OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

Moving this to Likely R. /trolling deleted

That was the wrong way to think about it.

Saying he needed 60% was in relation to the Republicans getting 40%. What should have been said is that Danny needs to win the EV with at least a 20% margin, and he still is. The question is whether he falls bow that in the next two weeks, and if we get up to around 42k total early votes.

[BuckeyeNut]

Dems don't need this one to control the House anyways

The Democrats only really need it to avoid Trump bragging and "Democrats in disarray" news cycles.

It'd also get the base fired up here in Ohio, which would be good for Cordray, who can't rely on Sherrod's coattails.

[BuckeyeNut]

They certainly aren’t ignoring Field on the Republican side, that’s for sure.

[BuckeyeNut]

Here is a potential theory why balderson isn't doing anything - he doesn't care whether he wins or loses. Whoever wins will be in congress for less then three months, at which point they go to a rematch in November. The district has a strong R PVI, and no ancestral Dem DNA, so he shouldn't lose with a regular electorate. A special electorate though right now favors the democrats by a large margin - so why bother contesting that? November should bring out more republicans, even if the environments still ends up favoring Dems.

Its a poor guess - O'Conner if he wins could end up gaining both notability and cash preventing a loss in November. But, its a theory.

If that's his strategy, it's an absolutely moronic one. It's going to be very hard to beat a Democratic incumbent in a climate like 2018.

O’Connor could definitely win this and then lose in November.

[BuckeyeNut]

They certainly aren’t ignoring Field on the Republican side, that’s for sure.

Parachuted in doorknockers for CLF are a poor substitute for campaign staff and volunteer canvassers.

They’ve got people on the ground organically too, lol

[BuckeyeNut]

The thing I'm now eagerly watching for is how well O'Connor does in the precincts that overlap with State House Districts 19, 21, and 24, which are all top pickup opportunities at the moment and represent half of the seats Ohio Democrats need to win over to break the Republican supermajority.

[BuckeyeNut]

A lot of Democrats here also voted in the Republican primary to oppose Trump in Franklin County, so the numbers there may actually be a few points worse than they look for Balderson in Franklin County.

This is definitely true.

The O'Connor internal that came out last week brings the average polling result for the past month to Balderson 48%, O'Connor 44%, Manchik 4% and 4% undecided. Oddly, all of O'Connor's internals have shown Balderson stuck at 48% going back to June, and all but two of the six polls in this race have been Democratic internals.

What that means for Balderson, I don't know.

[BuckeyeNut]

The thing I'm now eagerly watching for is how well O'Connor does in the precincts that overlap with State House Districts 19, 21, and 24, which are all top pickup opportunities at the moment and represent half of the seats Ohio Democrats need to win over to break the Republican supermajority.

Interesting.... I haven't looked at the OH LD math, let alone followed the OH State House/Senate races, but I do have a ton of raw data, if you're interested in having me pull more detailed precinct stuff later on (After the OH CD-12 Special Election results are published of course ).... 

Definitely interested, after the special.

Feel free to pop over into the Ohio thread when the time comes!

[BuckeyeNut]

Trump just tweeted about this race for the third time. This time promoting that Balderson will protect your Social Security and Medicare, which deviates from the typical Trump endorsement template.

Sounds like a weird way to promote a Republican.

It's also not necessarily a good appeal to the district, even if it is the last bastion of reliable Kasich Republicanism...

[BuckeyeNut]

The Leneghan story is old hat by now.  It’s also specifically a suit over the primary results for the general election, which was closer.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'd trust Andy Brenner about as far as I could throw him.

Republican turnout might be down around Liberty Township, where Leneghan is a Trustee, but I don't think it'll be by much.

[BuckeyeNut]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

[BuckeyeNut]

Trump has colluded with the enemy, but voting machines werent hacked. OH-12 is the perfect state to test if Dems are gonna expand that majority

We don't even have to win it to prove that we are viable as a team this november, we just need to keep it within 3 points to really prove it.

That's the way it will be spun, that Dems have trouble in Appalachia again, but the 273 blue wall is still alive

... like 36k of the +750k people living in OH-12 live in Appalachia. Why would this be the spin? Try thinking before you post.

[BuckeyeNut]

End Citizens United has a new PPP poll out with Balderson at 48%, O'Connor at 44%. No testing of Manchik.

Balderson has basically been stuck at 48% since June while O'Connor's been slowly climbing up to the mid-40's from the low-40's. That said, O'Connor's never lead a poll, and Balderson's never topped 50%. What remains strange is that of the 7 publicly released polls, 5 have been internals.

Balderson's favored to win, and I'd call this Race Tilt R as it winds down, but it's strange that Balderson hasn't released any internals with a lead over 50%. He must not have any.

[BuckeyeNut]

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

Minor point of order. Hamilton County would have enough population for a single seat I believe.

Otherwise your points are valid, if not understand the problem. Franklin County may only be divided in three, but a quick look at the map shows just how incredibly badly it is split. The one entirely Franklin County District is a clear example of packing all the Democratic votes in one District. The rest of the County letter outside set District are still rather Democratic, but not so much that they aren't thoroughly diluted by dipping into literally six or seven other counties with Republican strongholds, with Ohio 12 being a primary example.

Yeah, it would. Not more than one though. But still, if anything, that makes the fact that it's split all the more egregious.

--

And as for your other post, anything supported by Keith Faber is a mistake, and it is a favorite ploy of the Ohio Republican Party to attempt weaksauce reform before actual Ohioans do something transformational via ballot initiative. See also: marijuana legalization and PayDay Loan reform.

[BuckeyeNut]

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-stumping-for-balderson-on-saturday-in-central-ohio-ahead-of-special-election

Trump headed to suburban Delaware County to bail Balderson out. Looking more and more like things are spinning out of control for the GOP.

I don't think Delaware county is a hotbed of Trumpism.

It isn’t, but if Rep. Brenner is right and the far right is disappointed in the primarynresults and plans on staying home, this is a good way of ginning up the base, and Delaware County is central and very generic Republican.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Trump has to jump in and campaign for the R a few days before the vote, it usually means their internal polls are showing a massive mobilisation problem among Rs ...

Again, Balderson hasn’t released a single internal to counter the Democratic internals showing he’s stuck at 48%.

[BuckeyeNut]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

[BuckeyeNut]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

Pretty sure it's not. From what I've seen, the scam is being targetted to voters in Clintonville -- an affluent and activist neighborhood of Columbus within OH-12. Local Democrats are urging anyone contacted to report the incident to the Franklin County BOE.

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

O'Connor doesn't need 60% -- he needs to win at least a 20% margin. O'Connor's still well on track for that assuming everyone actually registered the two main parties is actually voting that way. (And given the strong Democratic crossover into the 2016 Republican primary, especially in Franklin County, it's fairly safe to say a fair number of those Republicans are voting for O'Connor.)

[BuckeyeNut]

As an OH-15 resident, today has been highly amusing. I would also image there will be a Democratic spike in Columbus this weekend.

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats picked up a city council seat in Reynoldsburg by the skin of their teeth last year even as they lost in Bexley and Upper Arligton — I think O’Connor will do okay.

Citation on shady campaign to tell people their polling location has changed.

Also worth noting: Cordray won Licking in 2008. This is one of the areas he has historically outperformed. Similarly, former Congressman Zack Space, who is running for Auditor, used to represent a good portion of Licking County, and won it in both 2006 and 2008.

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats winning OH-12 will cause more national resources to pour in, despite our voting for Trump over Hillary by 8%, and will also fire up the base bigly. More resources and a fired up base improve the chances of Cordray and the rest winning this November, and you want that to happen for two reasons.

1: Democrats will control redistricting, giving national Democrats a good many more opportunities in the House come 2022.
2: It will improve the chances of a major swing back to Democrats come 2020, as there will be a statewide infrastructure in place.

[BuckeyeNut]

Fitrakis is a lot of things, and I hate him, but a Republican plant is a bit far. He's on the Green Party's national committee.

--

Interesting piece in the WSJ about the race.

TL;DR: "Balderson has been an 'unsteady campaigner' who has "struggled to raise money and is failing to motivate GOP voters." Stivers, the National Republican Congressional Committee chair who represents the neighboring 15th District, urged Balderson last month to spend more time fundraising and less time on his Ohio Senate duties. Balderson “said he isn’t aware of Washington angst about his fundraising."

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats picked up a city council seat in Reynoldsburg by the skin of their teeth last year even as they lost in Bexley and Upper Arligton — I think O’Connor will do okay.

Citation on shady campaign to tell people their polling location has changed.

Also worth noting: Cordray won Licking in 2008. This is one of the areas he has historically outperformed. Similarly, former Congressman Zack Space, who is running for Auditor, used to represent a good portion of Licking County, and won it in both 2006 and 2008.

Thanks for the link. Though there is nothing in the story saying that these text we're being sent by a balderson connected group as the original post reporting this stated.

That said, I think it's fair to assume that this isn't just three or four Wingnuts who spontaneously got together in their basement one night and said hey , I've got a great idea...

I should have clarified that part was an inference. From what I’ve heard on people on the ground, it was definitely targetted at people in Clintonville.

Also the funny thing about picking up the Reynoldsburg City Council seat is that it was done by running up the score in the Licking County portion. Not by winning big in Franklin.

[BuckeyeNut]

Trump switching his visit venue is going to mess up the Pelotonia charity bike race route. LOL