COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Koharu]

Peer review is a lengthy process, and this submission was just received on April 29.  It's isn't particularly notable that the article is not yet peer reviewed.  The authors are a WHO epidemiologist and two Stanford statisticians.

Wisconsin has also been steadily increasing testing, so we should expect a growth in the number of confirmed cases.

I'm aware. However, sharing a stub like that with a headline stating it as fact is misleading, hence my pointing out it isn't peer reviewed yet, so despite sounding authoritative, it isn't (yet).

I mean, its also misleading to share a tweet claiming people were "forced" to vote. This isn't Australia.

Right, it's totally okay to have to decide between your life or voting. They were forced to vote in an unsafe manner. It didn't have to be that way .

[Koharu]

Wisconsin has a plan to reopen, but it requires very specific metrics to be met, and since those metrics aren't being met, we won't be reopening yet. I don't understand why other states are not implementing the same sort of thing. In addition, it will be a stepped reopening, once we do meet criteria, not everything all at once.



https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/prepare.htm

[Koharu]

I highly recommend listening to this, or at least the first section with the former head of the CDC. The whole episode is very informative and talks about what a proper plan to reopen looks like, and what it requires (hint: way more testing than we're doing now).

How We'll Know When It's Safe To Reopen The U.S. Economy

If listening isn't your thing, there is a summary of the episode at the link, as well as a link to the report written by one of the guests.

[Koharu]

Not directly related to US, but a huge deal if true: Now there are reports the first Covid19 case in France could be dating back to November 2019. For reference, the PRC informed WHO on December 31. Haven't seen US media picking this up yet, but if confirmed, we may be talking about a much earlier spread in the US and elsewhere.

This would line up with some of the surprisingly early community spread some places saw.

[Koharu]

Does anybody know if Penn Quaker is alive and well? Just realized I haven't seen her post in some time and she was getting over Covid-19. I'm probably being paranoid and she's just busy with real life. She was always posting in this thread specifically.

Still alive and well, yes!

Just been busy wrapping up some end-of-the-school-year stuff!

If you hadn't responded, I was going to say "it's finals time," which, even with education being what it is right now, is a busy and stresseful time!

[Koharu]

It's a pandemic. We don't need any more deaths because of poor choices, whether that be via the virus itself or via impaling.

[Koharu]

My husband and I went out to the dog park today as we do pretty regularly, carefully maintaining social distancing. There were significantly more people out and about this weekend as opposed to last weekend, with lots more vehicles at the parking lots of lots of businesses. It was really quite depressing to see.

[Koharu]

My husband and I went out to the dog park today as we do pretty regularly, carefully maintaining social distancing. There were significantly more people out and about this weekend as opposed to last weekend, with lots more vehicles at the parking lots of lots of businesses. It was really quite depressing to see.

I've noticed this as well. At work today, there was a significantly larger number of customers than previously. My store (Home Depot) is still limiting the number of customers who can be in the store at any one time, but they've raised the limit from 100 to 150. The store is therefore filled to capacity at all times. Moreover, I noticed that there were more maskless customers than before. The majority are still wearing masks, but the stubborn, persistent minority has made their presence more known. I went to the grocery store after work, and noticed again the significantly larger number of customers. Here in El Paso County, it seems like people are trying to get back to normal as soon as possible. Our Board of Commissioners was even making calls for all dine-in restaurants to be opened now, but the County Health Department has refused to support such a move, saying we are not ready for it.

The frustrating thing here is that we are still completely under our safer-at-home orders, as the metrics on decreasing cases haven't been met, but people are not following those rules as willingly, which means the metrics will take even longer to be met. Ugh.

[Koharu]

The petulant narcissist just can't handle women asking him smart questions, ran away like a coward.
https://twitter.com/axios/status/1259959091704799233

It also looks as if the reporter he told to ask China is Asian American? So her trying to get him to answer why he told her that specifically is a very important question.

[Koharu]

I'm so glad to be living in Dane county right now, but I live in the outskirts in a town that is frequented by folks from Green and Iowa counties.

I also can't believe they struck it down effective immediately, rather than with the six-day stay that Republicans requested. Business owners are going to have really difficult decisions in front of them.

For those curious, here's the statement from Madison & Dane County Public Health:

[Koharu]

Looking at the responses to the WI supreme Court decision on Twitter really has me thinking. The left is so out of touch these days, it is unbelievable.  They are appealing to emotions and flat out accusing conservatives of murder without thinking of the true consequences of keeping these lockdowns in place. The death models overestimated this, which is good, and we need to open up, badly, ASAP. The economic toll this will have for the next decade is already immense. The authoritarian precedent this sets is also really bad. But you look at which party is advocating for what and maybe you start to see who is for freedom and who is for tyranny.

Well.  How about a compromise?



Counties in blue open up right away.  Counties in red don't.

Pretty sure a fair number of those blue counties don't want to open, either.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/i/events/1219057585707315201

I guess no more international travel, forever.

🙄

There will eventually be a vaccine or new anti-virals that will help with this.

[Koharu]

Not wearing masks and going back to" normal" can still "Kill grandma" if the irresponsible behavior causes hospitals to become overwhelmed.

Avoiding overcrowding the hospitals isn't a static goal. We've avoided it thus far, but if people just go back to life like normal, cases will begin multiplying at an exponential rate once again and thus overwhelm hospitals (even though they are now prepared now) and cause grandma to die because she had a stroke and there weren't any available ICU rooms. If we reopen slowly, continue using masks, and are cautious, we can keep the R value low while getting people back to work.

This isn't just a "yay we did it and now we're done" thing. Is we're going to use the stupid war symbolism, this is a war of attrition and we're under siege. If we go back to living like normal, the siege will be effective and starve us. If we stick with rationing, we can outlast this thing until reinforcements arrive. It's not fun, but it's effective and we have above evidence that it's working.

[Koharu]

From that article on Wisconsin, it looks like Dane County and Waukesha County are doing relatively better than others on cases given their large population. Combination of students staying home and white collar workers able to work remotely?

    4,759 in Milwaukee County
    2,070 in Brown County
    1,004 in Racine County
    820 in Kenosha County
    519 in Dane County 
    467 in Waukesha County
    422 in Rock County

Definitely part of it is the high number of workers able to work from home. In addition, the Madison & Dane County Public Health folks have been doing a lot of good work. Can't speak to Waukesha in that regard, though.

In regards to claims about this being tied to the order being knocked down by the Supreme Court, that only happened late in the day on the 13th, so I really don't think that's going to show up in the numbers yet. However, last weekend was an absolutely beautiful weekend and even in Dane county there were way more people out and about than previously, and that's a trend that continued all through this week. I would attribute the rise in cases to people getting burnt out and deciding to use less caution.

[Koharu]

A small-town weekly newspaper in rural southern Minnesota is trying to convince county and town officials to fly the flag upside-down because their "constitu­tional rights are presently being denied by Minnesota’s Stay at Home order."

"Fly Flag Upside Down"

[Koharu]

I would prefer if they talked about more than just one restaurant to support this claim, but I don't have a hard time believing it.

[Koharu]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Yeah people have wasted two months of their lives on this; fortunately, that’s starting to change now as lockdowns are being relaxed. 

"Wasted?"

I really don't get why people are acting like not being able to go to group events is "wasting" one's life. I've been carrying on with life pretty much as normal, though obviously not making impulse shopping trips. I can go to the park, I can read (libraries being closed is tough, but at least here they're open for curbside service), I can still talk to to people on the phone or even video chat, I can order delicious food from local restaurants, I can do crafts, I can train my pets, I can play video games, etc etc etc. Why is social distancing "wasting" life?

The mental health impacts of this are real and we must be aware of making sure we get the interaction we need, even if it's different than normal. But anyone who is "wasting" their life cannot blame the virus for it: there's plenty to do that doesn't require being in close proximity to others.

I can't help but compare people complaining about this to a spoiled child who has way more toys than they can ever play with complaining when some of the toys are taken away, even though there are still dozens in reach.

[Koharu]

Even though we are months removed, and the weather is now warm, in my head it still feels like it’s March. Anyone else?

Yeah people have wasted two months of their lives on this; fortunately, that’s starting to change now as lockdowns are being relaxed. 

"Wasted?"

I really don't get why people are acting like not being able to go to group events is "wasting" one's life. I've been carrying on with life pretty much as normal, though obviously not making impulse shopping trips. I can go to the park, I can read (libraries being closed is tough, but at least here they're open for curbside service), I can still talk to to people on the phone or even video chat, I can order delicious food from local restaurants, I can do crafts, I can train my pets, I can play video games, etc etc etc. Why is social distancing "wasting" life?

The mental health impacts of this are real and we must be aware of making sure we get the interaction we need, even if it's different than normal. But anyone who is "wasting" their life cannot blame the virus for it: there's plenty to do that doesn't require being in close proximity to others.

I can't help but compare people complaining about this to a spoiled child who has way more toys than they can ever play with complaining when some of the toys are taken away, even though there are still dozens in reach.

Umm, no, most of what living life is requires being around other people.  Basically all you can do alone is distract yourself from the fact that you are alone with entertainment and stuff.  If you actually support social distancing (which has been a stupid concept from day 1), you could make every single one of those same arguments for seasonal flu.

Fortunately, I live in a place where people have brains and have largely given up on social distancing out of fear for a virus that is basically the flu in terms of death rate.

In fact, I've come to believe that the proper policy would have been literally the opposite of social distancing, where we encouraged everyone young and healthy to have even greater social contact than usual to try to hit herd immunity within a couple weeks or so while sparing the tiny minority of people for whom the coronavirus is actually a concern from the virus.

Even in the strictest lockdowns, most people aren’t alone, they are with their families.   I’d have to think you believe this is meaningful.   And you can still interact with everyone else online if you want, which is what most of our regular interactions are now anyway outside of family and work.

My daily life didn’t really change much as a result of the lockdowns, since I was already on leave from my job to be with my newborn daughter.  Honestly, the thing I’m missing most is the opportunity to be alone in my office (to get a break from the family for a while).

I'd imagine it's pretty nice to be an introvert who lives with a family right now. I'm a single extrovert who lives alone. I designed my life to be constantly out and about with other people. This is hell for me. The last time I touched another human (except when I needed bloodwork done in April) was March 14th. My hobbies and interests all involve being around other people, even the ones I can do on my own. I bake for others. I watch shows so I can talk about them when I'm with others. I go to church to form community with others. And suddenly those have all been ripped away from me. If one of my parents were to be wasting away, dying in a hospital from this disease, I would be breaking CDC recommendations if I so much as got a hug from a friend.

Look, I'm not one of the #ReopenEverything crazies. I am trying to diligently stick to the instructions of the state of Connecticut. I do not think life should go back to how it was until we have a vaccine. But to dismiss the feelings of folks who miss being around people out of hand—not just to say "this is hard, and scary, and I can understand how hard this must be in your life, but it's a part of the shared sacrifice we have to make", but instead to compare being an extrovert to being a "spoiled child" and blithely insist that "most of our regular interactions are [online] now"—will just entrench those attitudes further. I am miserable being on my own. The ways that structure my life and bring me joy are illegal right now.

So of course this feels like wasted time to me. I am not anxious every day like I was at first, but I haven't felt real joy for months, now, because the most joyous days of my life are ones where I feel surrounded by people. The analogy for me is not to a "spoiled child"; it's to a street urchin, being directed to the dumpster of social comfort found on Zoom or online while forbidding them from the restaurant that the dumpster belongs to. If you want to tell the urchins why they can't enter the restaurant, you need to start by acknowledging that you're feeding them a crappy meal, not by bragging about the home garden you have.

I'm an extrovert as well. I didn't mention anything about family. It's very difficult to not be going to visit my elderly dad, who I normally visit once a month.

These are difficult times, and not being able to recharge fully is tough. But this time certainly isn't wasted. Not having lots of joy doesn't mean life is wasted. If that were the case, most of my life would be "wasted" since depression is a jerk. But despite the challenges, I keep learning, admiring art and beauty, etc etc. People claiming this time is "wasted" have only themselves to blame. If you only think being around other people is meaningful, then most people waste significant portions of their lives.

Even if it's not bringing you joy and is a struggle, things you're doing right now are not a waste. If you're working, you're contributing. If you're a caretaker or parent, you're contributing. If you're learning, you're not wasting time. Even watching TV, one of the most passive ways to spend time, isn't necessarily a waste, and most people have access to more than just watching TV during their waking hours.

[Koharu]

Here's where Dane county is as of today in regards to reopening. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. This is basically Governor Evers's plan.

[Koharu]

Are we ready for thread 6?

I think the mods are letting this get long to test if it does have an impact on performance.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/maggiemfox/status/1265597868724936704?s=20

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1187829299207954437
A reminder that it didn't need to be this way.

Well of course no country on earth is prepared for a pandemic if you ask government epidemiologists and big pharma lobbyists.  How else would they get their $$$? 

This is like when the American Academy of Civil Engineers every year gives the vast majority of states a bad grade on road infrastructure.  Serious risk-seeking and adverse incentives are at play.   

As someone who’s parents worked with the NIH, you are absolutely insane. Government epidemiologists and NIH workers are so limited they can’t even do things that seem perfectly ethical and normal, much less can they even think about being paid to shill. There are so many regulations preventing that, it just doesn’t happen. Of course, facts don’t matter when you are pushing an anti-scientist narrative.

As someone who has worked in both Federal and state executive service, what makes you think I don’t know what the functions of regulatory big-wigs are?  Self-preservation is the name of the game.  Government agencies and their associated professional/interest groups constantly lobby for increased resources.  Saying your regulatory area is chronically underserved is one of the best ways to do that.  The CDC or NIH are no different.

I swear, for a political forum it never ceases to amaze me the juvenile approach many take to politics here.  This isn’t a conspiracy, just a general note on agency dynamics and intergovernmental lobbying you would have learned in any 300 level poli sci class at a third-rate commuter college.  The NIH and CDC aren’t exempted from iron triangles because doctors are “good guys” or whatever. 

Of course experts push for their area to get more funding in normal times. Most areas are extremely underfunded. The AACE gives most states a bad grade because most states have absolutely abysmal roads, thanks to tax cuts etc.

That's not to say that experts don't also play politics when it comes to getting funding, but that doesn't also mean they're lying about the state of things, either. This isn't an either-or situation.

[Koharu]

This is huge and does make things make more sense if it is the case.

https://twitter.com/sanjum/status/1266502350039990272?s=20

[Koharu]

Well, there are often days that don't align with other days, but I'm afraid we will be seeing cases creep back up. Ugh.

That said, I won't blame just the protests. Even before they started, the number of people wearing masks and staying home had already begun to decline here.

There was actually a great socially distant protest here in Madison--they were in cars and blocking part of the main arterial highway. People could still get around/to their destinations, but it was certainly an inconvenience, and protestors were in their own cars. I'm all about more protests like that. Gain attention, make sure emergency services can still get through, and stay socially distant. Perfect protest during a pandemic.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/rollwthepunches/status/1268045610898292736?s=20
https://twitter.com/rollwthepunches/status/1268045613003923456?s=20

And one as a screenshot instead because language: