Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Dr. Arch]

Madison represented:

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1060065845685219328

Holy flipping hell!

[Dr. Arch]

WOW! Is this even real?

 

[Dr. Arch]

Evers is giving his victory speech.

[Dr. Arch]

Two things really got Walker this time around: (1) suburban erosion in WOW (yes, it happened), and 2) INSANE turnout in Dane and especially Madison. MKE is also an unsung hero. The county finally got its revenge with those absentees.

[Dr. Arch]

Guys, I wouldn't call this official just yet. Scott Walker is demanding a recount, and he might just slither his way through this.

Walker doesn't get a recount per a state law he himself signed, lol. They need to be within 1% of each other.

[Dr. Arch]

Walker conceded!!!

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1060258991215992833

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia: You were right

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1060301509584404480?s=21

This is gonna go about as well as it did in NC.

Exactly

[Dr. Arch]

Evers and the Dems should really push for getting marijuana legalized first honestly. It's an easy way to get a tax increase in and get a lot more funding for the schools and roads and they might be able to get it past Republicans for a ballot initiative in 2020, which would help the Dems win the state too.

Yep! I was just talking about this with one of my students yesterday.

[Dr. Arch]

Evers and the Dems should really push for getting marijuana legalized first honestly. It's an easy way to get a tax increase in and get a lot more funding for the schools and roads and they might be able to get it past Republicans for a ballot initiative in 2020, which would help the Dems win the state too.

Yep! I was just talking about this with one of my students yesterday.

Um... Wisconsin doesn't have ballot initiatives. The most they could do is pressure the legislature to pass it and tax it... which, isn't a bad strategy. I don't think it's likely, but it would be popular.

It does have Referendums though, which could be run in every county. For instance, Dane county overwhelmingly passed a Referendum on Tuesday to legalize Marijuana sales in the country, to be taxed and regulated like alcohol.

[Dr. Arch]

Evers and the Dems should really push for getting marijuana legalized first honestly. It's an easy way to get a tax increase in and get a lot more funding for the schools and roads and they might be able to get it past Republicans for a ballot initiative in 2020, which would help the Dems win the state too.

Yep! I was just talking about this with one of my students yesterday.

Um... Wisconsin doesn't have ballot initiatives. The most they could do is pressure the legislature to pass it and tax it... which, isn't a bad strategy. I don't think it's likely, but it would be popular.

It does have Referendums though, which could be run in every county. For instance, Dane county overwhelmingly passed a Referendum on Tuesday to legalize Marijuana sales in the country, to be taxed and regulated like alcohol.

That doesn't overturn state law though... so state cops could still shut down any dispensaries in Madison... if that's how the GOP wants to roll. I'm not sure that Marijuana is unpopular enough with the GOP rank in file for them to care. That's why I think Evers is probably ok trying to work out bi-partisan legalization. I honestly think medical marijuana is likely. Recreational might be a bridge too far, but we'll see.

If the Referendum in Dane is any indication (>88%), and assuming even modestly proportional statewide support, recreational Marijuana could easily be passed in the state.

[Dr. Arch]

Evers and the Dems should really push for getting marijuana legalized first honestly. It's an easy way to get a tax increase in and get a lot more funding for the schools and roads and they might be able to get it past Republicans for a ballot initiative in 2020, which would help the Dems win the state too.

Yep! I was just talking about this with one of my students yesterday.

Um... Wisconsin doesn't have ballot initiatives. The most they could do is pressure the legislature to pass it and tax it... which, isn't a bad strategy. I don't think it's likely, but it would be popular.

It does have Referendums though, which could be run in every county. For instance, Dane county overwhelmingly passed a Referendum on Tuesday to legalize Marijuana sales in the country, to be taxed and regulated like alcohol.

That doesn't overturn state law though... so state cops could still shut down any dispensaries in Madison... if that's how the GOP wants to roll. I'm not sure that Marijuana is unpopular enough with the GOP rank in file for them to care. That's why I think Evers is probably ok trying to work out bi-partisan legalization. I honestly think medical marijuana is likely. Recreational might be a bridge too far, but we'll see.

If the Referendum in Dane is any indication (>88%), and assuming even modestly proportional statewide support, recreational Marijuana could easily be passed in the state.

None of the refrenda are binding. It has to go through the legislature.

I know; I know. The point I'm making is that getting a statewide Referendum in 2020 could produce the kind of support that would help Democrats overall.

[Dr. Arch]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

It' means that a Democrat actually represents a sliver of Waukesha County. Not sure the last time that happened in the state legislature.

The suburban erosion is going to turn WI really ugly for Republicans. Western WI doesn't show any notable signs of movement, while Dane and MKE keep growing. If Republicans lose a significant share of their WOW support, which is what keeps them afloat and competitive, I don't see them doing well in the future.

[Dr. Arch]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

#realignment

You have to wonder if a Madison/Milwaukee/WOW coalition represents the distant future of the Wisconsin Democrats.

LMAO, that'd be something to witness.

[Dr. Arch]

Dane County Clerk Scott McDonnell is the hero in defeating this proposal. He was able to organize 64 of the 72 county clerks across the state to come out against the bill including those in Ozaukee and Waukesha.

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1069741503558443008

Real life hero

[Dr. Arch]

Good luck trying to make me and many other young workers stay in the state, WI Republicans. You're really doing the state a great service...

Even more disappointing is the silence from our Republican friends...

[Dr. Arch]

Good luck trying to make me and many other young workers stay in the state, WI Republicans. You're really doing the state a great service...

Even more disappointing is the silence from our Republican friends...

I missed this comment of yours, but please don't leave WI. The fewer progressive voices we have, the worse for the future of our state. Plus, you're just going to help make WI redder......

We have done good this year, but unfortunately the fight to rid our state government of corruption is not over.

My long term plans didn't quite involve WI, but it wasn't altogether discarded barring some stroke of luck. This kind of politics, though, are repulsive and spits in the face of all Wisconsinites, many of whom are standing by and smirking because it benefits their party of preference.

Alongside horrible health policies, a seemingly eternally gamed WI congress, and its ever-growing harmful divisions, what can WI offer me that, say, MN can't?

[Dr. Arch]

Yeah, if people from both parties can’t at least agree that the moves of the WI GOP, MI GOP, and NC GOP are out of line and blatantly self-serving attempts to avoid the will of the people, we’re never going to get anywhere. Of course, I’m sure many usual suspects will dodge the question by bringing up Menendez or someone from the Illinois Democratic Party to “prove” that “the Democrats are just as bad/way worse!!!” I get that we’re polarized, but we’re all screwed if we can’t acknowledge when our own party is giving the middle finger to their constituents to consolidate power.

The moves are heralded by the conservatives in the burbs here right now. It's to stop Evers "from bending us over and bleeding us dry" which would somehow happen with a Republican legislature? There's also the #ResistEvers meme right now going around heavily too.

Downright sad

[Dr. Arch]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

[Dr. Arch]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

A fair map would involve baconmandering Madison and Milawaukee. It's better to just reach out to the non-urban areas.

Uh no, it wouldn't. See Wisconsin pre-2010 redistricting.

[Dr. Arch]

Gov. Evers just signed an order directing the Health Agency to work on expanding Medicaid and to guarantee coverage for pre-existing conditions! He's also working on pulling WI from the ACA lawsuit, but the new set of legislation has prevented him from doing so on day one.

Great news!


Link: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-signs-orders-aimed-at-expanding-medicaid-covering-pre/article_c9bcea26-8e56-5b21-9471-6a0f1a860159.html

[Dr. Arch]

Scott Walker will be moving to a downtown Milwaukee condo

Also doesn't rule out running again. Don't think he'll get along well with the wealthy liberals that live in a lot of those lakefront condos.

Hot take: WEALTHY conservatives and WEALTHY liberals usually get along just fine, LOL.

Maybe in IL, but trust me when I say that Shorewood Hills liberals want nothing to do with Waukesha conservatives.

[Dr. Arch]

Good for Evers:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1100157509359276032

Thank goodness

[Dr. Arch]

Per usual the rurals have the "SOS" Save Our State, vote Talibandorn signs out in full force.

Coincidentally all the rural farms that have those signs don't like the free market milk prices and are asking the government for socialism to make more money.

Gotta love folks who vote against their own interest because of black people kneeling and Confederate traitor statues

The 2 best governors for the state in the past 40 years were Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker , both Republicans .

Are you for real? Putting Thompson and Walker in the same category is a disgrace.

[Dr. Arch]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

I saw nothing but Neubauer signs in Wauwatosa when I visited Milwaukee this past week. I saw a handful of Neubauer signs in Mequon (which is slowly starting to vote D like the North Shore), but mostly Hagedorn signs there and in Brookfield when I visited.

You can imagine how Dane county looks like, so I won't even bother

[Dr. Arch]

Proudly voted for Neubauer and Satya early this morning. I was in the 60s at my precinct.