COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Meclazine for Israel]

Isn't it just the nature of exponentials? I know we've been having these long tails, but in theory the graph of cases should be a bell curve, and it goes down as fast as it went up.

That is what I was thinking at the start, and in most cases, yes. But then in the USA another bell curve came, and then another more devastating bell curve was superimposed on top of that.

The only saving grace is that the mortality rate is dropping as time progresses (treatment, less venerable hosts, vaccination)

Never anticipated people would be so against vaccination. We need a lot of people vaccinated to make sure this thing does no become endemic like the flu.

I think people opposed to vaccination are a tiny minority. They may be vocal, but all the anecdotal evidence I am seeing is that there aren’t that many people opposed to it.

A doctor (epdemiologist) in Australia has said that 70% of the world will not be vaccinated until 2027.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I hope the Biden admin keeps turning the tide against Covid-19 and its variants.

Are we actually finally "turning the corner" for real?

On the variant we've been dealing with for a year, probably. On the new strains, who knows. The vaccines are effective, but they're a lot more contagious.

True, but we have no real proof on whether people who have had the first variant are vulnerable to the new strains. That's the big question here.

It’s possible but I would hope some immunity would transfer.

Quite definitely. It works a bit like the following.

People develop their strongest immunity at a young age to their first flu.

If that is a H2N2 variety, then later in their life, they have a special resistance to H2N2 flu variants.

So children at 3-12 years of age in this pandemic are developing the best immunity to COVID-19 which will stay with them for life.

So the immunity level is roughly inversely proportional to their age.

As you get older, your chances of developing a strong immunity to these viruses lessen, hence the reason why the oldest will receive the vaccine first.

To learn more, this is the man with an excellent level of experience of what these things are:

Bruce E. Fleury, Ph.D.

Mysteries of the Microscopic World

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MHT5xTkL2g

Once you have watched that and understood that stuff, then this next guy explains the answer that actually describes your comment perfectly:

Michael Worobey, Professor, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Arizona

The Genesis of the 1918 Spanish Influenza Pandemic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48Klc3DPdtk

Now that video is a real eye opener for the context of what is going on today and the next 50 years in terms of immunity of different age groups.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Incredible how quickly case numbers have dropped. Looks like deaths are starting to drop too! We may have this virus under control by summer!

May-June looks good for the end of this thing*.

*(But I promised that last year as well)

[Meclazine for Israel]

Really glad to hear that since Jan 1, daily case numbers in the USA have dropped from 300,000 per day to 50,000.

Hopefully this vaccine knocks it on its head and my US friends are safe for good.

I cannot imagine what you guys have been through, but I am happy that you are now seeing the end of this pandemic.

Stay safe

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia's Department of Health has made a significant medical breakthrough in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

I know you guys think that because Australia has virtually no COVID-19 virus, we are not able to research the application of the vaccine in terms of the prevention of the virus. But this article proves we are at the pinnacle of medical research:

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/is-it-true/is-it-true-can-covid-19-vaccines-connect-me-to-the-internet

"Can COVID-19 vaccines connect me to the internet?
COVID-19 vaccines do not – and cannot – connect you to the internet."

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia's Department of Health has made a significant medical breakthrough in the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

I know you guys think that because Australia has virtually no COVID-19 virus, we are not able to research the application of the vaccine in terms of the prevention of the virus. But this article proves we are at the pinnacle of medical research:

https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/is-it-true/is-it-true-can-covid-19-vaccines-connect-me-to-the-internet

"Can COVID-19 vaccines connect me to the internet?
COVID-19 vaccines do not – and cannot – connect you to the internet."

Damn, so much NWO Bill Gates conspiracies and they can't evne make a chip that can connect you to the internet? Big disappointment

Apparently Elon said you could get Zune through the vaccines.

Hoping the vaccine improves my reception as my download speeds are pitiful

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://twitter.com/samjawed65/status/1385546644922507265

This is an excellent though somewhat long thread describing how things got out of control in India.  Unrolled version: https://threader.app/thread/1385546644922507265

The government response strongly reminds me of what I picture a second Trump administration would have done, and where the U.S. would be now.

That is beyond mental.

We had 1 positive case in Perth the other day and that locked down 2M people.

But look at India.

This is the bad sci-fi movie scenario we thought would never happen (except for Beet).

Thoughts for all the impoverished in India who cannot escape this.

[Meclazine for Israel]

This is the bad sci-fi movie scenario we thought would never happen (except for Beet).

This simulation from October 2019 had 65 million deaths.

https://www.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1

Yes,

They are in serious trouble now.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-26/australia-supplies-oxygen-ventilators-india-covid-spike/100095816

The pandemic now becomes a tsunami on certain societies.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Pfizer #1 gave me several side effects. Major headache, dizziness etc. Which made me scared about Pfizer #2..

Pfizer #2 gave me zero side effects whatsoever and if anything I feel much better than I have in a very long time after being injected with Pfizer 2.

I am just going to get Pfizer #2 then.

[Meclazine for Israel]

India just came in at an eye-watering 386,452 new daily cases with many cases going undiagnosed in the country.

The corollary of record breaking cases will be felt in 3 weeks time.

It does not look like they have the necessary social infrastructure to back out of this one.

[Meclazine for Israel]

In 90 days time, Brazil will take the title of highest mortality from the USA.

In 45 days time, India will take the title of highest case numbers from the USA.

[Meclazine for Israel]

India had 412k cases yesterday, a new record.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-06/india-record-covid-rural-areas/100122158

I wonder if these mass infections help produce new variants. Perhaps this will make the disease endemic in some areas.

[Meclazine for Israel]

"India recorded more than 750,000 new cases over the weekend".

Don't open link if you are eating breakfast.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/covid-india-who-bodies-wash-up-on-banks-of-ganges-river/100130032

New Indian strain may be on the way.

[Meclazine for Israel]

"India recorded more than 750,000 new cases over the weekend".

Don't open link if you are eating breakfast.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-11/covid-india-who-bodies-wash-up-on-banks-of-ganges-river/100130032

New Indian strain may be on the way.

Yeah, the field of pyres are bad enough but it turns out things can be worse.

Here's a BBC article about Indian press trying to figure out the extent of India's undercount.  Spoiler alert....it's huge

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56969086

Yes, gross underestimation of what is going on, especially in poor rural areas. They don't have the social infrastructure in place.

"The brutal wave of COVID-19 infections has spread from the cities to small towns and the countryside, ripping through a fragile health system ill-equipped for a crisis of this scale.

In the capital, New Delhi, many COVID-19 victims are abandoned by their relatives after cremation, leaving volunteers to wash the ashes, pray over them, and then scatter them in the river — rituals usually conducted by the family."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-12/india-sets-new-death-record-as-experts-fear-the-peak/100134796

Australia has blocked all flights from India.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Indonesia and SE Asia are starting to climb.

https://www.watoday.com.au/world/asia/death-rates-surge-as-virus-hit-indonesia-confronts-oxygen-supply-crisis-20210705-p586z0.html

5 out of top 16 countries are in SE Asia now.

The USA was not in the top 16 countries yesterday.

[Meclazine for Israel]

So now there's a lambda variant? This is just getting silly.

I can safely say this coming up right when I'm finally feeling confident to go out again really isn't good for the anxiety.

Turn off the news and you'll be fine.  Fully vaccinated people are not dying in record numbers.  In fact, they aren't really dying at all.  You might get a cold... so what? You're more likely to get into a fatal auto accident or be a victim of gun violence.  Seriously~!

I have literal anxiety and panic disorder so rationalizing it away doesn't work unfortunately. I've also permanently ceased going on various main roads around here due to a few close calls. If anything checking the news (at least Atlas, I've avoided cable news already for years prior) is removing unknowns and what ifs that I'd otherwise dwell on.

It's just frustrating feeling just as I feel able to overcome one worry, here comes another possible one.

Try this. I had an old girlfriend on the weekend talking herself into oblivion over COVID-19 over the phone. I actually had to stop her and say she needs to pay attention to other things.

Just make a rule. No negative self-talk.

What happens with the vast majority of humans is when things start going bad, the brain predicts things will get worse. Unequivocally, when events go really well, human beings will continue to predict that the future will go even better (and go and buy a rolex and a sports car on credit).

So with the COVID-19 thing, people enter a downward negative trend, and when it is over, they are still trapped in that mental mindset, and unless they have friends and family to lift their spirits, it's almost impossible to break quickly.

The trick is to stop any "negative self-talk".

It sounds simply, but it's not very easy.

But one needs to only say positive things, dont think negative thoughts about others (even in your own private mind) and change the topic and/or avoid talking about COVID altogether.

That really helps me break that cycle of negativity feeding back into itself after I experience a negative experience in life.

[Meclazine for Israel]

You are most likely going to get COVID multiple times in the next decade.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-17/pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-herd-immunity-delta-covid-evolution/100366038

"Over the next decade, [it's] likely we will be infected multiple times. [And it's] much, much better if [the first infection] is in a vaccinated state."

Vaccination is our only hope.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Delta variant is ripping through western Sydney's ethnic communities and starting up in Melbourne. Once in a household, it infects everyone who is unvaccinated.

When Dec 2021-Jan 2022 comes around in the US, watch out:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2021-08-28/nsw-covid-number-high-lockdowns-victoria-cases/100409856

The old COVID had a previous R factor of 1.3, things were manageable for COVID-19.

But the Delta variant has an estimated R factor of between 5-9. This will be near-impossible to stop in the winter months in the US in Dec/Jan.

It is estimated that in the next 10 years, based on those numbers, every person in the western world will get COVID-19 three times.

[Meclazine for Israel]

COVID lockdowns in Melbourne extended for 3 weeks.

Sydney also in lockdown and about to turn into the 4th Reich under Kommandant Gladys Berejiklian:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusDownunder/comments/pfkk54/nsw_gladys_update_remix/

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia (NSW and VIC) just had the highest two days of infections since the outbreak began.

We have about 4-6 weeks to wait before the warm weather comes back and the vaccinations start to take effect.

It will be interesting to find out if natural immunity to COVID-19 is more long lasting than Pfizer, Moderna or Astra Zeneca.

The people who have already been infected will be OK.

People who are vaccinated will be OK.

And then the humid Australian summer massively reduces transmission rates outdoors.

[Meclazine for Israel]

People need to be arrested and fined for violating COVID restrictions and for any disorderly conduct related to violations.

Come to Australia then.

Jewish congregation gets $30,000 in fines and shut down for an illegal gathering.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-07/victoria-police-responding-possible-breaches-religious-gathering/100441768

Weird that ABC try and write the article without using the word 'jewish' until the 23rd paragraph.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If Pfizer watered down their vaccine doses just to minimize what are already quite mild side effects, then that's incredibly disturbing in my opinion. If that's true then I'm especially not eager to give them the benefit of the doubt on booster shots, and if a third shot becomes necessary I'd much rather get it from Moderna or J&J if that's safe.

Changing vaccine and vaccine type will be encouraged as it provides wider coverage.

I will be trying to get Pfizer first (double dose) starting tomorrow and after those, 6 months later, boosting with Moderna.

The best vaccination response will be 4-6 year olds who have never had the flu before getting the actual COVId virus.

Their immune system will be written around that as their strongest and most lasting  immunity.

Your earliest immune responses to these things in life are your best.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Got my first Pfizer shot today.

Although there is no COVID-19 in Western Australia still glad to get this process underway.

Arm is a bit sore, but apart from that, feeling fine.

21 days until my 2nd shot.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Question for the Americans.

How are people going with entering society in it's current state?

I spoke to an American yesterday about not sending Fedex, but he said there was no alternative as he was not prepared to visit the USPS in San Francisco at the risk of becoming infected.

In Western Australia, we have no COVID, so it's something that does not come to mind at present.

Any tips, behaviours or places that you are avoiding to reduce chances of infection.

[Meclazine for Israel]

If it’s not under control by the end of the year it will probably have killed more people than AIDS has.

Interesting point.

At the moment in the USA, there are

HIV+ = 1.2M active cases
COVID-19 = 9.8M active cases

Your prediction is almost certain.