2004
To Bush--Alabama
To Kerry--Vermont
Gore actually broke 40% in Alabama, and won a few counties in the northwestern part of the state which Kerry and Obama both lost. Presumably these areas had a pattern of whites voting Democratic which has since reversed like many other areas of the South. On the other hand Gore underperformed slightly in Vermont partly due to Nader - and until Clinton, Vermont had a strong tradition of voting Republican which perhaps influenced the '00 result until they realized how vehemently they disagreed with the outcome of a Bush administration...
2000
To Bush--Wyoming, Arkansas, Montana
To Gore--Maryland
Arkansas, obviously, is due to the home state effect. Gore still came within five points there and won two of the four congressional districts which makes the 08 result all the more surprising. Wyoming and Montana presumably were reacting to the environmental policies of the Clinton administration - on top of which a small bump for Cheney in Wyoming would be expected. Maryland and D.C. were the only states to swing Democratic at all in 2000 - this probably being partially explained by the continued moving of urban areas to the Democrats. Most counties that swung Democratic in 2000 were densely populated, and the Baltimore/DC areas would be no exception. Prince George's County, MD voted the most Democratic it had ever voted in 2000 - then again in 2004, and 2008.
1996
To Dole--Kansas, Alaska, Wyoming
To Clinton--New Jersey
Not many comments here except that I'm a bit surprised that Dole didn't manage to break 50% in Wyoming, though Clinton did campaign there in 1992 so he may have overperformed for a Democrat (even with Perot on the ballot, Clinton in 96 beat the subsequent results for Gore, Kerry, and Obama quite easily). Kansas was Dole's home state; New Jersey, I'd have to look closer at. Clinton only won it by two points in the 92 election, and huge swings towards Clinton were not unique to New Jersey in the Northeast.
1992
To Bush--Iowa
To Clinton--Arkansas, New Hampshire
NH went from R+37 in 1984, R+26 in 1988, and D+1 in 1992.
Dukakis beat Bush by just over ten points in Iowa in 1988, so I'd agree with Lewis on that one.
1984
To Reagan--Georgia, South Carolina
To Mondale--District of Columbia, North Dakota
Georgia apparently did not share the fondness it had for Jimmy Carter with Mr. Mondale. Carter won SC quite handily in 1976, and like most Southern states Reagan's victory there four years later was hardly decisive. I expect that the GOP swing in the South in 1984 was not limited to GA and SC (AR would be another good one, I expect).
1980
To Reagan--North Dakota
To Carter--Vermont
The best explanation I have been able to come up with for Vermont was that Anderson took votes from more people who otherwise would have voted for Reagan - people who today would consider themselves Democrats.
1976
To Ford--Alaska, Massachusetts
To Carter--Georgia, Arkansas
MA went from D+9 to D+15 from 1972 to 1976. Obviously, being the only state that voted for the Democrats previously, in an election where the entire nation swung heavily Democratic, there was only so much room for MA to swing.
Carter performed nearly as well in Arkansas as he did in Georgia, including an impressive near-sweep of the state's counties. They were the only states where he broke 60% (one thing I find particularly noteworthy about 1976 was the relative closeness spread across each state; similarly, Ford only broke 60% in one state, Utah).
1968
To Nixon--Vermont
To Humphrey (away from Nixon is probably more accurate)--Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, South Carolina
1964 was a complete fluke as far as states like Vermont, New Hampshire, etc. are concerned. Given their partisan affiliations of the time, gigantic swings to Nixon are not unexpected.
