2015-16 Winter Outlook from the Weather Channel (and Accuweather)

[Frodo]

Winter 2015-16 Outlook: Colder South and East Coast, Warmer North

Published Sep 18 2015 09:12 AM EDT

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[Frodo]

I think they are too generous with the cold.  If the El Nino holds up as one of the strongest on record, it will likely mean very few areas of below normal temperatures.  Maybe the deep south or Texas will see slightly below average temperatures... but the north will be "blow torched" as Arctic air stays on the other side of the Arctic in northern Eurasia.

Still, if you were booking a ski vacation this winter... New Mexico, southern Colorado, Utah, or Tahoe and points south would be your best bet.

I'd still say the Cascades will have a better year than last year.. but that's not saying much at all.

With the PDO momentarily in a positive phase, and the AMO trending negative, don't you think that would change things a bit from where we were the last time we had an El Nino of this strength and caliber (1997-98)?

[Frodo]

And here is Accuweather's put on this coming winter -don't forget to click the image for the article:



The highlights: the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic gets off relatively easy, and California can finally get some real relief from their drought.

[Frodo]

Europe Winter Forecast: Harsh Cold to Bypass London and Paris; Storms to Frequent Southern France to Italy and Alps

[Frodo]

For those hoping for a (relatively) mild El Nino winter here in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, this might complicate your plans:

Record Siberian snow could bode ill for Northeast

[Frodo]

Storms would come ashore in British Columbia before diving south towards the Four Corners before pinwheeling around and moving NE basically straight towards the Great Lakes.  If there's enough cold air, it would spell lots of snow for the plains and western areas of the Midwest.  But warmth in the east.  It would also mean lots of snow and cold for the mountains of the four corners states.

I'm glad you added the qualifier 'uncertain' earlier, since our local meteorologists are predicting that we will have a warm December, a slightly cooler than normal January, and well-below normal February, with a good chance for one monster blizzard to hit our region if the cold and moisture come together at the right time, resulting in above normal snowfall.  



This is an image from another website I look at occasionally, and it isn't too far off from what the professionals are predicting IMHO.

[Frodo]

Is it looking like this El Nino is stronger than the Super El Nino we had in 1997-98?

[Frodo]

New data are in, and it seems the 2015-16 El Nino is on course to equal -possibly even surpass- the Super El Nino of 1997-98:

This remarkably strong El Niño has topped yet another significant record

By Angela Fritz
December 4 at 3:10 PM

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[Frodo]

I think they are too generous with the cold.  If the El Nino holds up as one of the strongest on record, it will likely mean very few areas of below normal temperatures.  Maybe the deep south or Texas will see slightly below average temperatures... but the north will be "blow torched" as Arctic air stays on the other side of the Arctic in northern Eurasia.

Still, if you were booking a ski vacation this winter... New Mexico, southern Colorado, Utah, or Tahoe and points south would be your best bet.

I'd still say the Cascades will have a better year than last year.. but that's not saying much at all.

It looks like you're right, after all:

Winter Outlook Update: January - March 2016 to Feel Influence of Strong El Niño

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[Frodo]

Yeah the warmth has been impressive, especially further east.  In Minneapolis it still won't approach the warmth seen in Dec. 1877 but it'll be in the top few.

The recent pattern is pretty close to the opposite of what we saw last year.  This year we have a trough in the western U.S. and a ridge in the eastern U.S.  This has meant lots of mountain snow in the west and an end to the drought across much of the PNW while there has been partial drought relief across the entire region.

As we move into January and February.. the storm track will shift southward and bring rains to SoCal and the deserts.  And there will be more snow across the east even if it's still less than normal.

There won't be too much complaining about it -the West needs that rain and snow to at least put a big dent in their drought, and the East needs a break from the record cold, ice, and snow we had the past few winters.  

[Frodo]

During major solar minimums (I'm talking Dalton and Maunder, and the like), do we know if the weather was dominated by La Ninas or El Ninos?

[Frodo]

Just days after temperatures reached a balmy 16 degrees Celsius (or around 61 degrees F) on Christmas eve, Montreal was hit by a snowstorm that gave them a record 39 centimeters (15.4 inches) of snow, breaching the previous record set during the 1950s.

[Frodo]

Thank goodness for the strong El Nino we are currently in -otherwise, we would experiencing cold as severe and long-lasting as that we experienced last year, and likely will experience again next winter once this El Nino fades away:

February outlook: Up and down temperatures, with a chance of mid-month snow

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