41 PM »
LOL,

NYT still has Steve Gayner wining despite having fewer votes:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-arizona-elections.html
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #72 on: November 11, 2018, 07:34:30 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on November 11, 2018, 07:28:54 PM
Is Pinal county still posting today?    That'll most likely wipe out Hobbs' lead.

Until Pima county drop and put her back in the lead
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #73 on: November 11, 2018, 07:49:43 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2018, 07:52:57 PM by pppolitics »
Quote from: Badger on November 11, 2018, 07:48:22 PM
Quote from: lfromnj on November 11, 2018, 06:59:10 PM
yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead?
I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona.

I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closest of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate.

It would be fun to beat her a second time.

An appointed incumbent simply doesn't have a staying power of an elected incumbent.
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pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,966
« Reply #74 on: November 11, 2018, 09:11:28 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2018, 11:57:36 PM by pppolitics »


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