The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

Could be a partial mixture of the two as well.

If it was one sub-sample from one state, then there is no trend. When we are seeing this out of every single state, then you can see the possible landslide because indies usually split evenly and the GOP usually stays 90% or more on its side. The fact that Clinton has 10% more of her base than Trump has of his is hugely important

Good point. I'm all for a landslide

[Dr. Arch]

Of 998.2k Ds voted,

59.5% w

13.4% H

22.3% b

Of 1.01m Rs voted,

85.7% w

10.5% H

.7% b


https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/791841359892213760


seems like a strong hispanic GOP vote right now...and an abysmal black vote.

Where is this?

[Dr. Arch]

Where is this?

pardon, still florida.

tons and tons of data....

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

[Dr. Arch]

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

they are still lacking regarding hispanic support but they have potential.

in 3-4 days the experts promise they can deliver good projections.

Thanks. Please keep us updated. It's much appreciated

[Dr. Arch]

16 million mark has been passed, as per: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

It is currently 35% of the 2012 total with a big early vote weekend coming up.

[Dr. Arch]

All signs point to a very high turnout election. Good news for Democrats, of course.

[Dr. Arch]

Some more on Florida:

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The Angry Puerto Rican vote will push FL into the higher single-digits.

P.S. Any updates on the complete totals from NV today?

[Dr. Arch]

This is the last early vote weekend, correct? I'm looking forward to updates. If we can lock down NV and CO, it's over.

[Dr. Arch]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

Disappointed for half a percentage point? Let's wait until after the weekend. There should be a wave of voters coming in then.

[Dr. Arch]

What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

A lot of Republican and last-minute undecided voters breaking with the top ticket most likely.

[Dr. Arch]

Does anyone have any current thinking of Florida and Colorado?

What timing! Schale just posted his pre-weekend thoughts on FL.

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/29/florida-day-10-and-it-is-fsuclemson.html

Overall good news.

[Dr. Arch]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

You rock!

[Dr. Arch]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

No updates on the site yet. I've been tracking sporadically throughout the day.

[Dr. Arch]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.

#BS-E-Mail Motivation

[Dr. Arch]

@RalstonReports  17s seconds ago

Turnout today in Clark County is going to be higher than Friday. 24,000 by 3 PM. It was 22,000 at same time Friday.



Any fear about turnout being down early in the day seems to have been unnecessary (...as usual).

Democratic base furious with Comey and taking it out on Comey and Trump. For reference, turnout on the same day in Clark was only 2000 higher, so we're looking to exceed 2012 at least on this metric

I was livid yesterday, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels insulted in the same way, and I'm not even a partisan voter.

[Dr. Arch]

Does http://www.electproject.org/early_2016 not update during the weekends? There have barely been any today except from a couple of states.

[Dr. Arch]

Jon Ralston ‏2m ago

Dems won Clark by 4,000 today.

Dems – 14226

GOP – 10015

NP – 6829

About like 2012

Dems up about 44.000 in Clark now.

Wonderful news.

[Dr. Arch]

"In 2008, the early voting calendar was similar to this one, though the GOP went in with a much larger VBM lead.  If memory serves me right, it was the weekend when Democrats overtook the GOP. "


So if Democrats haven't taken the lead in raw votes by the end of the day, they're in trouble.

What state are you referring to?

[Dr. Arch]

I'm hearing conflicted things about Florida. Some people are saying that Dems have the edge, and others are saying that Republicans are doing remarkably well.

Which is it?

Read again my reply above.

Here is some better advice, dont read his post

[Dr. Arch]

some democratic good mood porn from NC:

https://twitter.com/j_fuller/status/792777675718950913?lang=de

GO GO GO!

[Dr. Arch]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):




https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

Texas will be a battleground after all

Sending out the bat-signal for NOVA Green on this. It looks like about 2/3 of the total voter registration spike in TX was Hispanic and most of the increased turnout in all these large TX counties is Hispanic

Wouldn't it be hysterical if the final map was something like this?  I know it's not realistic (if TX goes D, then AZ and FL almost certainly do too):  282-256 D

I have to say I'm not particularly excited about this.  Unless Trump or a Trump-like candidate actually becomes president and Hispanic turnout spikes in the midterm as well, all Texas is going to do for Democrats any time in the next 12 years is make life miserable for them in the EC.

Regarding Florida, I do think we need to keep in mind that Hispanics of Caribbean descent might not be anywhere near as offended by Trump as those of Mexican descent are.

Trust me, we are.

[Dr. Arch]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

[Dr. Arch]

On an interesting note, Louisiana is already at 102% of their total 2012 returns, with D's leading by about 5%, not that I think that means anything in particular for this state.

[Dr. Arch]

if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.

But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.

Remember that the big swing in NC will be in the triangle area with Educated Whites. Don't expect the African American vote to be the sole carrier of it.

[Dr. Arch]

if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.

But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.

Remember that the big swing in NC will be in the triangle area with Educated Whites. Don't expect the African American vote to be the sole carrier of it.

It's not just about winning for me here, tbh. If African-American stays down, it will have meant that the GOP's disgusting voter suppression efforts actually worked. That would be awful regardless of the outcome.

These communities have been fighting this BS for hundreds of years. Don't expect them to give up easily even if they're temporarily slowed down