International COVID-19 Megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

In Italy they're counting anyone who tested positive and then died as a COVID death. But not everyone who died of COVID actually got tested, of course. So there's probably some undercounting going on, but maybe not as much as in other places (hence the very high mortality rate)/

Cheers, they have had a rate between 7-9% so that makes a lot of sense.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Case study on stats from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

South Korea

This country had Corona-virus early starting in earnest mid-February. Their current 'Active Case' growth is entering the final phase. South Korea practices case prediction, spot testing, case tracking and strict isolation procedures.

If we divide the pandemic numbers in South Korea into 4 regions based on growth rate in Active Cases, we have 4 key dates:

• 1. February 17 - Start of reported cases at some nominal value, say 20, to start this curve
• 2. March 3 - Highest Growth
• 3. March 11 - Peak of "Active Cases'. Growth reduction to zero
• 4. March 26 - Highest Decline

Data from South Korea when plotted, as expected, forms a positively skewed bell curve. China was identical. Most 1918 US City Active Case graphs for Spanish Flu were the same.

Australia

This country is an island. 25% of cases from Cruise Ships. 25% of cases from the USA. 25% of cases from Europe. Surprisingly few from China due to an early travel ban.

12% of all cases in Australia are from one Cruise Ship, the Ruby Princess, which the NSW Government said did not present a 'risk' if patients are allowed to disembark. And disembark they did. Their numbers have increased 5 fold since walking off the ship unchecked.

Apart from that, Australia has enjoyed very constrained growth in Corona-virus due to isolation procedures from overseas travellers returning to Australia.

Again, with key dates:

• 1. March 1 - Start of reported case graph at 25
• 2. March 24 - Highest Growth
• 3. April 5 - Predicted Peak of "Active Cases' based on predicted Growth reduction to zero (green line)

So unless we get another outbreak with the German Cruise Ship scenario, we should peak at the end of the first week in April.

In terms of Corona-virus testing, Australia and South Korea share the highest testing rates in the world.



This high testing rate allows much more accurate analysis to be performed. For example, I have never presented 'Active Cases' in Iran due to irregularities in the dataset.

In terms of the growth charts for the largest countries in the world, we have:



UK and USA climbing at fastest growth rate thus far according to the data.

Recoveries are not reported daily in Europe, thus the decline in Italy and Germany will be a little lumpy. I can use 5 point averaging to accommodate, but Excel moves the peak over 3 days to the right.

Good luck to my friends in the USA and Europe. God bless.

[Meclazine for Israel]

.......more worried about the high number of cruise ships with infected passengers still sitting in Australia's waters......

I have never seen a political fuse lit quite like the one attached to the NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian.

Ben Fordham destroyed her live on radio over the explosion of COVID-19 cases since disembarking the ship:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-nsw-premier-gladys-berejiklian-2gb-radio-host-ben-fordham-clash-over-ruby-princess-blame-game/186d456f-c71c-45f6-8a45-cd13718ed1da

As each day passes, her decision to let 150 sick patients off that ship is looking exponentially worse, and now the families of the infected passengers in small country towns around Australia are getting sick.

Today, the media released the emails from the ship and The Australian newspaper will run those emails on Page 1 most likely. 60 Minutes will probably have a stab on Sunday night.

Channel 9 found the emails first allowing disembarkation of passengers with no regard for public safety, but Channel 7 are already on to it whilst it is a hot story this Sunday night:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-wro3YtOJU

• The Dark Music
• The Red Graphics
• The Handsome Reporter
• The Slow-mo Black and White shots
• The Helicopter Flyover

When people start dying from community transmission related to those sick passengers, her interviews together with the NSW Minister for Health will be the most tense discussions on TV in Australia.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest stats have been provided from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Growth in Active Cases for the following countries is provided:


 
United Kingdom




France




Germany




Spain




Italy




USA




Growth Lines Only in Active Cases




USA vs Europe (Spain + Italy + UK + Germany + France)


The growth in UK continues at a faster rate.

The recoveries are now coming in strong from the European mainland which makes the Active Case data more accurate for analysis.

France has had the flattest curve of the European countries in terms of Active Case numbers and has experienced a fall in the last two days in growth.

Italy appears to be past the worst of it and growth has tended downwards since March 21.

Germany has had two strong days in growth, whilst France has had a turnaround in Active Cases after growing strongly 5 days ago.

Spain numbers look particularly encouraging with the 4th successive drop in 'Active Case' growth meaning the worst appears to be behind it in terms of exponential spread. I am confident that the change in Spanish growth (blue line on the Spain graph) will continue to decline further on this graph tomorrow after peaking back on March 26.

US growth is the strongest with 32,000 'New Cases' reported in the last 24 hours.

The interesting thing about mainland Europe (neglecting Swiss, Portugal, Netherlands etc) is that the numbers appear to have peaked in terms of growth rates in Active Cases.

Only the UK continues to grow at a faster rate on its initial curve upwards.

Keep on keepin' on....

[Meclazine for Israel]

The number of new cases is steadily falling each day, and given our high testing rates, that should be close to the truth.

Maybe next week, we will see zero growth, but we need to see a big increase in recoveries above the current rate to get there tomorrow.



Australian Active Cases

[Meclazine for Israel]

Yes,

Thanks for the analysis. Sounds legit.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Quite an update here in Australia - the government is now estimating over 2000 people have already recovered, putting active case numbers at 3372. Very encouraging signs that we might be able to navigate through the first peak, and give ourselves time and options: https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic_0.pdf

Good spot. My graphs to my Facebook friends are going to look flash tomorrow once those numbers are incorporated. They have been freaking out because of the severely low quality of media during the lockdown.

I want the lockdowns to end so my TV stops showing ads with selfie home videos from B grade TV celebrities singing "Oh What a Wonderful World" and others telling us "We are all in this together".

To rub salt in the wounds, we then have C grade TV celebrities pretending to love it with fake smiles.

Make it stop.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Some great news for people going crazy in isolation. You will be let out earlier than expected.

[tinfoilhat]

In terms of the top of the curve for Australia, Italy and Spain, I am saying that this has now been reached. But the 'official' data does not reflect that yet.

Based on growth rates, mortality, new case numbers, Italy and Spain should have seen their peak by now. But I could not figure out why.

Pulaski highlighted to me yesterday that in Australia, 1,800 recoveries were added suddenly to the Government stats. These were apparently from people who were isolating at home after a positive test, but there was no follow up by medical authorities. Certainly not daily, and nowhere near systematic enough to be used on these graphs effectively.

When I back-added these recoveries to the dataset over the last 7 days, it gave Australia a peak on April 2 2020.



That means Australia has already turned the corner and reached the top of the curve before we expected.

Now taking that thinking about recovered cases over to Europe.

Taking the UK, they are simply not reporting recovery data anywhere near what logical thought would assume the recoveries should be with a rate proportional to the new cases 10-14 days previous.

For Italy and Spain, I am seeing the same thing. Italy is simply not reporting recoveries anywhere near an appropriate level, and without those numbers, the curve will never 'peak'.

[statadjustment]

Now, assuming Italy and Spain have not been reporting recoveries from positive test patients isolating at home, I have added 4,000 recoveries per day to the Italian dataset and 3,000 recoveries per day to the Spanish dataset from a point in time 10-14 days following the accelerated diagnosis of new cases.

[/statadjustment]

That provides the following graphs:



Italy (Adjusted) Active Cases




Spain (Adjusted) Active Cases

These look more realistic relative to the mortality and daily new case rates coming in. The lag between new cases and mortality showed a correct lag. But the 'top of the curve' is not matching this 2 week lag until these adjustments are made.

It is unlikely that a country will have a peak in death rate before the peak in 'Active Cases'. Causative logic prescribes that one precedes the other.

They might be completely wrong, but I am assuming that Italy and Spain are not 'tracing' their positive cases from home who are recovering.

If correct, we will see Italy and Spain dump a large number of recoveries in the near future on a single day.

[/tinfoilhat]

[Meclazine for Israel]

I am seeing the same thing. Italy is simply not reporting recoveries anywhere near an appropriate level, and without those numbers, the curve will never 'peak'.

AFAIK Italy report only recoveries from hospitals, Lombardy report both as yesterday 13,426 recoveries from hospitals (as reported also in the national report) and 14,798 recoveries w/o going in hospital

Thanks. Can you get me the total recoveries from Italy nationally please?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

This page is only listing 21,815 as recovered whilst my modelling suggests we should be seeing around 50,000-65,000 recoveries nationally in Italy as of today.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Thanks. Can you get me the total recoveries from Italy nationally please?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

This page is only listing 21,815 as recovered whilst my modelling suggests we should be seeing around 50,000-65,000 recoveries nationally in Italy as of today.

Unlucky i can't, i known the Lombardy number because their press conference was transmitted daily on national TV channels just before of national press conference, i know they transmit also Veneto press conference but the morning i don't see it commonly, i never see other regional press conference

That's OK.

But what you are saying is that Lombardy on it's own has over 27,000 recoveries.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

After looking at the data yesterday, I have modelled the new data using anticipated recoveries from Italy, Spain and Germany.

The modus operandi is this: After 2-3 weeks, a positive diagnosis must end in one of two outcomes: a fatality or a recovery. Assuming deaths are correct, and based on the numbers reported, it is clear that recoveries are not being listed after three weeks at the right volume. I am predicting that we are missing around 92,500 recoveries in the data from Spain, Italy and Germany alone.

Hence I have added in the following recovery rates for these countries 2-3 weeks following a positive test:

• Spain: 3,500 per day (Total: 24,000 missing)
• Italy: 4,000 per day (Total 51,000 missing)
• Germany 3,000 per day (Total 17,500 missing)

Thanks to FrancoAgo who confirmed yesterday that the Lombardy region has actually more recoveries (28,000) alone in their region in reality than what Italy is reporting as a whole (21,000). It makes sense that medical professionals are not visiting people at home to test them if they are free of the virus. Who would want to visit 60 positively tested people per day to conduct a medical assessment on their status?

These additional numbers were added on the dates 2-3 weeks following the date where new cases were reported coming in at a similar rate.

Rather than wait for these countries to suddenly report a large number of recoveries on one day:



Recoveries from Australia

...I will be adding the anticipated rate of recoveries now to get more interpretable information from the 'Active Case' curves.

Once these anticipated recoveries are incorporated into the European data, the growth curves now look like this:



Where these curves dip down through the zero growth line illustrates the date at which the peak of Active Cases is reached.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Just for get your attention, today i see with more attention the data from Lombardy and that from the National, so the "recovered" number w/o hospitalization of Lombardy is propaganda, they call so that positive in home isolation  

I noticed you don't see this

Data is missing from Italy regardless of the reports. Look at the New Cases vs New Recoveries:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

Now look at New Cases vs New Recovies in China:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

The area under the curve should be essentially the same minus mortality.

Missing around 55,000-65,000 recoveries in Italy which should have had an outcome by now.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest growth numbers from Europe and USA looking much better.

USA appears to have turned the corner. Provided they don't get another surge in new cases, it looks as though the growth in 'Active Cases' is coming down on a 3 point weighted average.

All on the same scale, we have:



UK has a longer flatter curve, but continues to grow slowly.




France has one of the higher growth rates, but they also report data in lumps which make it harder to assess, both in terms of new cases and recoveries.

Big surge in new cases today.

(no adjustment to recoveries - will add over the next week)




Germany enjoys a low mortality rate, but still has significant case numbers comparable to Italy and Spain. The low mortality rate has been attributed to the quality of the healthcare system.

(added 18,000 recoveries)




Spain appears to be past the worst of the pandemic and is now on the downward slope. Surprisingly similar curve to Germany, but with a higher mortality rate.

(added 30,000 recoveries)




Italy looks almost identical to Spain, just half a week earlier. Not seeing any recoveries coming through in the data matching the new cases 2-3 weeks previous.

(added 60,000 recoveries)




USA has started to slow in growth numbers over the last 3 days, and has hopefully turned the corner. Mike Pence, a self-confessed non-scientist is confident the US has turned a corner from the data he is looking at.

The US does not release much data in the way of recoveries, so no adjustments can be made until we see that data.

Separating out these growth curves, and looking at the together, we have:



Hopefully the US will drop rapidly now in terms of growth in cases.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Of course some of that drop in active cases is because of deaths.

Of course. Especially in the USA. The formula for adding extra recoveries is:

New positive case numbers 2-3 weeks ago minus Deaths today

I then compare that to see if it matched the actual reported recoveries.

In most cases, it turns out to be limited by the testing rate three weeks ago. It averages out to be about:

Italy: 4-5,000 per day
Spain: 2,500-3,500 per day
Germany: 3-4,000 per day

France is the hardest to model, but I will try this week.

[Meclazine for Israel]

In the latest episode of "China hoodwinking Europe", the millions of respirators Finland ordered from China at a cost many times that compared to normal times have proven to be inadequate for hospital use.

The rest of the world should really demand that China pay compensation for this pandemic.

I wouldn't bother, yup.

More important is the PRC and others consequently restrict wild animal trading and vigorously enforce said ban. These "food" markets, where humans and dead or alive animals are close together for a longer period of time, are the source for a zoonosis like this or the previous SARS pandemic of the early 2000s. Apparently they (and we) didn't learn the lesson from the first SARS virus. Now, despite SARS 1 having a higher mortality, we're poised to go through it again with worse consequences for human life and the global economy. And there remains to be huge potential for another pandemic in the future. If wild animal trading returns the normalcy once this is over, I guarantee we'll be talking about SARS 3 in some years.

I don't blame China. If you overpopulate the planet with too many people, biology has a way of controlling the population. It's called Overshoot.

It happen's in deer, kangaroos, fish and almost any population where a spike in numbers occur.

We have removed our natural predators, are no longer subject to evolution unless you live in remote Africa. We have increased the carrying capacity for humans on this planet 100 fold. We are ripening for a population reduction.

This virus is natures' reminder of what we really are. A biological entity governed by the laws of nature.

If we increase the population by a factor of ten, then it' simply a matter of time until another pandemic rages through our midst.

We are lucky this wasn't asymptomatic Ebola.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest data shows Turkey and Brazil entering a family of large populations suffering from the Corona-virus pandemic according to data from Worldometers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Just going through some of the data issues with each country and what it means for interpretation of the graphs you look at. Each country has it's own technique and although comparing countries is difficult, it can be done loosely if you realise what the variability is within each dataset.

UK

UK has a very high mortality rate based on current numbers. A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.0% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 7,097/33,718)

Given that the actual final mortality rate appears closer to 0.8% worldwide, that would mean that the UK could

• either have 0.9 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

UK has reported less recoveries than deaths. In fact, their overall reporting is very unreliable for interpretation.

France

Data coming in is lumpy in terms of both recoveries and new cases.

A mortality rate based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 18.4% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 10,869/59,105)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France will:

• either have 1.4 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Once recoveries are calculated properly over the next week, it should show the peak of 'Active Cases' has been reached in the next couple of days.

France has had some considerable step changes in their reporting regime for all data including cases, deaths and recoveries.

Germany

Germany has some good mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 3.8% (Total Deaths / Total Cases 7 days ago = 2,349/61,247)

Divide this by the rate of asymptomatic cases in countries like China and Australia, and you get around 0.7-0.8% mortality which matches the global average.

Germany has recently caught up on lagging recovery numbers with 18,000 recoveries reported in the last two days. 3 days ago, I was missing 22,000 recoveries from Germany in the 'Active Case' curve, so this is a positive step in reporting.

Germany has a good dataset for interpretation.

Spain

Spain has a very clean dataset in terms of consistent daily reporting.

The mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 19.7% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,792/74,974)

Again using similar statistics from the UK and France, Spain will:

• either have 1.85 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

My modeling has a deficit of 32,000 recoveries which I have had to add these in to make sense of the Spanish data.

Italy

Italy has had the most media attention as the first country in Europe to have an outbreak, so they were the least prepared.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 21.3% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 17,669/83,049)

Again using similar statistics from the UK, France and Spain, Italy will:

• either have 2.21 Million cases; or
• have only tested people who are sick or elderly; or
• simply have a much higher mortality rate in their population.

or combination thereof.

Based on the data presented, I have included 62,500 recoveries on top of those reported from Italy.

USA

USA has massive numbers to look at.

The current mortality data which based on a 7 day lag produces a cumulative rate of 6.45% (Total Deaths/Total Cases 7 days ago = 14,736/228,404)

Divide that by 5 for asymptomatic cases that never get tested, then we have around 1.3% mortality rate closer to that of Germany, China and Australia.

Now, if 0.8% is the true final rate, that means the US has 350,000 total cases at present.

Overall, this is looking good in terms of testing and reporting, and allows better predictive capacity for future decisions.

When President Trump and Dr Birx refer to testing anomalies in other countries and under-reporting, they are referring to the numbers above.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australia apparently recorded its first day of new cases being below 100 in three weeks. Of course, Easter Long Weekend is upon us, so those numbers may travel up again.

In NSW, our Arts Minister has been ordered back to Sydney, presumably to be sacked, after having been found to be staying in his holiday home in the Central Coast: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-09/nsw-coronavirus-infections-continue-to-drop/12134626

I have a lot of sympathy with him, actually; he apparently went up there weeks ago, before the latest restrictions were put in place. Surely they'd want him to stay put for now?

Well they'd be better to sack the Health Minister Hazzard rather than sack him.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Boris Johnson is out of intensive care and has been transferred to a different service within the hospital for monitoring

Good news,

Some latest plots from the UK and France which I have upgraded to include predicted growth.

The model is based on amplitude of the initial responses from data from China, South Korea, Australia, Italy and Spain and the time periods between maximum growth and maximum Active cases.

This allows a positively skewed bell curve to be calculated for other countries based on best fit.

The results are:

UK



Peak Active Cases and the associated date will change slightly when new data comes in, but the model updates itself daily. UK has the least predictable situation as it has yet to slow down. Germany, Italy and Spain should show a clearer picture.


France



France has a higher predicted peak in Active Cases but should be out of the woods earlier.

These models can change, and obviously will change as new data comes in. For example, the USA has a highly accelerated growth curve, so those cases will resolve to an outcome just as fast. Hence a steeper recovery is predicted.

In terms of growth alone, this is something that is starting to really take shape:



These growth curves are real key to understanding how this virus will play out over time.

Will make some Germany, Spain and USA predictive plots tomorrow (and Australian).

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Here are some predictive graphs from the 'Active Case' work I have been doing.

Basically, the solid line is data. The dashed line is hypothetical.

Germany



Germany on the smooth path down. 24,500 recoveries added to make this curve.


Spain



I have added 40,000 recoveries to the Spanish dataset to make this curve.


Italy



I have added 65,000 recoveries to the Italian dataset to make this curve.


USA



This one is the hardest to predict as the growth continues in one area of the country whilst receding in others. Overall the growth continues upwards, albeit at a flatter pace.

No recoveries added to this dataset.

As time progresses, the new data added will replace and influence the predicted decay curve on the right. The data 'updates' the model so to speak.

In terms of Growth of Active Cases, when all plotted on the same graph, we get:



The point at which growth drops through zero is the 'predicted' date of the peak of the curve.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Just updating today's data with new predictive graphs. Sunday is pretty quiet, so I will do it again on Monday.

UK



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 77,072 Active Cases on April 18

First things first. I have added 8,200 recoveries to the UK data.

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

What does this say about the reported UK data?

It says the numbers are most likely missing something. It is highly unlikely that 50% of a normal population of cases tested on March 28 have died according to the data reported.

Hence the UK dataset needs to be looked at more carefully over time. My suspicion is that if the mortality numbers are correct, then:

• the initial reported cases are under-representative of wider community spread; and
• they are only testing really sick people.

France



April 11 UK Active Case Curve - Predicted peak of 101,671 Active Cases on April 19

Same technique as above.  

Total Cases listed on 28 March = 37,575
Recoveries listed today = 26,391
Deaths between 28 March and now = 13,832 - 2,314 = 11,518

Recoveries plus Deaths =  37,900

Hence the French dataset is pretty close to being straight, so no need to add any recoveries in this case.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I looked at the 'Total Cases' 14 days ago on 28 March 2020 which was 17,089. Since then, these cases have either recovered or died. Given that 8,856 patients have died since 28 March, I have added the difference (8,200) as recoveries.

afaik the recovery time is estimated from 2 weeks to 6 weeks, so take the minimum heavy influence the data and the analysis

WHO have said : "Using available preliminary data, the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks."

That is a mean which works well on large datasets.

Just post your analysis of what is going on. I cant spend time to constantly refute claims like these. This is the third time you have attempted some minor contrarian point of order which in the scheme of the discussion is meaningless.

Just write your version of events as you see it with a fresh perspective.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

As we climb through 2 Million Total Cases worldwide, keep in mind that a lot of those people have now recovered. The number of Active Cases is significantly less.

Based on the German research recently quoted by Russian Bear and Deadoman, the stats are pretty encouraging for 66-75% of the population to develop antibodies without getting sick, or having mild symptoms without any long term effects.

My estimate based on this research for people who have developed anti-bodies to the virus would be between 20-40 Million people.

Some graphs coming up with latest predictions.

UK



UK 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 83,603 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 8,700


France



France 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 96,942 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 0


Germany



Germany 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 8,100


Spain



Spain 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 75,778 – April 7
Recoveries added to curve – 13,000


Italy



Italy 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 67,880 – March 29
Recoveries added to curve – 66,400

Clearly past the worst of it, Italy should calm down now in terms of the number of Active Cases. First in to the curve, most likely, first out.


USA



USA 12 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 474,723 – April 17
Recoveries added to curve – 92,000

USA curve reduced thanks to the addition of recoveries. Looks to be past the top of peak growth and now heading to peak Active cases in 4-5 days time.

Will most likely get a few bumps on the way down as evidenced by the same in the European countries listed.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Chinese economic numbers seem to indicate that, at least there, a significantly faster recovery than expected is taking place, raising hopes that the same will go for Europe as we start opening up.

China: March, compared to the same month last year
Exports: -6.6% (Expectations by Economists per Reuters: At least -13%)
Imports: -0.9% (Expected: -9.5%)

China has (unlike Europe and NA) held off from implementing a massive government stimulus, or a wage subsidy system, so Domestic Consumption kept the pace regardless. And of course China was able to restart the economy significantly faster than Europe, not to mention the US, will. And Exports will be hit in April harder as those Economies tank.

Speaking of Stimulus, the Italian Government has refused the 39 Billion Euro Loans package that was negotiated. Five Stars apparently threatened to blow up the Coalition otherwise. Complete Idiots. Why would they say no to a 39 billion€ credit, with low interest and no conditions after working for low interest credits with no conditions for weeks? And doing it without even Consulting their Allies Sanchez and Macron? Populism has Italy by the balls and the entire country will suffer because of it.

Well thanks for the daily dose of communist propaganda. Anyone whose been to China knows it’s a horrible place. Seems way poorer than Vietnam despite having 4x the per capita gdp. I’m pretty sure they inflate a lot of the their metrics. Like by not counting any infant mortality to boost their life expectancy.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Australian numbers continue to decline. We are looking better than South Korea.

We have definitely benefited from an extended hot summer period into March/April.



Australian Active Cases - Peak was April 3 with 3491

370 recoveries added to chart.

With International travel out for the rest of the year, we should be ready to rock back into action in June. Scott Morrison will follow Donald Trumps lead for lifting any restrictions. The Australian Prime Minister followed his decisions on the way into the curve.

Will post up USA and Europe tomorrow morning (Australian time).

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

Latest numbers from Europe and USA

UK



UK 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 86,490 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 10,400


France



France 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,212,942 – April 12
Recoveries added to curve – 5,500

France curve has new recoveries added which lowers the total slightly.


Germany



Germany 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 10,000


Spain



Spain 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 76,689 – April 7
Recoveries added to curve – 18,500


Italy



Italy 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,480 – March 29
Recoveries added to curve – 73,400


USA



USA 14 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,019 – April 19
Recoveries added to curve – 105,000

USA should start showing signs of lowering in Active Cases.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.