Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Dr. Arch]

Any updates on the flooding?

No rain since Friday, which is good, but thunderstorms are in the forecast for next week. We'll see then. Things are quiet.

[Dr. Arch]

Evers will win...the state leg will flip...and progressive policies will be ushered in. Get ready for voting rights, medicaid expansion, etc...!

All of my family (all of whom are Independents) who voted for Walker three times is supporting Evers solely due to Walker's refusal to distance himself from Trump, and they live in the rural areas of the state. I just hope to God other Independents follow suit in this once progressive state!

Wisconsin just can't afford all the extra spending to be brought in by Super Nintendo Evers. Vote Scott Walker in November. If he didn't restrict your ability to vote, that is.

What does this mean?

It's a pun on Superintendent, I believe.

It's endearing if you ask me, xD.

[Dr. Arch]

Rain has started again, and it's been going for hours. Many areas near the lakes will be forced to evacuate soon.

[Dr. Arch]

Rain has started again, and it's been going for hours. Many areas near the lakes will be forced to evacuate soon.

And heavy rain in other areas, too. La Crosse county saw 11 inches today, the Baraboo River in Sauk County is set to rise 10 ft!!! by Thursday/Friday due to all the rain, Green County is also now seeing flooding, and there are more storms yet to come. It's terrifying and I hope people can stay safe.

Yeah, Western and South Central WI are getting pummeled.

[Dr. Arch]

Walker is flopping and flailing a lot more this time around, which suggests things aren't going too well for him.

[Dr. Arch]

Baldwin+7
Evers +4

[Dr. Arch]

YAAA BOIII  8]

[Dr. Arch]

What's with everyone's boner for RINO Tom in every thread?!

Too many crushes, it seems.

[Dr. Arch]

I haven't seen the numbers, or spending from the 2016 race but my assumption was that a late injection of money from GOP outside groups,a strong state GOP operation and Trump boosting rural turnout all gave RoJo just enough to get through- combined with Feingold's own weaknesses from past campaigns.

Walker won't have the luxury of outspending, or boosted rural turnout.

Why won't he, though? He replaces scant rural numbers with fantastic numbers in WOW...and the Kochs have him as their own personal pet project.

Like I've told you before, those "fantastic WOW numbers" could likely plummet slightly this year because of the latest Marquette poll showing Walker trailing among the college-educated and the nationwide shift of college-educated white people towards the Democrat Party. WOW won't save him this time if Evers and Baldwin regain many Obama-Trump voters in the rural areas of the state.

On a side note: I made a vow to myself that if Walker gets reelected, I am heading for Minnesota! 8 years is LONG enough! ACT 10 has been an absolute detriment to my wages and working conditions as a public-sector employee.

Likely where I'm headed too, if not Vancouver

[Dr. Arch]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

[Dr. Arch]

Very little enthusiasm for the Republican ticket in Burlington, a pretty Republican city in WI-01:

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Source

WI might surprise more than believed in November. We'll see.

I really hope Democrats can flip at least one chamber of the legislature if they win the Govs office. It's critical because Wisconsin Republicans are exactly the type to use their remaining power in the legislature to refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot in 2020 to take away the Gov's ability to veto new maps. I wouldn't put it past them to try and end same-day voter registration too (Walker already looked into it but deemed it to expensive). They need to pass the amendment by a majority vote in two back-to-back sessions to get it on the ballot, which means if they lose the state Senate this cycle, they can't do it in time.

Never underestimate what corrupt, partisan lawmakers will do when backed into a corner and threatened with the loss of power they have come to take for granted. Pennsylvania Republicans seriously entertained impeaching every Democrat on the state Supreme Court for overturning the Congressional map, and they already made moves to try and take away Democrats' influence in redistricting just like I mused about above. I'm not 100% the WIGOP will try this, but we're bound to see them try this in a couple states if the losses are bad. They are not going to go quietly.

I honestly hope they flip both chambers, for this state's sake. It's honestly quite tiresome to live under such a blatantly toxic political environment that is the WI GOP. Very few other state-level Republican parties can top it (I can think of at least NC here).

In any case, if this state is to not go the way of Kansas, there has to be significant change for a good period of time. The gap between WI and MN will continue to widen as this state sinks further into an economic and migratory abyss.

[Dr. Arch]

Game over. Walker’s got this one in the bag. The Electric Company vote is gonna come through bigly for Walker.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbF6GcES3-4&feature=youtu.be

Best ad of the decade.

Dear lord

I can't sink any further into my seat

OH

No


LOL

[Dr. Arch]

Nvm, the poll hasn't been released yet.

[Dr. Arch]

Scott Walker is now accusing Tony Evers of plagiarism: https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/scott-walker-hits-tony-evers-over-plagiarized-material-in-budget/article_c2d4d2ea-b65a-563e-960b-977a9342634a.html

The man is doing everything he can to win. He doesn't know how to campaign on his own merits because he doesn't have any.

I see he's shed his muhmoderate snake skin and gone straight for dumpster fire politics. This is a clear departure from his previous sleezy campaign tactics that he used when he felt comfortable. I doubt this will help, but it seems to me like a panic move.

[Dr. Arch]

I hear Evers ran away with it at the debate

[Dr. Arch]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

He's right to be worried. Wisconsin is the next Arkansas. Dems have completely forgotten this state in their pursuit for Atlanta old money denizens.

That's funny, I don't remember Wisconsin being one of the most socially conservative states in the nation where population growth is primarily in rural areas.

Anyway, being nervous about this race is definitely normal and doesn't make one a concern troll. Saying that Walker will definitely win again because 2016 and something something Titanium R Wisconsin with a permanent R trend, on the other hand...

[Dr. Arch]

Evers reads mean tweets:

https://www.facebook.com/Tony4WI/videos/1027615327409706/

[Dr. Arch]

This race is this year's VA 2017.

[Dr. Arch]

These videos give me hope:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgyGiccYeA4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w127yuKDeqY

I guess Wisconsin voters are more informed than I thought! Walker fatigue is real!

Have you seen the Madison area? It's riddled with giant "VOTE" posters and lawn signs everywhere. It's far beyond anything I saw in 2016. My guess is that we'll overperform Dallet's raw numbers and relative turnout.

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting tidbits from this recent WI-06 poll:

The WI-06 race is pretty tight (50-48 Grothman)
Swing in this district is 15 points D.
And, perhaps most interesting... the US Senate and Governors race are "within 2 points" of the congressional race. If so, then a split decision in the WI-06 district would indicate a solid Evers/Baldwin victory.

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1057119295820333056

If it's at all close in WI-06, it's in landslide territory.

If Walker is winning WI-06 by 10 or fewer points, he really can't win.

[Dr. Arch]

Eternal Gov. Walker, the Terry Branstad of our times

 

[Dr. Arch]

Northamitis striking again I see.

[Dr. Arch]

Will the WOW counties turn out as heavily for Walker like they did 4 years ago?

Maybe not as heavily, but still quite a bit. The thing is Dane and MKE are also fired up (beyond 2016 levels even), and Western WI won't go for Walker in the same way this time around.

[Dr. Arch]

#60 at my polling place at 8:00 in the morning! There were people steadily coming in as I voted too. Turnout is through the roof in my precinct in Madison.

[Dr. Arch]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

Yep!

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059889404188221441