How likely is your Congressional District to change parties in 2006?

[Frodo]

Congressman Jim Moran usually wins by three to two margins, and with redistricting after the 2001 census having made it even more Democratic, adding the Dulles Road corridor and Reston to the already heavily Democratic district (which primarily was composed of Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, McLean, and the Hybla Valley prior to redistricting), it is pretty much impossible for a Republican to win even if and when Moran finally retires. 

In other words, not likely -at all.

[Frodo]

I'm compiling a list of Congressional Districts in 2004 and by my reckoning (with 238 in so far) these are the ones most likely to change hands:

American Samoa   1
Missouri   3
California   20
Colorado   3
Georgia   12
Illinois   8
Louisiana   3
Indiana   9
Connecticut   4
Colorado   4
Minnesota   6
Connecticut   2
Indiana   8
Indiana   2
Louisiana   7

Pretty good.  I'd add the 8th congressional district in Washington state, currently represented by congressman Dave Reichert -a Republican.

His district covers much of King County east of Lake Washington- and was won by John Kerry last year, and is becoming increasingly Democratic, especially on the national level.