Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Frodo]

I really think this would be a killer ticket. Biden is arguably the strongest Dem already on his own, and Kamala has so much appeal. There's no way she's not at or near the top of his VP list. The most loyal Democratic voter group is African American women, so the party kind of "owes" it to black women at this point to have one on the ticket. I could also see Kamala the prosecutor destroying Mike Pence in the VP debate. There's also the added benefit of not having to worry about her safe Senate seat.

My only worry is that her prosecutor background combined with Biden's role in crafting the 1994 Crime Bill could cause Trump to outflank them on criminal justice reform. That possibly could diminish turnout among some black voters.

Trump won't outflank them. He wanted the Central Park five killed.

You mean lynched. 

[Frodo]

How Will Biden Choose His Running Mate?

Goal 1: Help with electability, real or imagined
Helps: Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer

Hurts: Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Goal 2: Balance the ticket demographically — particularly on race and ethnicity
Helps: Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, Sen. Kamala Harris of California, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, Abrams, Cortez Masto

Hurts: Baldwin, Klobuchar, Warren, Whitmer … basically anyone who is white

Goal 3: Balance the ticket ideologically
Helps: Abrams, Harris, Warren

Hurts: Klobuchar

Goal 4: Help Democrats gain a Senate majority
Helps: Duckworth, Harris

Hurts: Baldwin, Warren

In any case, looking at the party-based criteria, here’s how things shake out for Abrams, Harris, Klobuchar and Warren, who The New York Times recently reported are senior Democratic Party officials’ leading choices for Biden’s running mate. (We’ve also included Duckworth, who’s a more obscure senator than Warren, but we wanted to note how favorably she looks compared with her in terms of these party-based metrics):

Harris: three positives, no negatives.
Abrams: two positives, no negatives.
Duckworth: two positives, no negatives.
Klobuchar: one positive, two negatives.
Warren: one positive, three negatives.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-biden-choose-a-running-mate-based-on-electability-ideology-or-identity

Hopefully Biden will end up picking someone other than the ones "senior Democratic officials" prefer. Abrams, Harris, Klobuchar and Warren are all bad choices. Abrams is unqualified and unimpressive, Warren and Harris both ran bad campaigns and provide perfect targets for Trump (and Warren is too old), and Klobuchar is too awkward, comes with a lot of bagage and has no appeal to PoC.

Jim Clyburn reportedly wants Keshia Lance Bottoms and Harry Reid wants CCM, hopefully one of the two grey eminences will get their way.

How is Keshia Lance Bottoms more qualified than Stacey Abrams?  She just became mayor of Atlanta after four terms on the city council.  Stacey Abrams, on the other hand, has served in the Georgia House of Representatives since 2007, became minority leader in 2011, and learned to work with governing Republicans and has a number of accomplishments to her record as a result.  The only possible disqualifier is that she (arguably) lost her first gubernatorial bid two years ago.  

[Frodo]

At this point, like most people, I think it's gonna be Harris.  She has great rapport with Biden, she covers all his gaps, and it's becoming more clear that she's who he personally wants.

Except for the ideological gap. A Harris pick does nothing to bring Bernie/Warren supporters or those in their coalition on board. This was a mistake Hillary made with Kaine in not trying to shore up unity in the Party.

I think his reasoning is that Trump + his record in office (such as it is) + coronavirus-related economic downturn will do the job for him.  Hillary only had the first factor. 

[Frodo]

I really would prefer if Stacey Abrams just ignores national politics, and instead concentrate all her attention on her second gubernatorial bid in 2022.  And wins (convincingly) this time.  

[Frodo]

Biden says he expects the winnowing to take until July:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/494141-democrats-want-biden-to-go-early-with-vp-pick

In an appearance on CBS’s "The Late Late Show with James Corden" early Wednesday morning, Biden predicted the selection process for his running mate will “take until sometime in July” to winnow the process down to “the one, two, three people.”

Sources close to the campaign say the process is in the early stages, noting that advisers are not in the same room and that people are working remotely to set up a secure vetting process.

Excellent, we have three more months to speculate and bicker over our favorite Biden veeps!  

[Frodo]

I'm fine with Kamala Harris being Biden's running-mate (and eventual Vice-President).  If he wins this year and chooses only to serve a single-term, she would be in prime position to succeed him as President in 2024, and she could choose a female running-mate of her own.  And we could have what I have always wanted -an all-woman ticket. 

Harris/Whitmer 2024, anyone?  

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/1256665689676550144

If she keeps this up any longer, it could hurt her gubernatorial chances as well.  Or for that matter, her chances at winning any higher office.  

[Frodo]

Bernie Sanders doesn't seem too keen on Elizabeth Warren as Biden's running-mate:

Sanders not urging Biden to pick Warren as running mate: report

[Frodo]

Can anyone make a clear argument why London Breed is not at the top of the list? Because she seems perfect

nothing helps win the rust belt better than a super liberal (socially) San Francisco mayor  

I just think she has all the benefits of kamala Harris (youth, Black woman) without the negatives such as the Terrible presidential campaign, da and AG record) where am I wrong?

She doesn't have a national profile or DC connections. Also, no one has ever made the major leap from Mayor to Vice President. That would be an extraordinary and unprecedented ascendance.

It would also be troubling because Biden will be in his late 70s/early 80s and we'll need a VP who will be ready to be President at any time. Additionally, Biden wants a VP who he is close with. A best friend-like relationship President Obama and him have together. Biden doesn't have a personal connection to Mayor Breed.

Well wait a second.  Didn't FDR go from being mayor of Manhattan to being the president? But much more recently, in the 2020 primaries, the mayor of a very small college town fund raised like a sitting senator and even managed to eke out an Iowa win.  

I think the new conventional wisdom believes the best combo is very little record with very high name recognition.  Mayor Breed obviously doesn't fire on all of those cylinders, but still--little or no political experience = less oppo research and material to distort.  If Stacy Abrams is a top tier contender, then the candidate whose name sounds like a line from BEST IN SHOW should not be dismissed out of hand.  

'Mayor of Manhattan'?  FDR was a one-term governor of New York when he was elected President in 1932. 

[Frodo]

It will come down to either Kamala Harris or Val Demings.  As much as Biden and his team may admire Mayor Bottoms, the surname alone will put off any chance of her coming anywhere near the Oval Office.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1272705804802699265

Imagine Elizabeth Warren as Treasury Secretary... 

[Frodo]

Atlas has a weird tendency to hype Abrams up for jobs she is clearly not qualified for. I don't get the obsession.

It's not just Atlas, she's been overhyped in general ever since her Georgia gov run. Beto and Abrams were overhyped by dems in 2018 because it would be a huge milestone for either of those states to elect a non-blue dog Democrat to statewide office. Of course neither of them won, but the hype they generated gave them an unusually high level of name recognition. I think that's what it really comes down to. People remember being excited by and rooting for Stacey Abrams (as I was), and that familiarity and favorability just carried onto the Veepstakes.

*Guiltily raises hand and stands up*

Admittedly I started the Stacey Abrams hype back in 2018, but that was before she lost her gubernatorial bid.  After that, I looked elsewhere.  Apparently some haven't moved on...  

*Sits back down*

[Frodo]

Demings pretty much saying she’s not interested.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1275245272264736768?s=21

Damn.  So it is Kamala Harris after all... 

[Frodo]

Demings pretty much saying she’s not interested.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1275245272264736768?s=21

I wouldn't read too much into it.  I think she's just being coy.  Tim Kaine said similar things in 2016, that he saw himself remaining in the Senate.

I hope you're right.  And to all intents and purposes, you probably are.  If Biden listens to his family (especially his wife), Kamala Harris will likely not be his running-mate after all. 

[Frodo]

Demings pretty much saying she’s not interested.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1275245272264736768?s=21

I wouldn't read too much into it.  I think she's just being coy.  Tim Kaine said similar things in 2016, that he saw himself remaining in the Senate.

I hope you're right.  And to all intents and purposes, you probably are.  If Biden listens to his family (especially his wife), Kamala Harris will likely not be his running-mate after all.  

Is there a particular reason his wife would be against Kamala?

Old festering wounds.  Joe may be inclined to forgive and move on.  But it is usually the wife (and family) who hold on longest to grudges.  

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1290426500584476674

...

Why is she in the top tier?! 

[Frodo]

If this were an inside hackjob by Kamala Harris' allies to benefit her, why only target Karen Bass?  Why not everyone else being considered as Biden's running-mate, including Tammy Duckworth or Susan Rice? 

[Frodo]

As a Michigander, I would not at all be upset at Whitmer “leaving the state.” I’m pretty sure that won’t be a problem; it’s like she’s getting a promotion, we’d be proud.

Besides, it’s not like there’s a campaign to get to, she can still mostly govern the state. If she has to leave, there’s a competent Lt gov waiting.

That may be, but I would still be much more comfortable if she were to stay in Michigan for the duration of the pandemic and see it through, and win a second gubernatorial term in 2022, before seeking the Democratic presidential (or vice-presidential) nomination.