The Democratic base region in 50 years

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A mix of maps 1 & 3 seems the most likely, IMHO. 

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Can you please adjust the link?  You are making this page unreadable. 

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Can you please adjust the link?  You are making this page unreadable. 

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The West and East coasts plus the Southwest. 

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Here are a few scenarios, in order of what I think is most likely for the country over the next 50 years.

1. Energy/climate change is the defining issue of the day.  The Democrats become a socially liberal green party with a libertarian streak.  Their base demographic would be the CO, CT or NOVA of today.  Petroleum ties have pulled Texas back to the right later in the century.

2. The #1 issue is economic inequality.  The Democrats become decidedly more populist and the Republicans more libertarian.  The Democratic base demographic is the OH or SW PA of today.  The northeast becomes very competitive and the southwest stops trending D.

 
3. Immigration is the most important issue. The Democrats define themselves as the defenders of immigrants and immigration rights.  The Southwest becomes a one-party region, and they are on top in FL, but the Rust Belt is long gone and the South stops trending toward them.

1 and 3 are looking to happen if the trends permanently continue (which is possible), while something like Map 2, where the map looks more like it did in the early to middle 20th century, could happen with a shift of party platforms, or even issue emphasis.

If the Moral Majority continues to fade, economic issues will naturally take center stage in the South. If Democrats can then tie blacks and poor whites together, the rest is history. Republicans would counter that by trying to hold on to wealthier Southern whites (so we won't see >90% margins in SC or MS), while running a fiscally conservative platform aimed at suburbia and wealthier rural areas. There would be a focus on monetarist economics, tough-on-crime policies, and probably a more aggressive foreign policy. California, with elements of both groups, would become a swing state, as would Texas, New York, and Illinois. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and Iowa would remain swing states. The Republican base would be, like in the 1960's, in the Mountain West, the Great Plains, and northern New England, while the Democrats would be strongest in the Deep South. Chances are you would have a lot more competitive states as a whole.

A few wild cards to consider in this analysis are:

-the likelihood of another generational economic boom (this time based on the revival of manufacturing as described in the Economist)

-another huge wave of immigrants entering the United States within the next few decades, this time from sub-Saharan Africa and the Islamic world

-and where these new immigrants would likely settle (my personal guess is probably predominately east of the Mississippi)

It would be interesting to see how this would play out politically.