OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[BuckeyeNut]

Title of this thread needs renamed. This nomination is Moreno’s as soon as he gets Trump’s endorsement.

Moreno will not beat Sherrod Brown so we will have that liberal fool for another 6 years in a State that is trending increasingly Red!

Moreno is basically a Generic R who was a prominent donor to Kasich and Rubio back in the day, and has a personal story of being a Colombian immigrant who made good. I don't think there's much reason to assume he would run behind whatever a normal Republican (...like LaRose) would get. (In particular, I think Vance had basically every flaw associated with Trump endorsees in 2022 and he still won by 6 points; I don't think Brown's incumbency would have overcome that, and I'd expect Moreno to do better than Vance by just running a much more generic campaign.)

I don't know how you define those flaws, but Moreno seems cut from the same playbook. Heck, he should talk to Renacci, who might have pointers on running for office as a car salesman, a profession everyone respects.

[BuckeyeNut]

I’m not necessarily convinced Moreno is even a major candidate.  He was an irrelevant some dude also-ran when he ran in 2022.  Obviously a Trump endorsement would change that, but why would Trump endorse Moreno when Moreno was a completely irrelevant nobody two years ago?  I mean, I guess Moreno could end up the default MAGA candidate, but if so then I think Trump sits out the primary if LaRose runs.  

Imo the greater threat to LaRose is if Warren Davidson runs as the MAGA candidate while LaRose and Dolan split the non-Trumpist vote.  Plus, while Trump endorsing Moreno absent Moreno somehow unexpectedly turning out to already be a lock to win the primary would surprise me, I could definitely see him deciding Davidson is credible enough to endorse/try to coronate even if LaRose runs.  I mean, maybe Trump endorses Moreno, but I just have a hard time seeing him become credible enough that Trump doesn’t just write him off as some nobody loser.

You're right about the potential threat Davidson could pose to LaRose, whose 2022 primary performance indicated he's still struggling to pitch himself to the MAGA base. Plus, he would likely benefit from being the only candidate running with a geographical base outside northeast Ohio.

That said, you're oversimplifying Moreno's credibility and his performance in the 2022 primary, in my opinion. Moreno was on a solid upswing in polls last January, and his rise risked fracturing the pro-Trump vote to the point Dolan could have eked out a primary win.

At least, that's my theory as to why Trump asked him to drop out.  Regardless of the reasoning, Moreno's compliance demonstrates a significant degree of loyalty to Trump, and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump awards Moreno's loyalty this time.

[BuckeyeNut]

Davidson's candidacy looks more likely.

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1656027613993877505

EDIT: If he does get in, I think Davidson's got a good shot as the only candidate not based in the Cleveland/Akron metropolitan area. Trump's endorsement powered Vance's primary victory in 2022, but he was also the only candidate without a geographic base in the northeast, which also helped.

[BuckeyeNut]

Frank LaRose has won two Statewide Elections as Ohios Secretary of State, likely going to be endorsed by a vast Majority of the Ohio Statewide Office Holders such as Lt. Governor Husted and AG Yost not to mention potentially Governor DeWine.

The biggest Endorsement won't be Trump in this Primary, it will be Governor DeWine who has a Statewide Network and the particularly Candidate he endorses can tap into.

Frank LaRose is the clear Frontrunner if he runs. The OH GOP Senate Primary 2024 won't be as messy as 2022 I think and I am sure unlike Rick Scott current NRSC Chair Steve Daines will also help select the best Candidate against Sherrod Brown.

lol, no.

DeWine's deeply unpopular with a significant portion of his party's base. Hell, he failed to clear 50% of the vote in the last GOP primary. People can point to his 20% margin, but DeWine ran against three bozos after serving in statewide office for most of the past 30 years. That's not impressive.

[BuckeyeNut]

Not seeing how Dolan is more electable than LaRose; both have a strength with marginally Republican voters.

Dolan's got far more crossover appeal than LaRose, who has burnt through most of it. Ironically, that might make LaRose more electable since Dolan would undoubtedly draw an independent "true conservative" challenger if he were to win the primary. Then again, LaRose still hasn't patched up his base problem; or hadn't at this time last year.

[BuckeyeNut]

My opinion will change, but right now, gun to my head, Moreno wins the GOP nomination, and Brown wins by 2%.