NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[dax00]

There was a tie in Reno on MSNBC....

Buttigieg got a 3, Bernie pulled a 2 of clubs... so of course Buttigieg wins randomly.

Of course he does.

2 of clubs is literally worst card in the deck *facepalm*

[dax00]

Does anyone know if the early votes are already included in those NYT numbers ?

All the official numbers coming out have early votes factored in. Otherwise, it would have been impossible to do any math.

[dax00]

Lead up to 34.9% with 2.24% of precincts reporting
I know it won't stay this lopsided, but still...

[dax00]

To be fair, the process of including all early votes into this, then making sure all the realignments are done correctly, is much more involved than what was done in Iowa. Big picture: simple math, involved process. Requires people who can follow instructions well. I still trust Nevada over Iowa in this regard.

[dax00]

As long as incorrect math gets fixed... unlike in a certain Midwest state.

[dax00]

First findings of wonky math (per NYT map)

Clark-5003
Steyer 2 2 2
Sanders 2 2 1
Liz 1 1 1
Tulsi 1 0 1
Delaney 0 1 0
Based off those vote totals, Delaney should have gotten a CCD instead of Tulsi.

Clark-5036
Sanders 6 7 6
Biden 4 7 4
Pete 2 3 3

[dax00]

Clark-5545 (Chinatown)
Sanders 39 10
Pete 19 7
Biden 19 5

[dax00]

With 5/5 precincts reporting, Bernie Sanders has won Esmeralda County. Sanders 11, Pete 4, Biden 2, Warren 2.

[dax00]

Biden's vote share most likely will fall somewhat over time. Current results on CNN is somewhat Clark County heavy and as that gets normalized the weak Biden levels of support outside of Clark County will drag down his vote share.  He is still likely to be ahead of Buttigieg overall at the end of the day.

The NYT page has no results from Washoe County. I don't know what that means for individual candidate support (Biden, Pete, etc.), but nothing from the second most populated county in the state means the current results aren't representative of what the final results will likely be.

Clark has like 5 times more people than Washoe

[dax00]

I lived in Vegas for 5 years. I don't need to be explained to which minority groups live where.

[dax00]

Nevada has, despite the more complicated procedure, proven to be more transparent and competent than Iowa. And, unlike in Iowa, the vote here does not appear to be rigged. So that's good.

Main question now is whether Pete can stay above the 15% statewide threshold.

[dax00]

270 precincts left in Washoe, where Pete has so far gotten 17.4% of CCDs. 640 precincts left in Clark, where Pete has so far gotten 13.6% of CCDs. Assuming precincts of equal size (a bad assumption, but for the sake of math...), that makes: (270*17.4+640*13.6)/(270+640)= 14.73%. The average precinct in Washoe so far has yielded 4.658 CCDs, compared to 9.045 in Clark, which means he is in serious danger of not making statewide viability, after averaging with his current 15.4%

[dax00]

So, I did the math. Based off of extrapolations with fair assumptions, my prediction for Pete's final statewide total is 14.82%

[dax00]

I revise my prediction based off a few factors I just considered. New prediction for Pete statewide is 14.91%

[dax00]

I don't believe it. 0513 in the morning Pacific time, and more results come in. Up to 1266 precincts

Bernie 46.04%
Biden 19.55%
Pete 15.32%
Warren 10.10%
Amy 4.76%
Steyer 4.05%

[dax00]

Well, there was this.
https://twitter.com/merica/status/1231602254219792384?s=20

[dax00]

Sure, I support a recanvass, after 100% of precincts report. What's important now is to quickly get all the results, so candidates are able to address all of the mistakes at once.

[dax00]

Pete has no chance at viability statewide. The weight of Clark county far exceeds that of Washoe et cetera. I expect his statewide percentage to drop even further.

[dax00]

Pete on 1772 CCD. State wide viability is currently at 1950 CCD, so he is at -178 CCDs from the threshold.

Washoe has 107 precincts left. Precincts in Washoe have averaged 3.683 CCDs. At his current percentage of 17.34% in Washoe, that nets...
107*3.683*0.0234= 9.2 CCDs, far short of the 178 required. The other small counties help, but still fall well short.

There are still 79 precincts to report in Clark county. The average for each precinct has been 8.682 CCDs. At 11.79%, that extrapolates to...
79*8.682*-0.0321= -22 CCDs

You see how impossible this is

[dax00]

I'm very amused by Steyer being ahead in Mineral County.  Anyone know how many precincts still have to report there?

3 precincts to report from Mineral. I also would be amused if Steyer manages to win there.

[dax00]

Bernie would need to make up 113 CCDs to win that 25th state delegate. I'm gonna call the task impossible. Safe to lock in the delegate count at 24-9-3

[dax00]

Mineral County (12/12)
Steyer 16
Buttigieg 15
Sanders 13
Warren 5
Biden 4
Klobuchar 3

STEYERMENTUM!

[dax00]

Warren is 25 CCDs shy of viability in CD2.
Sanders is 42 CCDs shy of taking a PLEO away from Biden.