Mason-Dixon: Allen(R) leads by four points over Webb(D)

[Frodo]

I wouldn't be so quick to think Webb will win until he has taken the lead.

Webb will not win, but it is enough for me to know that Allen will not win a second term in a walk, and that the narrowness of the margin by which he wins reelection this year could wreck his presidential ambitions -at least far as 2008 is concerned. 

This poll confirms that. 

[Frodo]

Frodo, I actually think that if Allen wins the GOP nomination, the Democrats would have an excellent shot at taking back the White House. He can be easily portrayed as a Bush-clone. Which is why I want either Allen to A) blow out Webb (at least win by 10 points or B) for Webb to win. Of course, I'd strongly prefer the latter option.

Boris, if Democrats choose either Hillary Clinton (who will likely tack to the antiwar left as 2008 approaches), Al Gore, or Russ Feingold as their nominee, I want to have the option of voting Republican to save myself the ignominy of voting for some irresponsible antiwar leftist Dem.  And to do that I need to have a candidate worth voting for as opposed to having to choose between the lesser of two evils.  If a Republican were to win in 2008, I'd prefer it be McCain or Huckabee.  The country would be much better off with either of them at the helm as opposed to yet another George McGovern that my party, unfortunately, is all too likely to nominate.     

[Frodo]

And before people point out that I am voting for Jim Webb who has spoken out against the Iraq War, and favors withdrawing American troops (prematurely) from Iraq, I would like to point out that I am voting for him despite -and not because- of his antiwar stance, and that he doesn't care for being politically correct.  Add to this that I despise Allen so much and genuinely fear that he actually has a decent chance of winning the GOP nomination if Webb doesn't torpedo his presidential ambitions this November in the meantime by keeping this race a nail-biter to the very end, holding him below 55% of the vote.   

[Frodo]

I think Evan Bayh can win the nomination, he will be a formable opponent.

As a conservative southern Democrat, I hope either Mark Warner or Evan Bayh do win their party's nomination, as they are the only Democrats I could countenance voting for in 2008.  But given the strength of the antiwar left (as shown in Lamont's successful defeat of Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary in Connecticut), I am not banking on it.
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To sum up: all I am saying is that I want to keep my options open by having the GOP nominate a candidate I could vote for in the event my party goes nuts by nominating some 21st century reincarnation of George McGovern.   

[Frodo]

I think Evan Bayh or Mark Warner can win because the anti-left may swallow their social leftism and want to win more than elect someone of their kind. They went with the flip flopping John Kerry and the Dems lost. They think that Hillary is just as liberal as he is, so they might vote for the two men. They did in 1992 because they lost 3 elections in a row and went with the moderate Bill Clinton.

This is all wishful thinking -they won't go for whom they consider a 'DINO' now, especially with antiwar fervor at a feverish high, which wasn't the case in 2004 -and the longer the Iraq War drags on, antiwar sentiment within the Democratic Party will grow only stronger as the 2008 elections approach.  Hillary Clinton is likely to be as far 'right' as they will allow themselves to go...if that.   

[Frodo]

If that is wishful thinking why did they go with moderate Bill Clinton over the liberals in 1992, it isn't wishful thinking. The Dems want to win more than go with some liberal from the northeast.

Do not compare 2008 with 1992 -those are two entirely different situations.  They went with Bill Clinton because the Cold War was about over, the Gulf War ended in a complete success, and the country was finally at peace and able to focus most of its attention on reviving the economy.

In 2008, we will still be in the middle of a worldwide war on terrorism, with an ongoing war in Iraq.  National security will be front and center in a war it never was in 1992 or in 2000.  And with an unpopular war and a burgeoning antiwar movement that looks to be getting only stronger as the Iraq war continues, I strongly doubt that either Mark Warner or Evan Bayh will win the nod when Russ Feingold and Al Gore have the hearts and minds of the Democratic base, especially with antiwar sentiment as strong as it is now.