Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/16/world/europe/putin-modi-war-ukraine.html

On the one hand:

“In a news conference Friday after the summit of Asian leaders, Mr. Putin described recent Russian cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure as “warning strikes” that could portend an even more vicious campaign.

On the other hand:

“At the same time — apparently mindful of the unease among key partners like China and India — Mr. Putin insisted that he was ready for talks without naming any preconditions and that his war aims did not necessarily extend to all of Ukraine. … He said that the “main goal” of his invasion was limited to capturing the Donbas — the eastern Ukrainian region where Russia has recognized as independent two Kremlin-backed statelets but where Ukraine still controls several key cities and towns.
…
‘Yet Mr. Putin has repeatedly warned that Russia’s assault could still intensify — a threat now weighing on American officials, who believe Mr. Putin could increase the size of Russia’s forces deployed to Ukraine or could mount attacks against the NATO countries providing Ukraine with arms. The officials also say Russia could mount a new push in Ukraine’s east or south, or step up a campaign to target the Ukrainian leadership.”

What happens if Russia just starts firebombing Ukrainian cities to maximize the body count? Hopefully Russia is running out of missiles to do that. Putin is also unhappy with Ukraine blowing up stuff in Crimea. He does not like symmetrical wars.

If he is desperate enough, do you think he might attempt to turn the ZNP into a dirty bomb? I’m guessing the chances are very low for that but they are not 0. That would put the US and NATO into a corner. Risk the end of our current society, or lose all international legitimacy to people like Putin. What would be a response that would avoid those two things?

If there is one line that NATO members, and indeed the whole world as well will not allow Putin (or indeed any country) to cross without military reprisals, it is the line of nuclear terrorism. Any state which would use nuclear weapons (especially in the manner described above) would a total rouge state that no country would want to have anything to do with, and every country would want to see its leadership removed. However, that doesn't mean that reprisal requires direct military intervention either. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and if Russia did take the course of nuclear terrorism, everyone in the Russian government should take steps to not eat or drink anything they haven't prepared with their own hands, and to lock themselves inside some impenetrable bunker somewhere, or else.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Beyond the political issues the mobilization will case there is also the issue of who the hell would train the new recruits as all of Russia’s best officers are in Ukraine already

Also who would supply them, and what would they be supplied with should they ever reach the front lines?

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheNationalNews/status/1573371234687008768

Can we ...do that?

Well, the UN charter states that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics should be the permanent member of the Council. It says nothing of the Russian Federation (of course it also mentions the ROC and not the PRC as well). So really, any former Soviet member state could claim the USSR seat on the Security Council.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Elon Musk proposes:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000?s=20&t=CwDCCBxJcJq5j...

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576973049277992974?s=20&t=CwDCCBxJcJq5j...

Known idiot makes idiotic comments, news at 11:00.

[nicholas.slaydon]

What's worse than mobilisation? The Russian government offers some answers:

https://twitter.com/vidtranslator/status/1578108073306165261
America: a terrifying place where lesbians surround you, vegetarians regulate plane food, and black people jump toilet queues. Better to die in the Donbas than walk into hell itself.

Edit: I posted the auto-translated version instead.

Wow, the Russian government really must just be ran by a bunch of terminally online, brain fried boomers. That is just an embarrassing attempt at anti American propaganda.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

It pains me to say this, but conceding/recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in exchange for the return of all other Crimean land and all of their many thousands of kidnapped citizens might be a way to achieve peace once the Ukraine has beaten Russia out of the other occupied portions of the country. It's enough to save Putin enough face to declare the victory with their concession on Ukraine and not suffer a coup. Not that I don't wish to see him rotting in hell, I just wish to see Ukraine unconquered and at peace.

Why are people so concerned with allowing a brutal dictator to "save face"! This is a war that he and his political/military advisors decided on, and they must face the consequences of their actions. If we allow  Russia to "save face" and "declare victory", we might as well just invite another such war. If any tin pot dictator can invade their neighbor, and made bold, blackmailing threats, and have all those that could stop their war of aggression kowtow and call for "negotiated settlements" and advocating for peace over war, we might as well just give them all a green light to do the same as Putin. The only way that Ukraine will ever have peace from Russia is if Russia is not permitted to "save face" or "declare victory", but rather Ukraine will only have a lasting peace if Russia is totally and utterly defeated, with Russia leaving all of Ukrainian territory.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Every Russian missile used in these attacks is one not being used on the actual battlefield. The Russians do not have the capacity to do mass attacks on both.

This is most certainly true. Their stocks of Kalibrs and Iskanders are very limited (I will avoid repeating "the Russians are running out", since we've been hearing that since March)

But Iran's weapons complicate the issue somewhat when it comes to static targets, especially if they actually start supplying cruise missiles along with their cheap drone arsenal.

Again, the West cannot do much here, due to the already maxxed out US sanctions on Iran. This is one of the issues where Biden pursued a incomprehensibly stupid policy.

What was the policy you think Biden should have pursued to prevent Iran from selling weapons to Russia lol

Reversed the Trump policy on the nuclear deal, among other things. Iran isn’t the only country which could have supplied Russia with useful weapons, but there are few others under such diplomatic, economic and military pressure.

This literally makes zero sense because (A) the Biden administration hasn't actually reversed any tangible Trump policy, all they've done is try and restart negotiations (which haven't gone anywhere), and (B) even under the full sanctions -- which, I repeat, are what they're under now -- Iran wouldn't be prevented at all from selling weapons to Russia.

If Trump was president there wouldn't have been a war in the first place. Him and them had respect for each other.

if Trump was president, Putin would've invaded Ukraine, Trump would have justified and defended it, Ukraine would receive zero aid from America and we'd probably share intel with Putin, meanwhile most of Europe would still be on Ukraine's side but without American leadership they'd be disorganized and ineffective.  So the divide between America and Europe would widen further, the residents of Kiev would be exported to Siberia and their children kidnapped and sold to wealthy Russian families, and Putin would be emboldened to start planning his attacks on other nearby states as he continues trying to rebuild the USSR, which for some reason you fully support.

I am not so sure about that. By all accounts Trump was very susceptible to influence, especially from generals, and I would find it hard to believe that they wouldn't push Trump as hard as possible to get him to see things their way (and I'm not sure they would have to try very hard). However, if Trump were in office he would at least publicly be sending very mixed signals, and non-publicly would likely not be providing as much aid to Ukraine. However, to go as far as to say that he would just roll over and do nothing, I think ignores how susceptible to influence Trump was in office (particularly on foreign policy/military matters).

[nicholas.slaydon]

Yes, I'm sure Chechens thought they were getting a very good deal when their cities were being leveled to the ground by Putin. Truly an enviable deal there.

And being thrust into the hands of one of the greatest human rights abusers on the planet. Oh yes, Putin has treated the Chechens with a truly benevolent hand.

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1585678376462843907?s=20&t=huHIV4THhaF6FMNMxBvQhw
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1585678389289041920?s=20&t=huHIV4THhaF6FMNMxBvQhw

"Joined in 2016 to defend her homeland from Russian aggression"

Oh, by shelling Donetsk then?

SirWoodbury once again exposed as a Russian propagandist hack.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Yeah, the Wapo article says it is all about PR, rather than substance and I agree. There will never be a  peace agreement unless and until Putin gets desperate. In the meantime he thinks he can just hold on, until public opinion in the West snaps. The West on the other hand hopes continual progress in rolling Russia back will help to anneal the will to bear the burden to stand up and thwart the existential threat.

I wonder if there is any way to induce China to shut the war down short of handing them Taiwan.

After a peace agreement, Putin will violate the agreement and will invade Ukraine in 5-10 years. Putin wants to wipe out Ukraine and annex the whole country.

The only way to end the war sooner is to send Ukraine heavy weapons like Leopard 2 tanks and fighter jets. The only thing Putin understands respects is force, not diplomacy.

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1593645321070026754?s=20&t=WUhfYl...

And we still don't have reliable Amtrak service between the Bay Area and Los Angeles and there is *no* service between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. Whenever I see stories like this it reminds me how terrible public transit is in this country.

This also reminds me of a tweet that I read a couple of months ago saying that the Kyiv metro was running a slower schedule with trains ran every 7-8 minutes while I was waiting 30+ minutes for a train at the Berkeley BART station.

30 minutes isn't so bad considering the Metrolink trains here in Southern California only run every hour, even during the busiest times of day. God I wish we had better public transit in the US, especially better commercial trains, the rest of the world really puts us to shame.

[nicholas.slaydon]

This article discusses the prospects of Ukraine taking back Crimea. The prospects appear grim to me, particular the bit that the bulk of the population still there wants to be Russian. The plan would be to cut Crimea off and starve it out, but that would make for very bad press. And the fall of Crimea would mean the fall of Putin, and do there is that. The last couple of sentences are mine, and not in the article.

I found the sentence below interesting however. Is that why Ukraine so far is winning the war?

A source in military intelligence is confident that Ukraine’s structural advantages, principally its ability to stage highly mobile hit-and-run attacks and break up supply lines, will prevail. “We’ve demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again,” the source says.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/27/a-ukrainian-attempt-to-retake-crimea-would-be-bloody-and-difficult

I've seen this claimed quite frequently, and it does seem to be the conventional wisdom, but is there any actual evidence to back it up? There might have been some truth to it back in 2014, but is there any evidence that it is still true today?

[nicholas.slaydon]

thats just commie propaganda

Russia hasn't been communist for 31 years.

Russia wasn't communist 31 years ago either.

[nicholas.slaydon]

I like how Woody Woodsucker isn’t even hiding the fact he is pro-Russia now.

He never was.

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1657014629959352320?cxt=HHwWgIDS5dqB8_4tAAA...

RIP Freedom Fighter.

[nicholas.slaydon]

I wonder at what point, if ever, the current war starts to be seen similar to Afghanistan in the Russian public consciousness.

Oh nope, it will be far worse. Ukraine (literally meaning "the border regions") holds such a central place in the Russian consciousness, that its loss would provoke a collective identity crisis. Afghanistan? That's a faraway land full of weird, bearded people. The Kievian Rus' was the spiritual ancestor of Rus', and a Russia that permanently lost it would be unworthy of its name.

That's why Putin has been claiming that the West wants to use Ukraine to destroy Russia - he's not wrong that a Russia that lost its spiritual heartland and its "border regions" in a war would face an existential crisis.

2952-0-0 in 1945:
Oh nope, it will be far worse. Österreich (literally meaning eastern realm) holds such a central place in the German consciousness, that its loss would provoke a collective identity crisis. Bohemia? Sudetenland? That's a far away land full of weird, bearded people. The Austrian Empire was the spiritual ancestor of Germany, and a Germany that permanently lost it would be unworthy of its name.

That is why Hitler is claiming that the West wants to destroy Germany and separate Austria - he's not wrong that a Germany that lost its spiritual heartland and its "eastern realm" in a war would face an existential crisis.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Well, whatever is going on right now in Russia, all I can say is that I know that Kyrylo Budanov has got to be sitting his in office sipping scotch and chortling at this mess.

[nicholas.slaydon]

Please try to keep your posts about the new conflict in Russia in the new thread everyone; people a few weeks or months from now trying to go through Ukraine news will have to go through dozens of pages of posts not relevant to the war to get to it.

The title of this thread is "Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread". How are these events not included in "related tensions"?

[nicholas.slaydon]

I get the annoyance with Israel not supporting Ukraine militarily, but can we please not use needlessly inflammatory language here?

Isn't that language accurate though? A US funded and created weapon that Israel receives all the benefits of, and yet they refuse to allow the US to send that weapon system to Ukraine in their time of need, how is that not parasitic behavior? They take all the benefits of using US funded weapons systems, but help help the US out, I say parasitic is accurate to a tee.

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1727032301111193959?t=USHKwmtXmz8edwO9G...

Sounds like her show was...a hit!

It was a veritable blast

[nicholas.slaydon]

Also, it is well documented how Russia disproportionately uses ethnic minorities and other "outsider" groups to do the actual fighting in Ukraine. It isn't that hard to surmise why.

They did this in the Chechen war and in multiple Soviet era conflicts as well.

China also was notorious for using soldiers from rural provinces and ethnic minorities for some of its worst military actions (e.g. Tianmen) - the thinking was that a) their lives were worth less and would thus raise less of an outcry in the ruling class if the sh**t hit the fan and b) they tended to be less educated/literate so were seen as easier to control than Han soldiers from urban areas.

Seems what is claimed here is also likely to take place in the USA in the next war

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/10/army-sees-sharp-decline-white-recruits.html

"Army Sees Sharp Decline in White Recruits"

In 2018, 56.4% of new recruits were categorized as white. In 2023, that number had fallen to 44%. During that same five-year period, Black recruits have gone from 20% to 24% of the pool, and Hispanic recruits have risen from 17% to 24%, with both groups seeing largely flat recruiting totals but increasing as a percentage of incoming soldiers as white recruiting has fallen.

The difference between the two (which apparently Russian propagandists hacks can't recognize) is that Russia operates a conscript based army whereas the US army is volunteer only.