COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1242798008170938369

As has been stated before, without adjusting for population, this data means nothing. Italy's infection and death rate are far higher as a % of their overall population and frankly, thats what matters in judging effectiveness of treatment and severity of outbreak.

Chinese data is suspect to say the least and the government subject large parts of the country to draconian lockdown policies. India has been oddly immune to the virus despite going on lockdown recently too. The US is bound to have the most cases at this rate by sheer population alone.

I mean, China has several times the population of the U.S. If you adjust for population, it's going to look a lot worse in comparison to China.

[Dr. Arch]

I believe that the U.S surpassing the number of cases of China, where it all started and where there is a larger AND denser population, might be the straw that breaks the camel's back in terms of the conversation about the administration's relative performance in responding to this disaster and fumbling it in the process.

[Dr. Arch]

Im going to attempt to do the impossible and Play devils advocate for President Trump

As many of you on here already know Trump is your classic narcissistic
He needs for people to constantly praise him at all times and tell him how awesome he is.
Kim and Putin have already picked up on this because They know all they have to do is say a few nice words to the guy and he gives them everything they could ever ask for

Maybe its time our governors start having that same mentality
Im not saying they have to like it but I think they should all get on the phone right now and Give trump whatever BS praise he is asking for in order to get what they can out of him.

hell if I was governor I would tell him he is the greatest president since Lincoln if he would shut up and give my state everything it needs lol

Not let me be clear about this The Governors and mayors should not have to do this but if helps save lives and get them the resources they need then it is worth it in the end

There is another alternative.
The House has yet to vote on the bailout...it is not too late to actually do what is needed for the good of the country!

Which is...

[Dr. Arch]

We're about to hit 100,000 cases total today, and we're now over 1,500 deaths, with many states yet to report updated statistics.

[Dr. Arch]

When I was a kid I thought America was the greatest country and the year 2020 would be the future with incredibly technology and amazing human achievements.

 2020 sucks, the American government looks totally incompetent, all over the world voters have embraced regressive governments with an eye towards the past.

 I hope when we move past this the world will embrace science, competent governance, and progress with a move away from this trend of xenophobic hate for "the other", that actually does nothing at all to protect you at the end of the day.
 
 

Most things along this line of thought precipitate my previous perspective on the U.S., putting me on the fast track to emigrate once I finish my PhD.

What does it have to offer? Bankruptcy on a major accident or significant sickness? The inability to buy good property? Toxic politics that don't care about its own citizens? Millions of second class citizens that don't have voting representation in Congress and that can't vote for their own president? 

I mean, the indignity can only go so far.

[Dr. Arch]

Millions of second class citizens that don't have voting representation in Congress and that can't vote for their own president? 

Are you really threatening to leave the country because some felons cant vote?

American citizens residing in Puerto Rico aren't felons. Felons, on the other hand, can/do have representation if they're in the states.

That was my reality growing up as a second class American citizen. You would be a second class citizen too, if you bought a house/rented an apartment in and moved to Puerto Rico, just like that.

You can see how bad it is, seeing how your assumption went to felons, and it wasn't a bad assumption. However, this whole exchange reveals just how absurd that one situation is, and it's just one of the numbers on my list.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/27 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (↑41.03%)

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/1243619964252282886?s=20

Worthy of impeachment in and of itself.

[Dr. Arch]

A projection meter for COVID-19 in the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

81,000... 😰

[Dr. Arch]

New York is considering training national guard members to use the hand pumps in case they run out of ventilators. They require someone to constantly pump them 24/7, primitive old school technology.

This is what we get for outsourcing our manufacturing, reaping all of the profits of globalization and spending not a dime on anything else.

Ladies and gentlemen, "the most powerful and capable country in the world"...

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/28 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28 (Today):

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

[Dr. Arch]

Is it inevitable now that the U.S. will have the most deaths?

Mathematically, it is certainly a possibility.

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure what DeSantis is doing.


https://twitter.com/adamplayford/status/1244048209896448000

Nothing significant, and that's the problem.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/29 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29 (Today):

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/29 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29 (Today):

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

Death toll down massively yesterday. Not quite sure what to make of this. Hopefully it is a sign of better things ahead, but honestly, the daily death toll isn't "supposed" to culminate yet, let alone fall.

As a terrible FYI, today is going to be terrible on both ends. We're looking at 700++ deaths in one day...

[Dr. Arch]

We might be hitting +1000 deaths and >+20,000 new cases in one day today.

Absolutely disastrous news compared to yesterday...

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30 (Today):

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

[Dr. Arch]

I think this week or next will be the peak

Based on what?

"Hunches," it's the modus operandi of Trump and his supporters.

[Dr. Arch]

Haven't been checking the thread much recently. Are we thinking the apparent plateau in new cases is going to sustain itself for some time, or that it's mainly because of the NYC area shooting its load and/or just a temporary stall in growth for some other reason?

The short answer is that we aren't testing nearly enough to know either way.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30 (Today):

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

No WA numbers yet. The Department of Health changed their reporting style and time due to the rise in cases.

I can report that there is one confirmed case of COVID-19 in my small, 15 person office. Thankfully I last interacted with them back on 3/18 and anyone who was symptomatic on 3/20. No symptoms thus far. Loving that isolation lifestyle. Only like a week left of it.

Yes, WA is reporting late, so any numbers we get from them will be lagging from the last day. The Worldometer resets at 10:00PM EST every day, which is a bit early for WA.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump administration sends Illinois 300,000 of the wrong types of mask. You can't make this stuff up!

https://twitter.com/DanaCBS2/status/1244711710558236674

[Dr. Arch]

Today has been the deadliest day in America, with over 770 deaths

Still over an hour for the final numbers update. I'll post them here soon, but it's a nightmare nonetheless...

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like there were about 4200 deaths today worldwide.  The previous record was around 3700.  It appears all the favorable trends from the last couple days have gone up in smoke.

BTW, I believe that although the worldometers site resets its daily display around 10pm EDT, it actually resets its counter at midnight GMT, which is 8pm EDT.

For the last time. Deaths are reflective of what happened 7-10 days ago.

The number of new cases worldwide was +72,000 as well, a new record. There's some speculation that things are artificially suppressed on Sundays and Mondays because some countries take those days off from testing.

I figured that was true of Sunday, but not sure why it would be true of Monday.  I’m also not sure why it would affect death numbers.

It would be more helpful to look at individual countries, rather than the overall worldwide numbers each day.  What SJoyce said about the US can be applied to the world.  There are lots of favorable trends, its just that the US is so large and we're not at our apex yet so that is fueling a large part of the increase right now.  Spain and Italy have clearly peaked, and Italy is on its way down.  The doomsday numbers were totally wrong.

The doomsday numbers were for doomsday scenarios, respectively (what would have happened should we had done absolutely nothing, which we avoided doing, even if we reacted late). So, obviously, we aren't going to see the doomsday numbers.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 3/31 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'll be keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day. The percentages represent the daily increase from the last report.

3/26:

• Cases: 85,390
• Deaths: ±1,200

3/27:

• Cases: 103,798 (+18,408 | ↑21.56%)
• Deaths: 1,693 (+493 | ↑41.03%)

3/28:

• Cases: 123,428 (+19,630 | ↑18.91%)
• Deaths: 2,211 (+518 | ↑30.60%)

3/29:

• Cases: 142,178 (+18,750 | ↑15.20%)
• Deaths: 2,484 (+273 | ↑12.35%)

3/30 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 163,490 (+21,312 | ↑14.99%)
• Deaths: 3,148 (+664 | ↑26.73%)

3/31 (Today):

• Cases: 187,917 (+24,427 | ↑14.94%)
• Deaths: 3,867 (+749 | ↑22.84%)

[Dr. Arch]

Advanced notice everyone... but over 1,200 Americans died today due to COVID-19. I will post the full numbers in an hour when they finish updating.