absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

Colorado: Democrats 443,517   36.9%,   Republicans   420,330   35.0% or 1.9% difference of around 23,187 vote lead for the democrats.

Way to close.

Didn't Romney end up winning Colorado's early vote in 2012?

By 2%, in fact.

Yep. She's over-performing in CO.

[Dr. Arch]

I would note that unaffiliated voters in NC are heavily urban, young, and mostly women. The fact that they have spiked to the point of equaling the R share should be spoopy to Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

D+14,181 net, nice

[Dr. Arch]

Do we have any demographic info from CO available?

[Dr. Arch]

Great news from FL! Hundreds of historically black college or university (HBCU) students took to the polls in Durham and Daytona Beach on Wednesday to kick off early voting on their respective campus.

Link: https://hbcubuzz.com/2016/11/hundreds-hbcu-students-march-polls-early-voting/

[Dr. Arch]

Buhhhh I was told that WI would go for Trump because working white class whites!!!!

Yeah. Working white class whites that are registred Democrates

This article has nothing to do with Shy Theory. Like not at all.

Uhm? I read his link before posting and I'm well aware of what it was about. Did you not consider why I responded to his post while using two different terms? If I was solely referring to the shy voter theory I'd have responded to Ebsy's post.

Sheesh LittleBig, maybe next time be a little slower to pounce would ya?

I like you and you are so mean

There is no party registration in Wisconsin, just so you know. Trump always has been a horrible fit for the state, and he's going nowhere here, period.

[Dr. Arch]

So, how are FL, NC, and CO looking?

[Dr. Arch]

Steve Schale:

"Not insignificant for HRC:
Non-white share of FL early voters thru yesterday: 31.3
Among NPA: 35
In other words NPA more diverse than state."

Schale just said on Maddow "We'll know pretty early on Tuesday who won Florida."

Considering early voting is huge this year, yup.

Do you in USA count EV before the polls are closed?

They are released quickly when polls close.

[Dr. Arch]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.

[Dr. Arch]

What are the final numbers for Clark tonight?

[Dr. Arch]

Ds overperform 2012 Firewall considerably above 60k.

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2016: Ds +5,794

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2012: Ds +5,673

I told you it looked a lot like 2012.

[Dr. Arch]

Additionally, even in the Blue Collar WWC counties in Oregon, there is not any indication that Trump is particularly popular, even in places like Douglas and Linn County that typically vote 60-40 Republican at the Presidential level, and frequently much higher for statewide races.

We will see what happens over the next few days, but I am still shocked to see that Republican Party turnout is lagging Democratic Party turnout almost everywhere in Oregon.

The perfect storm of an energized D base supported by a massive and elaborate GOTV machine and a depressed GOP turnout because of an awful candidate with practically no ground game.

[Dr. Arch]

Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.

[Dr. Arch]

The states I am worried about are Pa and NH. I don't like the way the polls are looking...Is this justified?

You shouldn't be worrying about PA. NH is more so-so, but I'm pretty confident HRC will carry it honestly.

[Dr. Arch]

Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.

Source for that?

Anyway, just pulling even won't be enough to keep up if Whites are at 140% or so from 2012.

The unaffiliated vote in NC is WAY up, which is heavy young, urban, and comprised of more women than men. That can only be a good sign.

As for the AA votes, they were posted on this thread earlier, I believe. They will be updated soon though.

[Dr. Arch]

Note that unaffiliateds in FL are heavy Hispanic, which can only be good news overall with this humongous spike in turnout of Hispanic voters.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

Here's the reference from PPP 4 years ago on the early vote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/florida-and-north-carolina-going-down-to-the-wire.html#more

So HRC has a much wider lead going into ED with a similar ground game facing no ground game. Sounds wonderful.

[Dr. Arch]

Ohio news: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton Counties made up 28% of the early vote in '12.

This year, they've made up 31% of the early vote, with Franklin County making up the biggest difference. A lot more infrequent voters showing up early this year.

Great news to hear that OH is recovering nicely.

[Dr. Arch]

As of right now, over 37 million people have already voted, representing over 80% of the 2012 EV. Note that many states have yet to update since October, and we have a huge voting dump coming in the next 2 days from big last day votes.

Some notes:

FL: Now tied, Ds will likely be winning the EV after today
NC: Ds have widened the margin

[Dr. Arch]

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Indies lean D in NV, so he's pretty much toast. The Clark county firewall is huge right now too and Rs are not doing even close to well enough in Washoe.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

Well if this is accurate from the Clinton News Network things look great for Trump. Can the Colorado numbers actually be right??? Shes up 1.5% right now, really? All those states look good but i would prefer to see comparisons to 2012 than 2008 when Obama won by HUGE HUGE numbers.

Actually if were comparing it to 2008 and not 2012 the numbers are actually even that much better for Trump!! Thanks for the re-cap.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Obama actually lost the EV by 2% in 2012 in CO. NV looks exceptionally well for HRC, and FL and NC have improved immensely over the last couple of days. Thing are looking quite grim for Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

LOL at people saying NV is gone, guess we will see in three days.

You're in for a rough Tuesday. You completely ignore the data of votes we have and reference NV polls (which are never accurate). Give it up. NV and CO are gone.

WI won't ever be a viable state for him. At the height of everything, he's never even come close to leading in the polls, and he's WAY down in the EV, both in registration and in the polls of it.

MI is another faulty poll state. With WI being where it is, MI is going nowhere.

VA is not going for Trump, period. NoVA is now a larger share of the vote than before, and he's a horrible fit even for there.

PA is his best bet. Good luck though.

[Dr. Arch]

I will add that my post above is assuming FL and NC are going to Trump by default. The trends show the opposite, especially for FL, so yeah. With no ground game, he's almost kinda done. We'll know almost for certain by Monday.

[Dr. Arch]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.

Awesome! Even before the day began there was a 4,000 vote swing. That already puts Ds leading before today's wave.