The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

Most Sos sites don't update weekend numbers until Monday....

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that many on the forum are freaking without any real data to back it up....

Nobody is freaking out in here so far as I can tell (don't count Jante; he's in permanent freak out mode ). NV looks very good!

[Dr. Arch]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  15s16 seconds ago
"Of the 20,269 people who voted today in Georgia, 48% are Black (11% are unknown, due to a slightly stale voter file) #soulstopolls"

Hallelujah!

Thank you JESUS!!!

WHOA!!! There you go Jante!

[Dr. Arch]

NC-re-alignment:

according to a right-wing-think tank - last summer:

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https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/ncs-voter-registration-upheaval-2012-2016/


compared to the 2012 election there are now 145000 registered democrats less...and 20000 registered republicans more.


https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-03-2012
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-29-2016

unaff are the biggest difference by far.

Democrats still have a very comfy cushion to work with, and unaffiliated appear to be breaking largely for HRC based on EV polling. Souls to the Polls was also a great success today in NC and beyond.

[Dr. Arch]

Tom Bonier

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

"22% of ballots cast in FL thus far have come from voters who didn't cast a ballot in '12. Dems have a 3% advantage among these voters."

"IA: D vote share now 0.5% ahead of '12. R vote share is 2.3% ahead of '12. Tiny D advantage as far as share who didn't vote in '12 (+0.8%)."

"Looks tough for Trump in NV (a must win):
- D's have a 44k advantage in early vote thus far
- 26.7% of D EVs didn't vote in '12, 23.7% of Rs"

Does that include Clark results from today?

No

[Dr. Arch]

@Atlantic...what is this?

Sorry, forgot to give description. Above is the race/ethnicity breakdown of Florida early voters.

TY

since blacks and latinos seem to come out for republicans in faaar higher number than assumed, either the polls have been off,...or the unaff are really breaking hard.

High AA gop number? What the whole 10k of them if I'm reading it right is minuscule in that chart....

I imagine a lot of the Hispanic GOP is Cubans, I'm curious what if any crossover there will be

Against Trump? Quite a bit I would bet, especially if the highly accurate Latino poll is anywhere close to the estimated numbers. Down ballot candidates in FL will likely receive the typical share of Cuban-American votes.

[Dr. Arch]

So, overall, a bunch of good news over the weekend, even in OH? Excellent.

[Dr. Arch]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

It was 30% in 2012 i think when it ended up at 22 according to exits. So if now is 22% and it is 22.23% with today data, then it would sink well below 20% after election day voting.

Early vote really doesn't look god for Dems in NC but it looks bad for Trump in NV.

No, it actually looks pretty good. Check out the earlier posts in this thread.

[Dr. Arch]

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/10/31/almost-4-million-votes-in-and-8-days-to-go.html

Total Ballots cast:   3,731,646

Total Vote By Mail:  1,963,274 (52.7%)

Total Early Vote:  1,768,372 (47.3%)

And by party:

Republicans:  1,509.467 (40.45%)

Democrats:  1,500,937 (40.22%)

NPA:  721,249 (19.33%)

Total Margin:  GOP +0.23%

Overall, after one full weekend of early voting, here is how the I-4 counties look.

Volusia:  Weekend: 39-38-23 Dems – Overall: 41-38-21 GOP (R+3,773)

Seminole: Weekend 40-35-25 GOP – Overall: 43-36-21 GOP (R+6,767)

Orange:  Weekend 48-28-24 Dems – Overall: 48-21-21 DEM (D+36,165)

Osceola: Weekend 48-27-25 Dems – Overall: 48-29-23 DEM (D+11,264)

Polk: 40-40-20 Dems – Overall: 42-39-19 GOP (R+2,346)

Hillsborough: 43-34-23 Dems – Overall: 43-37-29 DEM (D+15,670)

Pinellas 39-37-23 GOP – Overall: 40-39-21 GOP (R+688)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Palm Beach: Weekend: 47-27-24 DEM -- Overall: 49-29-22 DEM (+41,620)

Broward:  Weekend: 57-21-22 DEM -- Overall: 57-23-20 DEM (+112,775)

Miami-Dade: Weekend: 43-29-28 DEM -- Overall: 45-31-24 DEM (+53,518)

Not too shabby!

[Dr. Arch]

Two big ?'s are going to plague us all the way through, and thus make FL and NC extremely difficult:

1. What are all these new UAFs doing?

2. How big of an effect is the great Dixiecrat purge?

The answer to those two questions will decide the Southeast coast.

NV, meanwhile, looks settled.

Checkmark!

[Dr. Arch]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

Good?

[Dr. Arch]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

The dynamics of the race are different. We're expecting higher Hispanic turnout and for HRC to pick up a significantly larger share of the educated vote, both of these must be factored in when looking at NC and FL, respectively.

Note that there will almost surely be a lot of crossover vote from normally R Cuban-American voters at the presidential ticket. Similarly, in NC, a state with a significant chunk of an educated populace, even though the AA turnout is down for now, the educated White vote will be propelling her to compensate for that and beyond what Obama did in 2012.

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

Disaffected moderates?

[Dr. Arch]

Per http://www.electproject.org/early_2016, over 23 million people have voted with many states not having updated from the weekend yet. The number corresponds to 50% of the EV count in 2012 with several days to go before it stops.

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

Why because im pointing the OBVIOUS out that AA and hispanic will turn out not even close to Obama levels for Hillary? If that's insane, i guess like i said we will find out soon.

Insane because you somehow think that Romney and Trump have built up the same image with Hispanics in general and that Trump can perform like him because of that. That's what's insane.

[Dr. Arch]

More on NC and the AA vote: NAACP sues the state for voter registration purge right before the election.

"The North Carolina NAACP has filed a federal lawsuit to stop county election boards in the state from canceling voter registrations ― in what the group argues is an effort by the state Republican Party to suppress the black vote.

Thousands of voter registrations have already been canceled by election boards in Beaufort, Moore and Cumberland counties because a mailing to the voters’ addresses was returned as undeliverable."

Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-carolina-naacp-voter-suppression_us_5817634fe4b064e1b4b385df

[Dr. Arch]

R's did close the gap in CO a bit today, though. (but all ballots may not be in yet)

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Exactly

[Dr. Arch]

Thanks for posting that, I must have forgotten to in the midst of the last few hours. Their good days can keep looking that way, as far as I'm concerned. Very interested to see what Clark looks like; we've got to be knocking on that Clark 50k firewall after today.

Any updates on the full returns from CO?

[Dr. Arch]

Wisconsin early vote stats, 10/31

Approximately 465K ballots have been cast in Wisconsin

Dane and Milwaukee Counties now make up 30.4% of the overall vote. They were 26% of the statewide vote in 2012 (Dane County has a crazy turnout right now)

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties now make up 16% of the overall vote. They were 12.3% of the overall statewide vote. It appears as if both major bases are overperforming, but Dane + Milwaukee is overperforming a little more than the WOW counties. If Dane + Milwaukee make up 30% or more of the statewide vote, Wisconsin will be an easy Hillary win

Safe D. Hillary signs everywhere and the anti-Trump sentiment is a strong driver alongside the fact that we want Feingold back!

[Dr. Arch]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

VBM looks really good, but the early vote not so much. We'll see what happens.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

Stop panicking. Let's talk again next Monday, okay? I understand your concern, but let's be patient.

[Dr. Arch]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

Yea, I agree wholeheartedly. I always look forward to posts here.

[Dr. Arch]

btw...regarding the graphics posted above...

30% of those EV hispanics are...first time voters.

make your own assumptions.

That's an important note.