2020 Census and Redistricting: Kentucky

[Frodo]

I know that Republicans in the Kentucky Senate have a veto-proof majority in the event Andy Beshear is elected governor just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting, but what about the Kentucky House?    

[Frodo]

I know that Republicans in the Kentucky Senate have a veto-proof majority in the event Andy Beshear is elected governor just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting, but what about the Kentucky House?    

I think legislators can override with a simple majority. It might not do them much good though if the courts get involved.

I can't see why -there are so few minorities (especially African-Americans) living in Kentucky that it is hard to see the need to call in the VRA cavalry.  At least not when compared with other southern states with higher concentrations. 

[Frodo]

Of course if Bevin gets reelected look for him to change that law.

I think it's part of the Kentucky Constitution that was backed up by court rulings. Of course, the main court case I remember on this was in the mid-'90s when it benefited local Republicans.

Let me explain this a bit more now that Beshear has won. The KY law/constitutional redistricting guidelines require one to keep counties and cross-county communities of interest whole whenever possible. Now if Bevin had won, I suspect the GOP would have tried something like  "We only cut one county, we just cut it 4 times and it's Jefferson." With beshear in power, despite his nominal lack of influence on redistricting, this is not a route worth going down. The legal resources of the executive are not to be trifled with, especially once Beshear get appointing judges to the courts who already have a good number of dems from his dads days. So, there will probably be a implicit understanding that if the GOP leaves the dems alone in their turf (KY03 congressionally, Louisville/Lexington/Frankfurt/Covington cities state legislatively) then they can do whatever the hell they want in the rest of the state, and Beshear won't raise a fuss.

Jefferson county must be split once, and 2 R+8 districts could be made from that.  If I were the GOP I'd split Jeffco once making a 5R and 1 tossup map.  The 5 R districts could be at least 60% R and Yarmuth having a tossup seat directs Dem resources away from targeting R incumbents like Barr to shoring up Yarmuth.  Yarmuth could hold on, but he would attract a lot more attention from potential challengers.  Republicans could also justify this not as gerrymandering, just making a true swing seat (at the cost of the blue seat tho).  The legislature could override a veto and the map would be legal under state law since Jeffco is too big for a district.  

Jefferson County has to be split, but it is possible to draw a CD entirely within the county.  The critical question under the Kentucky laws/constitution/relevant court decisions is whether that all Jefferson CD has to be drawn.  If it has to be drawn, Yarmuth is likely safe for the decade.  I believe it is impossible to draw a Trump 2016 district entirely within Jefferson, and the GOP Rep who has to take the remaining slice of Jefferson would obviously insist on having the most Republican areas of the county.    

Well according to the letter of the law it says only split counties when necessary, not that a district must be only in one county if possible.  

Yes, but the GOP probably won't want to push that particular envelope and get into a fight with their governor, even though his influence is more  'soft' in this case. The KY courts still have quite a few Blue appointees from Beshear Senior's days, and no doubt Beshear Junior is going to get more  in place before the fight begins. Far easier to stay the course and go ham on the legislative maps since that's where power actually lies in this state. The state house lines were drawn by democrats last time after all.

Sound advice for Kentucky Republicans, especially those in the House.  

[Frodo]

Has anyone tried their hand at drawing state legislative districts, especially in the House?  Since we are most likely going to see a Republican gerrymander (but in accordance with state constitutional requirements, naturally), I'd like to see what that looks like in that particular chamber.  

[Frodo]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffdfee87-cf80-42b4-b337-8179d440eaad

33 seats on this map voted for Beshear in 2019.

Very nice!  Can we have a version broken down by partisan colors? 

[Frodo]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ffdfee87-cf80-42b4-b337-8179d440eaad

33 seats on this map voted for Beshear in 2019.

Very nice!  Can we have a version broken down by partisan colors? 

Which baseline would you prefer I use?

The last presidential election. 

[Frodo]

The last presidential election.  

DRA doesn't have 2020 election data yet for Kentucky.
2016 election data, their most recent presidential election dataset, is also a fair bit boring. All but 25 districts are the deepest shade of red. All but two of them are in Lexington or Louisville; the other two border Hamilton County.

Oh well.  2016 will do.  As soon as the 2020 data becomes available, feel free to do that one too, though I don't anticipate too much of a difference between the two presidential elections.  At least in Kentucky.

I can provide a closeup showing the only area in the state with these districts if you are so inclined.

That sounds good to me. 

[Frodo]

And the rest of the state?  I know it will be the deepest shades of red, but nonetheless.... 

[Frodo]

According to the Speaker, the GOP expects to finish their redistricting plans soon.

https://www.wsiltv.com/news/kentucky/speaker-lawmakers-hope-to-wrap-up-redistricting-plan-soon/article_c5d3ce62-b161-59f8-89bc-e3a6d6e40068.html

Which means that to speed the process along, they have to do so behind closed doors with virtually no transparency so lawmakers can (understandably) go home and enjoy the holidays with their families:

Republicans drawing Kentucky legislative maps behind closed doors ahead of redistricting session

[Frodo]

The last remaining Democrats in eastern Kentucky will likely be going extinct in these new maps, I expect.  Especially in the House. 

[Frodo]

This case concerns the maps for the Kentucky House of Representatives and the congressional districts:

Ky. Democrats argue in court that redistricting maps all but 'guarantee' GOP wins