Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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The Russian Federation had been on this CoE human rights body since the mid-1990s:

Council of Europe expels Russia from human rights body

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Russia’s fumbling invasion, visualized





Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/17/russias-fumbling-invasion-visualized/

By the beginning of 1967, the total cumulative amount of American adviser/combat deaths in Vietnam (beginning in the late 1950s) reached ~8,700:



If these figures are to be believed, Russia is already more than halfway there after three weeks in Ukraine.  

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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1504412350102839298

No, you don't.

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I knew it was bad, but I didn't realize just how short on manpower Russia really is:

Putin has committed 75 percent of Russia's total military to the Ukraine war, Pentagon estimates

"It's pretty clear that Russian generals are running out of time, ammunition, and manpower," CEPA's Hodges wrote. "There is no suggestion that the Russians have big units lurking in the woods somewhere," and "it's apparent that the notional 900,000 strength of the Russian military is a hollow number. " Russia will call up another 130,000 conscripts on April 1, he added, but while "the Ukrainian diaspora is flocking home to help the fight; Russians are not coming back home — and indeed, many are leaving to avoid Putin's fight."

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It has been obvious from the beginning, Putin doesn't want a diplomatic solution. While Macron and Scholz have good intentions, their calls are a waste of time. Tbh, as much as I like the bloodshed to end, at this point I don't even want a false peace agreement and forced neutrality, I hope Russia is defeated in the war, resulting in an end of Putler's reign, including a return of Crimea.

You're not alone in that sentiment.  We are on the cusp of seeing Russia lose its status as a Great Power as a result of the war in Ukraine.  And with Vladimir Putin gone and Russia much shrunken in its power and influence, there is also the prospect of a great authoritarian Eurasian Axis alliance being stillborn with the People's Republic of China being shorn of its greatest ally and left to face a vengeful West alone led by the United States. 

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Some Russians are breaking through Putin’s digital iron curtain — leading to fights with friends and family

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https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1505631245220421633

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Here is a question:

Who has the upper hand in these negotiations?  Who is negotiating from a 'position of strength'?  Is it Zelenskyy or Putin?  

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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1505955060408324103?s=20&t=9qj3TS...

For comparison's sake, Stalin didn't conscript teenagers into the Red Army until 1943, two years after Operation Barbarossa brought the Soviet Union into the Second World War.  And even then they were only sent to rear units or to replace those that were transferred from other parts of the Soviet Union to fight the Germans -and not into combat.  

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Is there any more evidence that the replacements will fight with any more elan than those whom they replaced? That excellent Atlantic article linked above says half of the equipment captured is destroyed -  and half is in good condition, which means surrender or abandonment. The Russian military so far seems good pressing buttons to shoot off missiles from afar in Russia (where they are safe from capture or abandonment), and shooting at civilians, but not much else. Putin keeps doubling down though. That's the really frightening part.

Interesting that you should mention that:

https://twitter.com/irinatsukerman_/status/1505978477530468360

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US sending secretly acquired Soviet air defense equipment to Ukraine: report

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Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

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Seems like Lukashenko has more sense then Putin.

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1506466784815288327

 Whoever expected that Lukashenko would play the role, albeit even tentatively and borderline, as an FF in this conflict?

He isn't stupid.

He knows that if he sent his troops into Ukraine, there would be another coup and he probably won't be able to survive this one.

 Oh I get it. He is still fundamentally a dictatorial POS and abuser of human rights. And i totally agree hes acting in self interest.

But at the same time as that Twitter feed notes he is risking Putin trying to take him out with a coup as well. I understand that he is that he is just balancing the odds as to which to which decision will more likely oust him from power, and if it turns 51% in favor of being ousted by not invading then he'll send the troops in. It's just odd that even through naked self interest and real politic he is making decisions that benefit the Ukraine and liberal democracy..

Here is a 'balancing act' for Alexander Lukashenko -he orders the Belarusian military to invade western Ukraine in accordance with Putin's wishes, and then immediately gets on a plane with his one-way ticket to Moscow to join his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yanukovych in exile.  If nothing else, he has a better chance at survival and self-preservation while avoiding accountability than with any other plan.  

You Russia could come out with less territory than when it started?

Among other things, we should certainly demand that Russia return its ill-gotten territorial gains and return to its pre-2008 borders and a demilitarized Kaliningrad as a precondition of ending sanctions if they are to have any hope of rescuing their economy.  

But above all else, we should demand an end to Vladimir Putin's regime, and that he must step down permanently from power and face accountability before the International Criminal Court (he is a war criminal, after all).

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In the event Belarus does invade Ukraine, what does Zelenskyy have up north to counter them?  

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I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

I think you are geographically confused.  Check Google Maps.  I am assuming you mean that the highest priority for Ukraine is to push the Russians back across the Dneiper from Kherson city, and prevent them from re-establishing a foothold on the western bank from which they can then attack Odessa overland.  

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I am seeing chatter online that is claiming that the entirety of the Mykolaiv Oblast has been cleared of Russian forces. If that turns out to be true, then Ukraine could make a push towards Kherson.

In the south, retaking Kherson needs to be the highest priority being that the "land bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas would then be blocked.

I think you are geographically confused.  Check Google Maps.  I am assuming you mean that the highest priority for Ukraine is to push the Russians back across the Dneiper from Kherson, and prevent them from re-establishing a foothold on the western bank from which they can then attack Odessa overland.  

I suspect he's referring to the whole of Kherson Oblast, not just the city. Both routes to Crimea go through Kherson Obl.

If that truly is the case, then it seems the Ukrainians really are biting off more than they can chew.  With their more limited resources, establishing a fortified border along the western bank of the Dneiper (once the Russians are pushed back across from Kherson city) seems the more prudent move, and then devote more resources to hurling the Russians back from the approaches to Kiev while keeping an eye on Belarus.  

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_{(If you get the reference, you get the reference. I'm not going to explain).}

Al won't, but inasmuch as  the Oracle of Delphi never impressed me, I will thanks to the internets (a tool that can help make more level the playing field with amazing efficiency when used properly)  enlightening me. Not everyone is a specialist in these things. Just how apt the analogy actually proves to be is a work in progress.


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/ramses-ii

Battle of Kadesh

I am going to assume that Al is substituting Vladimir Putin for Pharaoh Rameses II (with the Russians in place of the Egyptians), and we of the West (with the Ukrainians as our proxies) as the Hittites.  The battle began with what looked like a certain Hittite victory before the Egyptians rallied, sent up reinforcements, and eventually fought their foes to a draw (more or less).  It was the last battle ever fought between these two late Bronze Age superpowers, as a peace treaty was negotiated, borders were decided between these two empires, and diplomatic marriages were made to further ratify the peace treaty.   Rameses II went back home and propagandized the battle of Kadesh to his people as a hard-fought Egyptian victory with himself as the hero who saved the day.  

A century later, the Bronze Age came to an abrupt and catastrophic end.  Of all the superpowers of the day, only Egypt survived, but it never again had the power and influence it once enjoyed.
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I really hope I misunderstood Al, for this is a dark analogy.  

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I found this article from National Review a most excellent repository for food for thought. I link it for those who want to read it. While I normally give my takeaways from an article, when linking it, not this time. Part of it is the bad habit here, there, and everywhere, of cancelling the thoughts if the host has an ideological perspective other than yours.  To the extent that becomes a pandemic everywhere, one day we may wake up and find ourselves far more in Putin’s image than now, probably not however before I am dead. Human wiring is not made for tolerance or a mind open to what is uncomfortable. And no technology or drug is going to change that inclination.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/how-russias-war-on-ukraine-will-change-the-world/#slide-1

These are the observations that stood out to me the most:

We could be witnessing the death-throes of a superpower. Russia was already declining in so many measurements, from crippling demographic trends to waning economic vitality, some of which its status as a petro-power masked. But now Russia is isolated and discredited; its strategic goals vis-à-vis Ukraine, Europe, and NATO have all spectacularly backfired; its leader is an international pariah; and it could possibly face a reparations penalty for years after the conflict ends in Ukraine. This would be a country whose power and influence could dramatically fade, as it becomes a bigger North Korea with natural resources prized mostly by China.

Energy policy will be more firmly anchored to security policy. Countries will be channeling more Otto von Bismarck than Greta Thunberg in their energy policy. Germany’s decision to mortgage its energy future (and economy) to Russian oil and gas looks to be a strategic blunder of the first order — achieving neither energy security nor a more climate-friendly outcome. Leave aside the squalid spectacle of a former German chancellor on the boards of Russian energy companies. The rapid and sudden movement of much of Germany’s energy supply away from its own nuclear plants to Russian oil and gas made much of this conflict possible by encouraging Putin to believe that he did indeed have Europe in a vise. Our country’s own bad decisions vis-à-vis domestic production and Russian imports to the U.S. also rise to the level of a national-security scandal. Watch for every country to hew its energy policy to its national security in a way we have not seen since the 1970s.

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So now Putin is trying to settle for a half-a-loaf since he realized he cannot take the whole country, and wants to split Ukraine in half like Germany after World War II (not sure why the Korean analogy is being used here, though I guess it works too):

Moscow trying to split Ukraine ‘like Korea,’ warns Kyiv as separatists calls for vote to join Russia

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The overwhelming majority of these were probably Russian-speaking Ukrainians, the same demographic Putin spoke about wanting to protect from 'genocide' by their Ukrainian government as part of his justification for the invasion in the first place:

Civilian death toll in Ukraine surpasses 1,100: UN

The UN office noted that the actual injury and death tolls are likely far higher than its calculations.

"OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration," the office's statement said.

The current casualty count is from the time that Moscow's invasion began on Feb. 24 through midnight local time on Saturday.

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Desperate times, desperate measures:

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1507369164264161286

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Another worthless token gesture. I'm starting to get Bosnian War vibes. The two opposing armies fight to a stalemate. The west continues having diplomatic talks, while ever more civilians continue to be killed by indiscriminate shelling (and now with Russia, missiles). Nothing is done for years to actually to stop the killing until an "outrageous" event occurs.  

Except in this case, nothing will be done except more sanctions and empty rhetoric because everyone is scared of Russia's nukes. I read a report a few days ago quoting some American official (anonymously, of course) saying NATO intervention is unlikely even if Russia uses chemical or biological weapons.

I wish we could have a “Iraq will not be permitted to annex Kuwait. And that’s not a threat, not a boast. It’s just the way it’s going to be." moment.

To be fair, President Biden is having to deal with a war-weary American public who have no desire to involve themselves in any more wars of choice (aka, the Vietnam War Syndrome of our era).  I certainly think Biden was too timid when it came to the Polish warplanes proposal (and that he should have stood his ground in demanding that Putin and his regime be overthrown), but I understand where he is coming from.  

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https://twitter.com/MaximColch/status/1508461578416496643
what

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1508465158703796231

That should be the last time Ukrainians ever negotiate with the Russians, at least directly. 

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The video of UA soldiers kneecapping Russian POWs is looking more genuine after some work done by the OSINT community.

If Ukraine does not crack down on this, good luck getting more soldiers to surrender after they have seen videos of torture/mistreatment.

Thread below:

https://twitter.com/zcjbrooker/status/1508114632673828867

Before we get too teary-eyed about abused Russian POWs:

A Ukrainian woman recounts being raped by the Russian soldiers who killed her husband: 'Shall we kill her or keep her alive?'

We from the comfort and safety of home have no idea what is going through the minds of their captors or what they witnessed and experienced, so let us not judge them too harshly.  

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Now, for some comedic relief: