International COVID-19 Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Italy they're counting anyone who tested positive and then died as a COVID death. But not everyone who died of COVID actually got tested, of course. So there's probably some undercounting going on, but maybe not as much as in other places (hence the very high mortality rate).

[parochial boy]

Switzerland is counting every COVID-19 related death, regardless of whether it was in a hospital, care home, or at home. Detailed data is being reported by the cantons individually though, which can make numbers seem a bit weird if one of the big ones is a bit behind, or not using the same methodology as the others.

On another note, back to the theme of "are China's numbers accurate?". It's interesting that right now, we have a number of European countries that are probably round about their peak: Italy; probably also Germany, Austria, Switzerland; maybe Belgium; hopefully Spain. All these countries are currently reporting data that jumps around day-to-day - individual days can seem better or worse than the previous, but the overall trend is a sort of straight line increase, or even a slow decline in case numbers and, slightly later on, deaths.

Compare to China, which recorded an almost perfect curve of increasing case numbers followed by a perfectly smooth, day-by-day consistent decline in cases down to almost zero. And this is despite changing their reporting methodology 7 times in the intervening period.

Suspicious much?

[Meclazine for Israel]

In Italy they're counting anyone who tested positive and then died as a COVID death. But not everyone who died of COVID actually got tested, of course. So there's probably some undercounting going on, but maybe not as much as in other places (hence the very high mortality rate)/

Cheers, they have had a rate between 7-9% so that makes a lot of sense.

[Lechasseur]

Switzerland is counting every COVID-19 related death, regardless of whether it was in a hospital, care home, or at home. Detailed data is being reported by the cantons individually though, which can make numbers seem a bit weird if one of the big ones is a bit behind, or not using the same methodology as the others.

On another note, back to the theme of "are China's numbers accurate?". It's interesting that right now, we have a number of European countries that are probably round about their peak: Italy; probably also Germany, Austria, Switzerland; maybe Belgium; hopefully Spain. All these countries are currently reporting data that jumps around day-to-day - individual days can seem better or worse than the previous, but the overall trend is a sort of straight line increase, or even a slow decline in case numbers and, slightly later on, deaths.

Compare to China, which recorded an almost perfect curve of increasing case numbers followed by a perfectly smooth, day-by-day consistent decline in cases down to almost zero. And this is despite changing their reporting methodology 7 times in the intervening period.

Suspicious much?

When do you think France's peak will be?

I did notice France does not appear on your list while virtually every other european country does

[parochial boy]

Switzerland is counting every COVID-19 related death, regardless of whether it was in a hospital, care home, or at home. Detailed data is being reported by the cantons individually though, which can make numbers seem a bit weird if one of the big ones is a bit behind, or not using the same methodology as the others.

On another note, back to the theme of "are China's numbers accurate?". It's interesting that right now, we have a number of European countries that are probably round about their peak: Italy; probably also Germany, Austria, Switzerland; maybe Belgium; hopefully Spain. All these countries are currently reporting data that jumps around day-to-day - individual days can seem better or worse than the previous, but the overall trend is a sort of straight line increase, or even a slow decline in case numbers and, slightly later on, deaths.

Compare to China, which recorded an almost perfect curve of increasing case numbers followed by a perfectly smooth, day-by-day consistent decline in cases down to almost zero. And this is despite changing their reporting methodology 7 times in the intervening period.

Suspicious much?

When do you think France's peak will be?

I did notice France does not appear on your list while virtually every other european country does

No idea, I'm just going with what media/government officials seem to be insinuating. France seems to have had few times where it looks like things are stabilising before another surge in cases. I've nowhere near enough knowledge or expertise to be able to judge what is going on there - like that big surge on Tuesday, could just be a degree of catch up with the EHPAD situation?

The UK's case numbers are still growing pretty rapidly. And the Netherlands data looks iffy, not many cases but lots of deaths - and I haven't heard anything about them having ICU capacity issues like has been the case in the other countries with higher seeming death rates.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Uh oh.

The government just relaxed the restrictions. First off, the hunting parties are exempted. PiS is well known for having a strong hunting lobby. At one point they even passed a law that allowed you to hunt in someone's private forrest, and said person not only couldn't complain, but also be physically present at the time. This particular law was rescinded since, but says a lot about their mindset. Second, you the mass can now be attended by up to 50 people because, you know, muh Easter.

[parochial boy]

Not sure if this has been getting coverage elsewhere - but there has been talk about this new cross European effort to develop a mobile app that could help end slow transmission, and eventually even help end the lockdowns and restore some semblance of normality. Apparently, it would allow people to report whether they were experiencing Covid symptoms, and would anonymously alert anyone who had been in contact with them over the last X number of days (based Bluetooth connections), who would then be able to self-isolate as necessary.

The thing is called PEPP-PT, is apparently GDPR compliant, and would be aimed to be released by the end of next week.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh, do I smell a disappearing majority?

Gowin received an ultimatum from PiS to adhere to the line (presidential election held as scheluded) or be sacked, which would inevitably mean the government losing its' slender majority. So far Gowin essentially said "bite me".

Naturally the opposition wouldn't be able to form a government on their own (no one is allying with the Confederacy, apart from other factors), and there's no interest on either side to dissolve the Sejm, so it would mean PiS running a minority government.

[brucejoel99]

Oh, do I smell a disappearing majority?

Gowin received an ultimatum from PiS to adhere to the line (presidential election held as scheluded) or be sacked, which would inevitably mean the government losing its' slender majority. So far Gowin essentially said "bite me".

Naturally the opposition wouldn't be able to form a government on their own (no one is allying with the Confederacy, apart from other factors), and there's no interest on either side to dissolve the Sejm, so it would mean PiS running a minority government.

What would that be like?

[CumbrianLefty]

569 virus related deaths in the UK yesterday - up "only" six from yesterday's figure but tbh some of us were hoping for a drop after the previous big jump. New cases also slightly down, though.

[Tender Branson]

Only 4% more cases yesterday, despite testing capacity now at over 30.000 per day.

Deaths „only“ up by 10.

The number of people hospitalized has fallen for the first time.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh, do I smell a disappearing majority?

Gowin received an ultimatum from PiS to adhere to the line (presidential election held as scheluded) or be sacked, which would inevitably mean the government losing its' slender majority. So far Gowin essentially said "bite me".

Naturally the opposition wouldn't be able to form a government on their own (no one is allying with the Confederacy, apart from other factors), and there's no interest on either side to dissolve the Sejm, so it would mean PiS running a minority government.

What would that be like?

They would have to legislate on case-to-case basis, without the possibility of just steamrolling stuff through the Sejm in the middle of the night (nightime sessions are their favourite way of passing anything remotely controversial), seeking additional support from other parties, which for most stuff should be possible.

Unless you'll have a successfull vote of no confidence (something, as I mentioned, isn't likely during the pandemic), or Sejm votes to dissolve itself (again, very unlikely at the present time), the government stays in place, but with a limited ability to steamroll their legislative agenda.

The combined opposition can't put together a working majority, because even with PO, the Left and PSL somehow managing to settle their differences (something that was only barely accomplished for the purpose of organizing the Senate) still lacks votes, and including the Confederacy is impossible. Even a minority opposition-led government isn't feasible.

A notion of a "national government" to deal with the crisis isn't entertained by anybody, even jokingly, for PO and PiS forming one (even with the exclusion of other parties) would be like Schumer and McConnell somehow agreeing to share power and institute a joint agenda.

tl;dr: we're stuck with the current government, but there's now a possibility for some checks to its' power.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Looks like the Ministry of Health may be deliberately lowering the death rate. We've been hearing that hospitals are reporting deaths from the virus, but the ministry is refusing to include them into official figures, claiming "these people died from other conditions". The official figure at this moment is 45 vs. 47 recoveries. With limited testing being done the number is likely higher anyway.

Reminds me of a sudden increase in deaths from heart attack in Russia

[Tender Branson]

I did my first masked grocery shopping today, which is now mandatory here.

Very weird, hot and my glasses went misty. But everyone was wearing one.

I definitely need another mask in the future than the one I have now ... I’ll probably grab one of those medical masks that are distributed for free outside the supermarket, instead my construction worker dust mask.

[kelestian]

More than 3000 cases, but so far only 20 deaths, thank God.

Meanwhile, total bloodbath for economy. About 50% of businesses expected to bankrupt in coming weeks. Government help is too little to late, especially since we are not in the State of Emergency, but in "total month-long vacation". Entrepteneurs must pay full salaries, but they have basically no income to do that.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

More on the highly unreliable data reporting in real time. Better look at the actual toll.

Interested what this looks like for Germany if anyone's seen a graphic.

https://twitter.com/J_CD_T/status/1245739661449977867?s=19

[Landslide Lyndon]

In Greece 82% of the voters approve the handling of the Coronavirus crisis by the government.
Mitsotakis and ND score their highest ratings ever, they beat SYRIZA by 2 to 1.
Thankfully things are going smoothly and the curve has been more of less flattened.

[Tirnam]

In France
New deaths in hospital: 471 (4503 in total)
New hospitalizations: 1607 (lowest since March 26)
New case in intensive care: 382 (also down)

At least 884 suspected deaths from Covid-19 in nursing homes. That number is still preliminary.

[President Johnson]

Worldwide number of infections as crossed one million now (deaths and receovered included).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Worldwide number of infections as crossed one million now (deaths and receovered included).

...with no end in sight... Dreadful is the only word for this.

No panicking in this thread.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Doubling rate of the virus is now somewhere between eight and ten days in Germany. Keeps getting better and I how hope this means that the harshest of the restrictions will be lifted on April 20 (to expect that all restrictions will be lifted then is unrealistic though). The state of Berlin already has decided to lift some very minor restrictions today. While you still can't meet more than one other person in public, it is now allowed to sit on park benches and on lawns again - provided that you keep a legally prescribed minimum distance to other people - and you don't need to carry an ID with you any longer. YAY, freedom!

[Meclazine for Israel]

Case study on stats from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

South Korea

This country had Corona-virus early starting in earnest mid-February. Their current 'Active Case' growth is entering the final phase. South Korea practices case prediction, spot testing, case tracking and strict isolation procedures.

If we divide the pandemic numbers in South Korea into 4 regions based on growth rate in Active Cases, we have 4 key dates:

• 1. February 17 - Start of reported cases at some nominal value, say 20, to start this curve
• 2. March 3 - Highest Growth
• 3. March 11 - Peak of "Active Cases'. Growth reduction to zero
• 4. March 26 - Highest Decline

Data from South Korea when plotted, as expected, forms a positively skewed bell curve. China was identical. Most 1918 US City Active Case graphs for Spanish Flu were the same.

Australia

This country is an island. 25% of cases from Cruise Ships. 25% of cases from the USA. 25% of cases from Europe. Surprisingly few from China due to an early travel ban.

12% of all cases in Australia are from one Cruise Ship, the Ruby Princess, which the NSW Government said did not present a 'risk' if patients are allowed to disembark. And disembark they did. Their numbers have increased 5 fold since walking off the ship unchecked.

Apart from that, Australia has enjoyed very constrained growth in Corona-virus due to isolation procedures from overseas travellers returning to Australia.

Again, with key dates:

• 1. March 1 - Start of reported case graph at 25
• 2. March 24 - Highest Growth
• 3. April 5 - Predicted Peak of "Active Cases' based on predicted Growth reduction to zero (green line)

So unless we get another outbreak with the German Cruise Ship scenario, we should peak at the end of the first week in April.

In terms of Corona-virus testing, Australia and South Korea share the highest testing rates in the world.



This high testing rate allows much more accurate analysis to be performed. For example, I have never presented 'Active Cases' in Iran due to irregularities in the dataset.

In terms of the growth charts for the largest countries in the world, we have:



UK and USA climbing at fastest growth rate thus far according to the data.

Recoveries are not reported daily in Europe, thus the decline in Italy and Germany will be a little lumpy. I can use 5 point averaging to accommodate, but Excel moves the peak over 3 days to the right.

Good luck to my friends in the USA and Europe. God bless.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1245856634615631872

Well then.

I am sure this is the case in many other countries, there just was not enough early testing to detect many of the first cases that started it spreading in various places around the world.

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1245856634615631872

Well then.

I am sure this is the case in many other countries, there just was not enough early testing to detect many of the first cases that started it spreading in various places around the world.

Wouldn't be surprised if what people considered the "bad flu" that was going around earlier this year was actually coronavirus.

[Pulaski]

Case study on stats from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


Australia

This country is an island. 25% of cases from Cruise Ships. 25% of cases from the USA. 25% of cases from Europe. Surprisingly few from China due to an early travel ban.

12% of all cases in Australia are from one Cruise Ship, the Ruby Princess, which the NSW Government said did not present a 'risk' if patients are allowed to disembark. And disembark they did. Their numbers have increased 5 fold since walking off the ship unchecked.

Apart from that, Australia has enjoyed very constrained growth in Corona-virus due to isolation procedures from overseas travellers returning to Australia.

Again, with key dates:

• 1. March 1 - Start of reported case graph at 25
• 2. March 24 - Highest Growth
• 3. April 5 - Predicted Peak of "Active Cases' based on predicted Growth reduction to zero (green line)

So unless we get another outbreak with the German Cruise Ship scenario, we should peak at the end of the first week in April.

Federal and state governments here are more worried now about the increase in community transmission, but they're still in double or very low triple figures each day. I'd be more worried about the high number of cruise ships with infected passengers still sitting in Australia's waters.

Regardless, the pattern still seems to be holding for Australia at this present time: steady numbers and more opportunity to prepare for the surge. We just might get lucky here.